Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[Webfoot Hero]

Well, if he boycotts the movie, that'll affect box office.

Seriously speaking, I have been following tumblr. It's interesting to see what they think of Marvel movies. They are actually pretty big fans of MCU, but they're really not happy about this one. 40 000 of them have reblogged a post asking people to boycott Dr. Strange. That has led to posts like one below being very common.



Do you guys think that this controversy might be harmful to the box office in any meaningful way?

I think the harm to the box office this "boycott" will do is laughable. The vast majority of people are there to see Dr. Strange, not TAO.

 

[Blade X]

Sorry to wade in on the off-topic discussion, but of white-washing the Ancient One, Scott Derrickson:

"In this case, the stereotype of [the Ancient One] had to be undone. I wanted it to be a woman, a middle-aged woman. Every iteration of that script played by an Asian woman felt like a 'Dragon Lady," he said. "I'm very sensitive to the history of 'Dragon Lady' representation and Anna May Wong films. I moved away from that. Who's the magical, mystical, woman with secrets that could work in this role? I thought Tilda Swinton."

Seems fair? A directors prerogative to move away from this "Dragon Lady" representation or is this more white-washing racism?

What a load of crap. Here's a link about the definition of "Dragon Lady". http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/DragonLady

And here is the entire quote from the article.

"The Baroness meets Yellow Peril. The Dragon Lady is characterized by her overt sexual and physical aggression, untrustworthiness, and mysteriousness. Probably wears a qipaoor kimono often with a dragon on it (even if she's not Chinese or Japanese), and knows martial arts. If she carries a weapon, it's usually a concealed stabbing or slashing weapon; folding metal fans are a perennial favorite. Is contractually obligated to have legs that would make Tina Turner jealous, to better pull off the dress.The Dragon Lady overlaps heavily with The Vamp, the Femme Fatale, and The Baroness, but is set apart by her level of stereotypical Asianness. However, please note that just because a villainess is Asian (especially in non-Asian works) doesn't mean she's automatically a Dragon Lady. Nor is it the same thing for a woman of any background to simply be called "Dragon Lady" just because she's overbearing. This trope has a very specific look and feel.If a Chinese person is calling you this, it's a compliment.Dragons are revered as fierce, powerful, wise and sensible beings devoted to caring for those under their charge. And they were the personal symbols of the Emperors, after all.Also sometimes overlaps with Daddy's Little Villain, especially if the Dragon Lady turns out to be the daughter of a Chinese opium king or corrupt leader."

Tilda Swinton:
"They need to see the film to understand why Scott Derrickson and [Marvel Studios President] Kevin Feige decided to reimagine the Ancient One as a woman," she explained. "People shouting loud and proud about needing more diversity in Hollywood cinema have got us right behind them."

In short, people need to see the film before criticising, and that diversity is actually being promoted by the movie in various ways. Fair enough, or more white-washing?

Translation "Please don't boycott our movie for white washing TAO".

 

[Blade X]

I think the harm to the box office this "boycott" will do is laughable. The vast majority of people are there to see Dr. Strange, not TAO.

Sadly, I have to agree with you, but not only for the reason you stated. The other reason why people won't boycott this movie is because most moviegoers don't know anything about Dr Strange and his supporting cast (and never even heard of Dr Strange until the trailers for this movie started being shown). So for all intents and purposes, to most moviegoers TAO is a white woman, which is a damn shame.

 

[Blade X]

They're boycotting this movie just because of TAO being a caucasian female? They should grow up.

If you were an Asian actor working in the American film industry and was constantly being denied roles (even when role was meant for an Asian actor) because of your in favor of white actors, I think that you might be singing a different tune.

 

[AlluAllu]

They're boycotting this movie just because of TAO being a caucasian female? They should grow up.

I dunno. They're standing up to what they believe is right. Kind of admirable.

I personally don't care that Marvel did not make China-defying civil rights statements with this film, but I wouldn't say that those who do care should grow up.

 

[Adamantium Man]

If you were an Asian actor working in the American film industry and was constantly being denied roles (even when role was meant for an Asian actor) because of your in favor of white actors, I think that you might be singing a different tune.

And yet, Ming Na Wen, one possible contender for the role, was there at the LA premiere, showing her support.

 

[Chesterfield]

If Wong was race-bent I could REALLY understand but some people need to chill.

 

[Ozbridge]

After seeing the movie I'll be surprised if it makes more than Ant Man number.

 

[Vincanws]

Sigh.. anyway, any news on predicted weekend box office? Still up to $75 million? I hope any boycott won't dent things too much. I mean they won't, but you don't know how crazy people really are.

 

[BoredGuy]

Early tracking is still set at $55-75m US, 60M overseas for opening weekend

Box Office Pro has it at $88M domestic/$255 cumulative, but I have no idea how reliable they are, seems bullish

 

[rayc1971]

Any idea what its budget is?

i just saw 165 million as the budget antmans was 130 million so it better do better than 55mill opening weekend im still hoping for between 75 and 85

 

[JKKS085]

It seems that they are going for a reported pb of 165M. If that holds the film needs to open in the 80M range to be deemed successful. If it opens under that it would have to pull crazy good legs which might be a challenge given the upcoming competition.
I expect it to play well overseas. The first box office reports here in France show that it's having a better start than CATFA and Thor and is actually pulling numbers just under Iron Man (we account box office in tickets sold FYI). It's also starting better than X-Men Apocalyspe.

 

[Flint Marko]

I could actually see this having a relatively disappointing run at the box office given the competition. It'll certainly turn a profit, but it should've come out sooner I think.

 

[Iceman]

I don't really have much of an idea how this will do. Middling is the word that initially comes to mind. I'm not expecting a breakout as I don't think the mystical stuff will have a broad enough appeal, but I can see it beating a lot of the MCU's early solo films.

 

[jmc]

I think this is going to get good repeat business.

 

[PPZVGOS]

After seeing the movie I'll be surprised if it makes more than Ant Man number.

I saw the film yesterday, and I expect it to make more than Ant-Man. Cumberbatch is a bigger name than Paul Rudd, and Doctor Strange has better production values and larger scope than Ant-Man (which I think was a bit better overall)

As for the movie itself, I would describe it as a good addition to the MCU, but not a leap forward such as GOTG was.

I voted for it to make over $700m WW, but maybe I was too bullish. I would expect it to fall a bit short of that number.

Needs to make over $200m domestically to be a success.

I could actually see this having a relatively disappointing run at the box office given the competition. It'll certainly turn a profit, but it should've come out sooner I think.

Apropos your ratings for this year's superhero films, my opinion would be thus: Deadpool 9/10 - BvS 7/10 - CA3 7/10 X-Men 2/10 Suicide Squad 6/10 - Doctor Strange 6/10

 

[Blade X]

And yet, Ming Na Wen, one possible contender for the role, was there at the LA premiere, showing her support.

You do realize that she works for Marvel/Disney. So of course she won't publicly speak out against casting of TAO and give her support for the film.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

75-80 million OW is a safe bet at this point and I'm looking at a more than decent multiplier of 2.6-2.7, which would mean Doctor Strange should eventually cross 200 million in domestic markets.

All the big budget movies during this time in the last few years did almost similar type of business, Doctor Strange will be no exception.

Thor 2 (2013) - 206 million <85 million>

Interstellar (2014) - 188 million <47.5 million>

Spectre (2015) - 200 million <70 million>

 

[Iceman]

Yes, hope it can do over $200m. Will be interesting to see how this one does overseas.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Yes, hope it can do over $200m. Will be interesting to see how this one does overseas.

I think DS will do gangbusters in OS markets. These first 10-12 days will contribute a lot to the BO and it has no competition when it comes to the blockbusters territory for over 3-4 weeks before FB&WTFT.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

Box office info from France, UK and Southern Korea.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...-features-an-intense-crash-sequence/?page=258

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...-£382m-488m-miss-perigrine-£67m-89m/?page=679

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...6-train-to-busan-sets-new-od-record/?page=404

 

[JKKS085]

The opening day numbers in France are very solid. The movie is opening ahead of Iron Man, Thor, Ant-Man, Winter Soldier and The First Avenger (in tickets sold). Also ahead of Batman v Superman (although in all fairness Strange opened with kids out of school). We have a long 4 days week end coming so I expect solid numbers for its first week.

 

[Henshin]

bonkers numbers for korea there, they must love sherlock

 

[MahvelBaby!]

How much would you say it needs to make to get a sequel?

 

[Spiderdevil]

The MCU is now big enough to not worry about Box office results of the solo movies, as long as it is good and breaks even

I would rather have a great Strange movie doing 450 than an average one doing 750