Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[metaphysician]

not surprised

not sure how well its gonna do since fantastic beasts comes out 2 week later and thats gonna crush at the BO

I remain dubious that Fantastic Beasts will do nearly that well. Its only "Harry Potter" in the sense that it is in the same world. . . and given its a continent away and 70 years in the past, only in the loosest sense. It has nothing in common in terms of characters or plot, and its not based on an already acclaimed source material.

 

[darthcoolness3]

Disney's Doctor Strange will have a shaky box office, since it will be competing against Disney's Moana as well in November 2016, and Disney's Star Wars: Rogue One in December 2016

 

[Zarex]

There have been five comic book based films this year so far, six if you count the new Ninja Turtles. I don't see why people would tire of seeing more than one in a year any more than seeing two magic themed films in the same month, particularly given Harry Potter's fan base. If the marketing and audience are there, people will show up.

And half of the 2016 comic book movies thus far performed under the lowest pre-opening estimates. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the two 2016 wizard pictures disappointed at the BO.

 

[metaphysician]

I'd still place my money on Fantastic Beasts being that movie. Both because Disney has much more reasonable expectations than WB, typically, and because I think people are *waaay* overpredicting for a Harry Potter spinoff that contains absolutely no Harry Potter.

 

[AlluAllu]

I'd still place my money on Fantastic Beasts being that movie. Both because Disney has much more reasonable expectations than WB, typically, and because I think people are *waaay* overpredicting for a Harry Potter spinoff that contains absolutely no Harry Potter.

I believe that the world of HP films was always a bigger draw than the character of Harry Potter.

 

[metaphysician]

I can't agree. If anything was a draw, it was the opportunity to see the super popular novels on screen. Which is to say, it was specifically the novels themselves that created the draw, first.

 

[AlluAllu]

That is a good point. I'm basing my belief on visiting tumblr, which has really taken a liking on Harry Potter. They don't talk about what a great character HP is as much as they talk about how cool it would be to attend Hogwarts. Lol.

 

[metaphysician]

That's still Harry Potter, though. This new movie isn't about Hogwarts, its not set in Wizarding Britain, it doesn't involve Harry or Dumbledore or Voldemort, and its not based on novels that are smash hits.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

I believe that the world of HP films was always a bigger draw than the character of Harry Potter.

they are. and with FBAWTFT we might finally get a story in that world that lives up to its promises. the narrow focus on Hogwarts and GB bothered me since I read Goblet of Fire. There's a whole world to write about, different wizarding communties, different cultures, the area of Grindelwald that seemed more interesting than Voldemort anyway, but all the focus of the last books was on the special snowflake wizard

 

[MadVillainy]

IM not sure if Fantastic Beasts will make a billion, but I for sure think it'll do better than Dr. Strange. Same with Moana.

They shouldve put Strange in October. I mean there's like nothing that wouldve stopped it and it wouldve given it more space between that and Moana.

Strange i still think will get inbetween $500-600 mill though

 

[fancyarcher]

My current prediction is,

OW: 73m
DOM: 201m
WW: 636m

 

[rayc1971]

Doctor Strange is my favorite Marvel character so I'm through the roof with excitement on this. I'm going to go a bit conservative, but if it can make more than $500 million ww I'll be very happy as well. I hope to see it become a breakout hit.

$60 mil OW
$170 domestic
$320 foreign
$490 WW

antman did 180 mill domestic so it better do better than 170 mill domestic i know the budget got to be bigger than antman budget that was 130 mill

 

[Flint Marko]

I'm somewhat skeptical about Fantastic Beasts being a runaway hit, but I'm sure it'll turn a nice profit and outgross Strange. I see both performing modestly and matching reasonable expectations, but I honestly don't know if Strange will outgross Ant-man.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Ant-Man was a summer release and it had an excellent multiplier of 3.15 in domestic markets. Doctor Strange doesn't have that in it's favor but it'll still do very well.

80 million OW and final domestic tally of 205-210 million. Overseas BO will settle around T:TDW numbers, i.e 430 million.

Overall it'll easily outgross Ant-Man in both domestic and foreign markets.

 

[metaphysician]

I think the stronger cast and less bizarre of a concept will do Dr Strange well. For all that people here might denigrate the plot as "arrogant dude learns humility while mastering magic", its much easier concept to sell than "shrinking superhero heist comedy". Especially with the cast they have.

 

[AverageMan]

I think Strange has the necessary components to be a surprise hit - in the way GOTG & Ant-Man were. I can see it doing $600- $700m

 

[Marvel]

My current prediction is...

OW: 63m
DOM: 191m
WW: 505m

Harry Potter is just too big of an obstacle.

 

[kedrell]

I think around an $85m OW and a $330m DOM finish with another $400m OS for a $730m WW total.

 

[Timebomb]

Just noticed the competition DS is going have OW. Hacksaw Ridge and Trolls. Might be the most contested weekend for a CBM OW this year and could eat into the expected haul.

 

[Flint Marko]

Oh wow, didn't realize Hacksaw ridge was that weekend as well. That's been on my radar for a while.

 

[Timebomb]

Yeah, there's only so much money to go around that weekend. I think DS might only bring in 40m OW because Hacksaw might bring in around 20m and same with Trolls. Can't underestimate the kiddies.

 

[Web-Head]

Oh wow, didn't realize Hacksaw ridge was that weekend as well. That's been on my radar for a while.

Yup...I might have to do a double dip at the movies next Friday.

November looks like it'll have some pretty good movies coming out which might hurt Strange's BO, but I think it'll be alright in the long run.

I think it should have been pushed forward here in the US too and released the same day as it will be in the UK.

 

[Blade X]

If this movie flops or under performs at the box office, it would be justified karma. I am conflicted about this movie. On one hand I hope that it succeeds since (based on the trailers that I've seen) has remained largely faithful to the source material. OTOH, I want this movie to either flop or under perform at the box office SOLELY because of the race/gender bending casting of the Ancient One and Mordo.

 

[idiot09]

Any idea what its budget is?

 

[Webfoot Hero]

If this movie flops or under performs at the box office, it would be justified karma. I am conflicted about this movie. On one hand I hope that it succeeds since (based on the trailers that I've seen) has remained largely faithful to the source material. OTOH, I want this movie to either flop or under perform at the box office SOLELY because of the race/gender bending casting of the Ancient One and Mordo.

That's got to be one of the most idiotic reasons ever for wanting something to fail.