Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[BoredGuy]

Yea, wonder what'll happen to Captain America when there's no more America??

 

[Zarex]

Steve-o knew back in May when he dropped the shield.

 

[terry78]

The Russos predicted it!

 

[Chesterfield]

Steve-o knew back in May when he dropped the shield.

Aint that the truth.

 

[brandeezy89]

I went to a theater at the mall last night and barely anyone was there which rarely happens. As soon as i got out the theater people were talking about moving out the country instead of the movie. It sucked because it was my birthday and i couldn't even enjoy the movie

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I went to a theater at the mall last night and barely anyone was there which rarely happens. As soon as i got out the theater people were talking about moving out the country instead of the movie. It sucked because it was my birthday and i couldn't even enjoy the movie

Sorry to hear that bran, anyway belated Happy Birthday.

 

[Typhoon22]

7.7M Tuesday
... if anyone still cares.

Oh I care. Getting away from all this political nonsense is the way to go.
Gonna watch this film again this week, a couple times, and bringing in friends too. Need to get away from the world even just for 2 hours. I hope other people do the same too.

7.7m is kind of terrific though isn't it ? Considering it was election day. Thought it would be lucky to make 5m. I mean when you look at the previous Marvel films they either go up or down by 3-4% or stay steady but this one actually gained 25% on election day no less. Interesting.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Watched it again yesterday did my part lol

 

[JKKS085]

Yea, wonder what'll happen to Captain America when there's no more America??

 

[Darepool]

Cap is on his way to Canada with a lot of other Americans.

 

[Bats123]

>it's thought that Doctor Strange will end up finishing its run with $750 million - $850 million. That's an incredible result, and one which guarantees a sequel as it's well beyond what Ant-Man made and right up there with Guardians of the Galaxy.

Holy hell, that would be amazing.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I didn't have a chance to catch Dr. Strange this past weekend but will likely be going this weekend. Nice to see it played well with the audience since I just wasn't sure how it'd do because Marvel seemed to start the marketing campaign a bit later than previous films.

 

[JB33]

BoxOffice Pro projects $38M for Doctor Strange this weekend.

 

[terry78]

Cap is on his way to Canada with a lot of other Americans.

Instead of punching Hydra goons, he'll just casually ask them to knock off the horseplay.

 

[TeeKay]

>it's thought that Doctor Strange will end up finishing its run with $750 million - $850 million. That's an incredible result, and one which guarantees a sequel as it's well beyond what Ant-Man made and right up there with Guardians of the Galaxy.

Holy hell, that would be amazing.

Holy ****!!! That's huge. I thought it would do Ant-Man numbers.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I didn't have a chance to catch Dr. Strange this past weekend but will likely be going this weekend. Nice to see it played well with the audience since I just wasn't sure how it'd do because Marvel seemed to start the marketing campaign a bit later than previous films.

Forshame! Boo this man!

Haha j/k homie, but do make sure you watch it in 3D because it is so dope. I can't wait to go see this again.

 

[Flint Marko]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but $750M WW seems high. I assume this will have decent-ish legs, but Fantastic Beasts could take out a big chunk out of the box office in the upcoming weeks.

 

[JKKS085]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but $750M WW seems high. I assume this will have decent-ish legs, but Fantastic Beasts could take out a big chunk out of the box office in the upcoming weeks.

It does seem very optimistic indeed. Just like the 42M sophomore frame predictions I saw floating around this week.
Without much data about the domestic performance I would say that it still very likely to get to 700M WW (210 DOM/490 OS). How much higher it can get will depend on its behavior in the face of some tough competition. Until then it's still a bit up in the air.

 

[Flint Marko]

It does seem very optimistic indeed. Just like the 42M sophomore frame predictions I saw floating around this week.
Without much data about the domestic performance I would say that it still very likely to get to 700M WW (210 DOM/490 OS). How much higher it can get will depend on its behavior in the face of some tough competition. Until then it's still a bit up in the air.

Yeah, that's about what I suspected. 750 would be great, but it's too early to reasonably say that's legitimately on the table.

 

[iEquinox]

It does seem very optimistic indeed. Just like the 42M sophomore frame predictions I saw floating around this week.
Without much data about the domestic performance I would say that it still very likely to get to 700M WW (210 DOM/490 OS). How much higher it can get will depend on its behavior in the face of some tough competition. Until then it's still a bit up in the air.

I think 210M domestic is a bit low. That's barely more than Thor: TDW made(206M), and Doctor Strange should be about even with TDW going into the 2nd weekend (TDW got 108,5M before the 2nd friday). And TDW had Veteran's day on monday after it's 1st weekend, while DS will have it this friday. It should be a few million ahead of TDW after next weekend.

And while DS might have to deal with Fantastic Beasts in the 3rd weekend, I doubt that Fantastic Beasts is tougher competition than Hunger Games: Catching fire was on TDW's 3rd weekend (It got 158M+ OW).

And with better WOM and better reviews, it should be able to beat TDW by more than just 4M in the end.

However to say that 800M is expected (like the article is suggesting), is just too much at this point. It would need very good legs to do that. 750M should be possible (~250DOM, ~500M OS). Personally I expect it to end up between 700 and 750M. Anything above 750M would be a bonus for what's would already be a huge success.

This is what the-numbers has to say about it:

On the downside, the film has already opened in all major markets, except for Japan, where it doesn’t open until January. With what it has pulled in so far, anything less than $600 million will be seen as troubling, while anything more than $750 million will be seen as a success.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/217...e-Incredible-Than-The-Hulk-with-118-7-million

 

[Iceman]

It's unlikely to get much more than $250m domestic as that is already around a x3 multiplier on the opening weekend and would be a great result. That leaves $500m to get from abroad which seems very optimistic although I don't know the release schedule. If there are big territories that haven't yet opened (or at least opened late) it would be possible but otherwise very difficult.

 

[InCali]

Heck, going in I thought anything between 550 and 600M would be just fine. 150 to 200M more would be a GREAT BO run. More importantly, the movie was really good. I thought it would over perform and voted 700M+.

Methinks our ideas about good and bad BO results sort of shift when the results start to come in. If the results are high, we tend to raise our expectations and think really good is just okay. Well, some of us do.....me.....

 

[Iceman]

Before seeing the film your box office expectations are at a level that assumes the film will of a certain quality. If the film exceeds that your expectations will justifiably go up and vice versa.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Doctor-Strange-(2016)#tab=box-office

Doctor Strange's 1st Wednesday gross is 5.06 million.

 

[iEquinox]

Half a year ago I expected it to do about 600M. I though it would be easier to sell than Ant-Man, and the spectacle would also attract crowds in Asia. When the reviews started coming in at 90%, I raised my expectations to 700M because it was bound to have good legs and WOM.

Methinks our ideas about good and bad BO results sort of shift when the results start to come in. If the results are high, we tend to raise our expectations and think really good is just okay. Well, some of us do.....me.....

I think your expectations should change if initial numbers exceed your expectations. It would be weird if they didn't. With the knowledge that a movie opened to 85M, it really would be disappointing if it ended up with say 170M. If opening numbers exceed your expectations, it is only natural to raise your expectations of the total accordingly.

Of course that does not take away from the fact that 550M would still be a good BO result. However a good BO result does not mean it can't be a disappointment. With the knowledge we have now, I think most people would be disappointed if it only got to 550M, even if they know it's still a good result.