Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[InCali]

Looks like this is going to fly by 210 m.

Most MCU origin movies run out of gas at 180 m.

Yeah. It's definitely over performing within that sub-group. DS and Thor were my favorite characters growing up (later Captain Marvel/Carol) and I think DS has one of the more compelling storylines so I can't say I'm really surprised. They did a really nice job on the movie (the pacing, if you'll excuse the expression, was pitch perfect), people like magic, the marketing (while not over the top) was good, and the actors just killed it (esp Swinton and Cumberbatch). Having that quality of actor in a movie is a HUGE help.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Incredible numbers for Doc Strange.

 

[Chesterfield]

It's crazy. I remember being worried at the lack of promo for this film and to see it performing so well is really remarkable.

 

[AlluAllu]

This has pretty much destroyed the idea that superheroes should be confined to summer.

 

[JB33]

What a great 2nd weekend hold! Feels good man.

 

[Silver Surfer]

So about that Superhero fatigue?

 

[InCali]

So about that Superhero fatigue?

He's not a superhero. He's a sorcerer. That's different.

Although I will say with FB opening next weekend, I think I see signs of wizard/sorcerer fatigue.

 

[Solaire]

So about that Superhero fatigue?

Do people still claim there is superhero fatigue? Starting to think the superhero fatigue people are suffering from fatigue and just have up.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

So about that Superhero fatigue?

more like 'bad movies fatigue'

 

[Mitrailleuse]

So does DS have a chance to end up at 700m?

 

[marcvader]

Definitely a chance at $700+

 

[Typhoon22]

This has pretty much destroyed the idea that superheroes should be confined to summer.

Can you imagine if this was released in the summer like it was originally planned ?

800m would've been in the cards easily. Maybe even 900. Surreal.

The fact that it has almost made GOTG, TWS numbers in the winter is kinda crazy for an origin SH film no less.

 

[Iceman]

Well that hold was even better than expected. People are loving this movie, and honestly a Dr Strange film could have gone so wrong.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I still think 660-670 million is where DS ends up at when all is said and done.

Domestic - 220 million
Foreign - (350 million+100 million)=450 million.

 

[JKKS085]

I still think 660-670 million is where DS ends up at when all is said and done.

Domestic - 220 million
Foreign - (350 million+100 million)=450 million.

DS posted a 60.2M week end os down 49.3% with no new markets following the domestic trend closely. It is sitting at 340M with an upcoming release in Japan that should bring around 10M more if it follows the trend of recent original Marvel movies there (namely Ant-Man and Guardians). It still has China to itself next week end (FB opens there on the 25th) and it's holding amazingly well on that market, which pretty much guarantees that it will break 100M there.
So basically it's likely getting an additional 27M or so from China and Japan. Getting another 100M from holdovers after a 60.2M week end, even if we exclude China, should be relatively easy.

I don't really see a scenario in which it misses 700M now. Unless FB completely destroys it. But then again I'm using Spectre and Thor for my projections and they both faced Hunger Games movies that opened to 100M+ during their third week end of release. Both took a hit and then recovered, and none of them were as well received as Strange or posted a second week end hold as good as Strange's.

 

[Tymminator]

It's very cool its doing well.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That IS pretty good. It was helped by the extra day, but still.....

Next week, it takes a big hit. What is typical when a movie like this (CBMs in general), comes up against a relatively popular wide screen release? 60+ % I would imagine. Especially because FB will appeal to the same demographic (like me) AND there should be an extra drop because of no holiday. I would say anything around 15M or so would be fine. Give it maybe another 12 M for M-Th and we're looking at about 180M by the end of next weekend?

Sounds about right.

 

[Wildcard]

DS posted a 60.2M week end os down 49.3% with no new markets following the domestic trend closely. It is sitting at 340M with an upcoming release in Japan that should bring around 10M more if it follows the trend of recent original Marvel movies there (namely Ant-Man and Guardians). It still has China to itself next week end (FB opens there on the 25th) and it's holding amazingly well on that market, which pretty much guarantees that it will break 100M there.
So basically it's likely getting an additional 27M or so from China and Japan. Getting another 100M from holdovers after a 60.2M week end, even if we exclude China, should be relatively easy.

I don't really see a scenario in which it misses 700M now. Unless FB completely destroys it. But then again I'm using Spectre and Thor for my projections and they both faced Hunger Games movies that opened to 100M+ during their third week end of release. Both took a hit and then recovered, and none of them were as well received as Strange or posted a second week end hold as good as Strange's.

Agreed. There's no way DS's total cume comes below $700 million. It's doing far too well. Now, if it weren't being as well received as it is, I'd say there would be a chance of it falling between $600-$650 million but that's not the case.

FB is going to obviously be incredibly strong competition, but I don't believe it'd be to a degree that it keeps DS out of that $700-$800 million range.

 

[xenos5]

That's a terrific second week end hold. Now next week end is going to be brutal (no holiday + stiff competition) but it should recover after that, since it will benefit from the long Thanksgiving week end just the week after.
After just a quick comparison with other high profile novembre releases, if from now one, factoring in its early lead, DS get TTDW legs it will end up with around 217M. If it holds like Spectre it should finish in the 238M range. The comparison is interesting because aside from being released in the same spot as Strange both films ended up facing a 100M+ opener going into their 3rd week end. Strange is obviously posting a much better second week end hold than any of those films (hold that could not be entirely attributed to the holiday) so it is still likely to hold better going forward. I tried to stay on the cautious side of predictions so far but I think DS now has a distinct chance of making 240M+ dom.

240 dom / 510 os seems to be in the cards.

I'd love that. It'd put it above Suicide Squad's final worldwide box office gross.

WB would have to be really embarassed in the event of a SH origin story outgrossing their anti-hero team movie while not even opening during the summer

 

[samsnee]

Can you imagine if this was released in the summer like it was originally planned ?

800m would've been in the cards easily. Maybe even 900. Surreal.

The fact that it has almost made GOTG, TWS numbers in the winter is kinda crazy for an origin SH film no less.

I wouldn't be so sure. It would have had bigger competition in the summer with similar big budget movies.

 

[regnak]

I wouldn't be so sure. It would have had bigger competition in the summer with similar big budget movies.

Right, Star Trek Beyond for example would have been much better off being released in say October. The competition was such that the big blockbusters cannibalized each other.

 

[Superhero 101]

Nice to see ds doing well hope it cracks 700 ww

 

[Blitzkrieg]

DS posted a 60.2M week end os down 49.3% with no new markets following the domestic trend closely. It is sitting at 340M with an upcoming release in Japan that should bring around 10M more if it follows the trend of recent original Marvel movies there (namely Ant-Man and Guardians). It still has China to itself next week end (FB opens there on the 25th) and it's holding amazingly well on that market, which pretty much guarantees that it will break 100M there.
So basically it's likely getting an additional 27M or so from China and Japan. Getting another 100M from holdovers after a 60.2M week end, even if we exclude China, should be relatively easy.

I don't really see a scenario in which it misses 700M now. Unless FB completely destroys it. But then again I'm using Spectre and Thor for my projections and they both faced Hunger Games movies that opened to 100M+ during their third week end of release. Both took a hit and then recovered, and none of them were as well received as Strange or posted a second week end hold as good as Strange's.

Forgot about Japan and iirc, DS yet to open in Argentina too. So those two will bring an additional 12-15 million easily.

Domestic - (153+12)+(20+6)+(10+3)+(5+2)+(3+1)+5=220 million

Foreign* - (257+20)+(30+10)+(15+5)+10+5+5=357 million+13 million=370 million.

China - 100 million

WW total - 220+370+100=690 million.

 

[InCali]

Sounds about right.

Always nice to get confirmation from 'The Man".

 

[JKKS085]

Forgot about Japan and iirc, DS yet to open in Argentina too. So those two will bring an additional 12-15 million easily.

Domestic - (153+12)+(20+6)+(10+3)+(5+2)+(3+1)+5=220 million

Foreign* - (257+20)+(30+10)+(15+5)+10+5+5=357 million+13 million=370 million.

China - 100 million

WW total - 220+370+100=690 million.

You forgot the Thankskiving week end boost in your domestic predictions (TTDW and Spectre dropped respectively 21,9% and 14,3% on that week end) and it's going to have much more in the bank than 5M after week end 6 (Thor The Dark World did 8M after its 6th week end, Spectre did 10M and Strange is outgrossing them across the board).

Still don't think it's missing 700M but, as you know, I've been wrong before.