Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[JKKS085]

It'll be over.

 

[iEquinox]

$2,089,025 added on Thursday for a total of $163,866,877.
http://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

Fantastic Beasts' RT score has dropped considerably, it's now at 74%. Weekend predictions for FB are also a little lower now, closer to 80m than 90m. That could help Doctor Strange's legs a little in the coming weeks.

 

[Tymminator]

I'm going to guess that FBaWTFT is going to be very frontloaded.

It still should be making $$$.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I see deadline has FB's OW pegged around $75 million. So after Sunday I can probably add "DS OW > FB OW" to the list of bets I would have lost if you'd offered me one a month ago.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I see deadline has FB's OW pegged around $75 million. So after Sunday I can probably add "DS OW > FB OW" to the list of bets I would have lost if you'd offered me one a month ago.

Most people would've lost that bet.

 

[TheVileOne]

I think Fantastic Beasts will probably do a lot better on Thanksgiving weekend.

 

[Tymminator]

Indeed, I think both Magical movies are going to do well this Thanksgiving weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think Moana is going to open strong and thus give the hold overs a bit of a rough go.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2016/11/fantast...ice-doctor-strange-bleed-for-this-1201856955/

2.) Trolls (DWA/20th Century Fox), 3,945 theaters (-121) / $4M Fri. (-67%) / 3-day cume: $17.46M (-50%) /Total Cume: $116.1M/Wk 3

Doctor Strange (DIS), 3,694 theaters (-188) / $4.96M Fri. (-67%)/ 3-day cume: $17.4M(-59%) /Total cume: $181.3M/Wk 3

 

[Iceman]

Really want to see where this is at WW by the end of this weekend. Will be a bit easier to see roughly where it's going to end up.

 

[JKKS085]

Steep drop but expected with Fantastic Beasts and last week end being inflated by Veteran's Day. Should recover next week end.
If DHD's projections for the week end hold, it should be about 8% ahead of TTDW's numbers by the end of the week end (was 6.6% ahead going into the week end), if it keeps that lead it'll finish at around 222M. But the gap seems to be growing so bearing any unexpected event it should go higher than that.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Man, f**k this weekend. First FB's OW and now DS and Trolls with near abysmal drops. Even with the last weekend having been helped by veteran's day, I really thought DS would at least reach 19 million and Trolls will post north of 20 million. Damn this weekend.

 

[NotNickFury]

Hey, it was bound to drop eventually. Plus, there's a new big movie out right now. All the focus is gonna go to that.

 

[metaphysician]

On the plus side, Dr Strange's overseas take should get a bit of a shot in the arm next week, with it coming out in Argentina. Also, a nice extra chunk in January when it comes out in Japan.

 

[iEquinox]

$4,779,000 is the friday estimate. It should get about 17 million this weekend, guess my initial prediction was right after all:

21-25 million would be an insanely good hold. Last weekend friday was a holiday. And Fantastic Beasts is coming next weekend too. I would be very surprised if it only drops by 50%.

I would expect a 3rd weekend drop of about 60%, for a weekend somewhere in the 15-19 million range.

I was hoping it could make more when websites started posting predictions of about 20m, but I guess they underestimated the effect of Veteran's day and the competition.

It should not drop much next weekend thanks to thanksgiving. TDW only dropped 22% because of that. If Doctor Strange manages the same it would end up with about 13m on the 4th weekend. It should still be very close to 200m after it's 4th weekend, it would need 6 million on monday through thursday to get there. With the help of thanksgiving I'm still confident that it will reach 200m by the end of the 4th weekend, and go on to reach about 225-230m domestically in total.

Argentina won't give it that much of a boost internationally. Civil war opened with 3.5m there, BvS with 3m and Suicide Squad with 2.5m. DS will probably open with roughly 2m, which isn't that significant, but it still helps.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2016/11/fantast...ice-doctor-strange-bleed-for-this-1201856955/

3.) Doctor Strange (DIS), 3,694 theaters (-188) / $4.8M Fri. (-68%)/ 3-day cume: $16.7M(-61%) /Total cume: $180.6M/Wk 3

 

[JKKS085]

Man, f**k this weekend. First FB's OW and now DS and Trolls with near abysmal drops. Even with the last weekend having been helped by veteran's day, I really thought DS would at least reach 19 million and Trolls will post north of 20 million. Damn this weekend.

It's a combination of Fantastic Beasts launching in a huge amount of theaters, taking 3D and Imax screens from Strange, while those contributed bigly to its performance so far, and still opening to underwhelming numbers. FB is just taking too much space (and that's a challenge for holdovers but also for new releases) and not entirely leaving up to its potential. Hence the disappointing week end.

 

[rayc1971]

$4,779,000 is the friday estimate. It should get about 17 million this weekend, guess my initial prediction was right after all:

I was hoping it could make more when websites started posting predictions of about 20m, but I guess they underestimated the effect of Veteran's day and the competition.

It should not drop much next weekend thanks to thanksgiving. TDW only dropped 22% because of that. If Doctor Strange manages the same it would end up with about 13m on the 4th weekend. It should still be very close to 200m after it's 4th weekend, it would need 6 million on monday through thursday to get there. With the help of thanksgiving I'm still confident that it will reach 200m by the end of the 4th weekend, and go on to reach about 225-230m domestically in total.

Argentina won't give it that much of a boost internationally. Civil war opened with 3.5m there, BvS with 3m and Suicide Squad with 2.5m. DS will probably open with roughly 2m, which isn't that significant, but it still helps.

with a budget of 165mill and domestic gross of 220mill is fine for this on par with thor and captain america

 

[Adder]

so i guess FB is bombing. Thats a fun surprise.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

FB isn't bombing. But it's carrying a lot of expectations baggage, so any sign of weakness is going to get lots of attention.

 

[Typhoon22]

It's def not bombing lol it'll end up making at least 100m profit but WB probably was expecting a lot more than that.

The thing that annoys me and which I hate is that even before they showed the first film they go ahead and announce 5 more. I hate when studios do this and from the looks of it, critically, it's just an ok film. Honestly kind of glad it isn't doing that great just for that fact alone.

 

[Strangefan]

This is a Doctor Strange thread, not FB, but I'm going to chime in as well. I saw it today, and while it was entertaining, and visually pretty, I admit, the ending felt too easy. With DS what magic he did felt like it had weight, it took energy. He took a lot of hits, he was innovative. FB everything was done with a flick of a wand, huge amounts were done, and no one is ever even out of breath. DS has spoiled me on easy magic (and I LOVED the Harry Potter books) and that is a good thing. It also introduced us to characters, instead of the characters just being there to give exposition about what was happening. Perhaps they will put more into the people on the screen, than just special effects, in the future movies. I

 

[NotNickFury]

It's def not bombing lol it'll end up making at least 100m profit but WB probably was expecting a lot more than that.

The thing that annoys me and which I hate is that even before they showed the first film they go ahead and announce 5 more. I hate when studios do this and from the looks of it, critically, it's just an ok film. Honestly kind of glad it isn't doing that great just for that fact alone.

How is this any different than Marvel Studios announcing things for Phase 4 and beyond when we're only in Phase 3 of the MCU?

Also, are people here genuinely not liking Fantastic Beasts- those that have actually seen it- or just looking for any and every reason to either dump on it or hope it doesn't rain on Doctor Strange's box office parade?

 

[JKKS085]

Also, are people here genuinely not liking Fantastic Beasts- those that have actually seen it- or just looking for any and every reason to either dump on it or hope it doesn't rain on Doctor Strange's box office parade?

I liked it, it's nothing spectacular, has some pacing issues but does a pretty good job at world building and features interesting themes that are properly developed within the context of the film.

That being said, FB is going to open about 15 millions under the UNADJUSTED opening week end of HPATPS (and about 62 millions under its ADJUSTED numbers). Even from a spin-off stand point that is disappointing. It's even more disappointing because FB isn't just a spin-off but the starting point of something WB is shaping up to be a proper prequel saga to the main Harry Potter series. If it wasn't supposed to kick-off a 5 movies franchise, we would probably be looking at those number differently.

 

[Timebomb]

Correct. I think the OW numbers for FB are great. Most should be over the moon for these numbers. However, once you mention a 5 film series then it changes the dialogue. It may not really impact the plans in the end but you do have to talk about it if it misses expectations.