Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[jmc]

Looks as if the novelty factor for the first film was higher than I initially thought, but then again this film wasn't on the same level as the first execution wise. Had this been getting glowing praise I dare say things would be different and it may very well have broken the opening weekend record.

 

[jmc]

That's very true, but I was under the impression that the 2x production budget break even point already takes into account factors such as marketing budget, etc.

General rule of thumbs is that a film needs to make about 2 and a half times it's budget back before it starts to turn a profit. In general studios don't get as much from overseas revenue as they would locally because of fluctuating currencies.

 

[warriorking]

One thing I'm hoping for right now is that Marvel Studios will do the right thing and retire the big three after Civil War and Ragnarok so they can capitalize on their return in Infinity War Part II. As much as I love the characters and thoroughly enjoyed Age Of Ultron, they need to make way for new exciting heroes, to take the proper time to develop them and build the anticipation around the return of their most iconic characters so this doesn't become another Sony's Spider-Man situation (which the MCU is pretty far from just to be clear).

Make room for new and exciting characters ?
So basically by the end of next week if not sooner AOU Ultron will have crossed the 1 Billion mark and we are calling it a disappointment ?

 

[Mysteryman]

Well, l do not think it was a dissapointment, either creatively or financially.

 

[KangConquers]

Don't forget, marketing brings the cost to 300-350 m.

But yeah, Disney is going to make s killing, especially after DVDs, tv rights and merchandising.

Forbes noted production costs for this movie were 331 M. This movie probably cost close to $500 M, if not a little over, to make and market (though it did obviously benefit from some tax cuts, product placement etc.)

 

[Mysteryman]

Gotta love those tax cuts and product placement.
A little bit goes a long way .

 

[DarthSkywalker]

ERC is full of ****, everyone else is saying 21.3million.

That whole "all of the sports killed it and it would make up for it this weekend" stuff never made sense. Yes it was hurt on Saturday but it made up for that with a tiny 11% Saturday to Sunday drop. It's not making up for anything because it has nothing to make up. That was an excuse for last weekend, nothing more.

The novelty has worn off, the reviews weren't as good and the word of mouth isn't as good. Those are the explanation for these numbers.

This is very true. They made up for it on Sunday. And you were right about the novelty factor, though I think the general reaction has had some effect as well. This movie just isn't nearly as beloved, and that probably has something to do with the novelty factor as well. Definitely a front loaded beast. This could be good news for Mad Max, I at least hope it is.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Forbes noted production costs for this movie were 331 M. This movie probably cost close to $500 M, if not a little over, to make and market (though it did obviously benefit from some tax cuts, product placement etc.)

Yeah, it is still going to make Disney and Marvel a killing.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Marvel/Disney have to be worried if it's a trend though.

Splitting MockingJay in two gave LionsGate an extra movie but people didn't rush out for half a movie.

 

[Tony Stark]

What trend? The fact that it's still likely the highest grossing film this summer?

This is what usually happens to a film after a record setting film. Empire lower than Star Wars, Spider-man 2 lower than Spider-man, TDKR less than TDK.

There are numerous factors involved, but it wasn't in the cards for AoU. I don't see people growing tired of these films, and even if it only finishes at 450M that's 100M more domestically than any film released in 2014.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

What trend? The fact that it's still likely the highest grossing film this summer?

That splitting the movie in two will cause the rush factor/box office to diminish the same way Mockingjay did.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What trend? The fact that it's still likely the highest grossing film this summer?

This is what usually happens to a film after a record setting film. Empire lower than Star Wars, Spider-man 2 lower than Spider-man, TDKR less than TDK.

There are numerous factors involved, but it wasn't in the cards for AoU. I don't see people growing tired of these films, and even if it only finishes at 450M that's 100M more domestically than any film released in 2014.

But roughly half of what TFA is going to do domestically.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That splitting the movie in two will cause the rush factor/box office to diminish the same way Mockingjay did.

They are making up for this with how many films they release. Civil War could top AoU for all we know.

 

[PunyGod]

But roughly half of what TFA is going to do domestically.

Aww crap you just made me realize Star Wars has the same acronym as Captain America.

I was confused there for a sec.

 

[Tony Stark]

But roughly half of what TFA is going to do domestically.

Yeah that one is going to kill for sure. I'm somewhat reserved on giving a definite number, because there's so much unknown. Not sure if it will take Avatar though, because Avatar was revolutionary in film making, and SW will be a great fan event, but it won't be that like the original SW was.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Make room for new and exciting characters ?
So basically by the end of next week if not sooner AOU Ultron will have crossed the 1 Billion mark and we are calling it a disappointment ?

Only a total *****ebag would think that, at this point.

 

[PunyGod]

AoU is of course far from a box office disappointment.

But sequels are usually expected to make more than the original. So when they don't it will be called an under-performer in some circles. And Marvel has certainly set a high bar with their other sequels.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This is very true. They made up for it on Saturday. And you were right about the novelty factor, though I think the general reaction has had some effect as well. This movie just isn't nearly as beloved, and that probably has something to do with the novelty factor as well. Definitely a front loaded beast. This could be good news for Mad Max, I at least hope it is.

I wouldn't be surprised if both Pitch Perfect and Mad Max did take advantage, assuming the film doesn't explode and do better than expected. Don't get me wrong 77-80mil is an amazing second weekend number but it's not to the same level as the first one which leaves money on the table for it's 3rd weekend.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

They are making up for this with how many films they release. Civil War could top AoU for all we know.

Eh. Maybe.

Over saturation of the the team-ups could make the rush factor go down.

It could possibly make the situation worse. If CW comes across as an Avengers lite then when Infinity War 1 comes, will just be the 4th Avengers movie.(Plus not featuring the main Avengers team.)

 

[warhorse78]

Looks as if the novelty factor for the first film was higher than I initially thought, but then again this film wasn't on the same level as the first execution wise. Had this been getting glowing praise I dare say things would be different and it may very well have broken the opening weekend record.

I am pretty sure that is exactly what happened. AOU for me, actually sucked compared to most Marvel movies. I really have no plans of seeing this a second time because I got no enjoyment from the movie. Movies tend to make huge bucks from repeat viewings, but just too much turned me off of this movie. My anticipation has now shifted to Civil War and DareDevil season 2. I don't even care to see Ant Man, because it looks stupid, and I am really not a fan of Paul Rudd.

You know, a while back, I had this inkling feeling when I read what exactly Ultron was, more or less, a robot, I just didn't see how this would be a great villain, compared to an alien attack and other worldly being like Loki, to a New World Order trying to take over the Earth. A robot, just seemed so petty, uninteresting, been there, done that with Terminator, Transformers, Irobot and Eagle Eye.

I'm also not getting the hoopla about Thanos. He seems too chipper for me for a villain. I like out right threatening/mysterious/faceless villains most of the time, such as Darth Vader, Sauron and his Ring Wraiths, Voldemort and his Dementors. Since so far, the majority of Marvel villains tend to be misses than hits, I am not having much faith that this great Thanos is going to live up to the hype.

 

[Mysteryman]

Eh. Maybe.

Over saturation of the the team-ups could make the rush factor go down.

It could possibly make the situation worse. If CW comes across as an Avengers lite then when Infinity War 1 comes, will just be the 4th Avengers movie.(Plus not featuring the main Avengers team.)

CW has almost all of the Avengers except Thor and the Hulk.

 

[KangConquers]

AoU is of course far from a box office disappointment.

But sequels are usually expected to make more than the original. So when they don't it will be called an under-performer in some circles. And Marvel has certainly set a high bar with their other sequels.

I never expected it to match the original, but I was hoping for a domestic total between 525-580 M domestic. I'm disappointed that it's performing more like Iron Man 3 than Avengers. While no one can call this film a failure, it is a soft performing based on the high standards of growth that the MCU has set for itself.

It also brings up troubling questions about the MCU's future. There's a chance that Captain America, Thor and Guardians of the Galaxy have all reached domestic peaks. There's also a chance that this downward trend will continue into the future, and by phase 4 or 5, we will start to see MCU films bomb.

So while AoU is not a flop, or a bomb, or a disappointment, it could be the first hint of an unsettling trend.

 

[Raiden]

I never expected it to match the original, but I was hoping for a domestic total between 525-580 M domestic. I'm disappointed that it's performing more like Iron Man 3 than Avengers. While no one can call this film a failure, it is a soft performing based on the high standards of growth that the MCU has set for itself.

It also brings up troubling questions about the MCU's future. There's a chance that Captain America, Thor and Guardians of the Galaxy have all reached domestic peaks. There's also a chance that this downward trend will continue into the future, and by phase 4 or 5, we will start to see MCU films bomb.

So while AoU is not a flop, or a bomb, or a disappointment, it could be the first hint of an unsettling trend.

Well, after a movie studio keeps setting the bar higher and higher, eventually it will reach a peak and harder to go over the hump. Avengers was a special movie, not just for Marvel but for Hollywood as a whole. To duplicate its success is not easy, and in fact I doubt Batman V Superman could break its record, even with the novelty of Batman meeting Superman for the very first time. And AOU is also the middle movie of a trilogy/series, and that usually have difficulty copying the previous movie's box office success (such as ESB, Temple of Doom, etc).

I think Infinity War will once again give GA something they have never seen before, and with the Russo Bros. at the helm, I believe it will be able to match or even surpass the benchmarks set by the first Avengers movie.

 

[Tony Stark]

AoU is of course far from a box office disappointment.

But sequels are usually expected to make more than the original. So when they don't it will be called an under-performer in some circles. And Marvel has certainly set a high bar with their other sequels.

No one has ever called Empire Strikes Back, Spider-man 2, The Dark Knight Rises, under performers. No one.

 

[PunyGod]

No one has ever called Empire Strikes Back, Spider-man 2, The Dark Knight Rises, under performers. No one.

Cant tell if you are serious or not because they all were called that. I said they were called under performers "in some circles" which is a statement of fact as proven by the following:

http://www.newsarama.com/7641-thor-positions-marvel-studios-well-for-now.html

While as previously noted Spider-Man 2 underperformed Spider-Man both in opening weekend and overall domestic gross despite both being very well received

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Dark...Fewer-Tickets-Than-Original-Batman-32602.html

Everyone knew that The Dark Knight Rises was underperforming compared to The Dark Knight

http://www.inquisitr.com/288306/the-dark-knight-rises-box-office-disappointment/

The Dark Knight Rises, despite its strong opening around the country, could be underperforming in terms of ticket sales

Do you agree with USA Today that The Dark Knight Rises is “sinking” at the box office?

Here are articles discussing the phenomenon in general:

https://justtv.wordpress.com/2007/05/28/box-office-misreadings/

The premise of the article is that the (allegedly) weak performance of the first three big entries in the summer movie field, Spider-man 3, Shrek the Third, and Pirates of Caribbean 3, “have not kept pace with their respective predecessors,” which suggests that audiences are turning away from sequels and franchises.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...erine-waterworld-and-other-flops-that-werent/

Did you hear the news? Apparently The Wolverine, which opened with $53 million last weekend, is a flop! Oh, don’t take my word on it, check out these various pundits which call it a “disappointment“, “underwhelming“, “disappointing“, and “the latest blockbuster to flop“. Never mind that the film had the eighth-biggest opening of the summer and that, at a cost of just $120 million, has already grossed its production budget back and then some ($140 million) worldwide in three days. The tracking swore it would do $65-$70 million and the fact that it did “only” $53 million means that it’s a stinker that offers more evidence that audiences are sick… SICK of blockbusters, right? Sadly, such an accusation can be nigh-impossible to wash off. Even if the film eventually does $350-$400 million worldwide and ends up profitable (quite likely with Fox’s overseas muscle), the initial accusations of failure will likely stick forever.