Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JKKS085]

At the same point, IM3 had another 3.3M left in the tank. AOU is grossing significantly higher in dailies so it probably has something like another 4.5/5M to do in the US (unless Disney pulls it from theaters for whatever reason) and maybe 1/1.5M or so left from other OS territories. That leaves 22M or so to get from Japan to reach the 1.4B mark.
The exchange rate though is an issue. The Avengers would have only made 29M or so at the current USD/JPY exchange rate (against 45M at the 2012 rate).

So not a lock but definitely has a decent chance.

 

[JKKS085]

Plus Jurrasic World was a reboot

A reboot ? Seriously ?
Just because it doesn't feature any of the main characters from the original trilogy doesn't mean it's a reboot in any way (and Dr Wu is back).
It's a straight forward sequel that also spends a good chunk of its runtime to acknowledge events and characters from previous films.

 

[Tymminator]

At the same point, IM3 had another 3.3M left in the tank. AOU is grossing significantly higher in dailies so it probably has something like another 4.5/5M to do in the US (unless Disney pulls it from theaters for whatever reason) and maybe 1/1.5M or so left from other OS territories. That leaves 22M or so to get from Japan to reach the 1.4B mark.
The exchange rate though is an issue. The Avengers would have only made 29M or so at the current USD/JPY exchange rate (against 45M at the 2012 rate).

So not a lock but definitely has a decent chance.

Exchange rate is also something I was thinking of.

 

[8ulk]

So basically JW will get the WW & US gross of 2015 with 1.65-1.75 bil and 650-700 mil respectively

and FF7 will get the OS with 1.160,6 bil

Its weird and unexpected for me that AOU failed to win any of the three.

I dont see SW7 breaking any of that to be honest.

 

[warhorse78]

So basically JW will get the WW & US gross of 2015 with 1.65-1.75 bil and 650-700 mil respectively

and FF7 will get the OS with 1.160,6 bil

Its weird and unexpected for me that AOU failed to win any of the three.

I dont see SW7 breaking any of that to be honest.

Well, Marvel hasn't won a Box office title since the first Avengers, so perhaps 2012 was it's peak year.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Well, Marvel hasn't won a Box office title since the first Avengers, so perhaps 2012 was it's peak year.

This year was abnormal though.

How many years have four movies (F7, AOU, JW, SW7) over 1.4 billion?

Under normal circumstances, AOU would've won comfortably.

 

[JOE]

Well, Marvel hasn't won a Box office title since the first Avengers, so perhaps 2012 was it's peak year.

Wait until Civil War comes out next year... Marvel shall reclaim their throne.

 

[universeman]

Wait until Civil War comes out next year... Marvel shall reclaim their throne.

This will most likely be the cover of EW in 2016

 

[Flint Marko]

I don't care if Marvel ever reaches those heights again, just as long as they keep making movies. I want my grandkids to be going to the theaters and seeing Avengers 13: Revenge of Squirrel Girl.

 

[marcvader]

I don't care if Marvel ever reaches those heights again, just as long as they keep making movies. I want my grandkids to be going to the theaters and seeing Avengers 13: Revenge of Squirrel Girl.

Same here. I really couldn't give a !?#% who 1, 2, or 3 is in a given year as long as I get my quality comicbook films on a regular basis.

 

[Tymminator]

All I know is, if I put out 2-3 films a year that had a solid fan base and they pulled in between 700M-1.4B WW on average, I would be pretty darn happy.

 

[Bruce Malone]

This will most likely be the cover of EW in 2016

We're still not sure how big Spider-Man's role will be?

I doubt he'll be anywhere near the level of importance to the film that Cap and Iron Man are.

 

[Creo]

We're still not sure how big Spider-Man's role will be?

I doubt he'll be anywhere near the level of importance to the film that Cap and Iron Man are.

Honestly I don't think it will matter how important he is. Spider-Man brings in people and money, even when his movies are terrible. The prospect of seeing Iron-Man, Cap and Spidey on screen will get big attention, and I think Marvel knows that and will utilize it.

 

[universeman]

Honestly I don't think it will matter how important he is. Spider-Man brings in people and money, even when his movies are terrible. The prospect of seeing Iron-Man, Cap and Spidey on screen will get big attention, and I think Marvel knows that and will utilize it.

Yep the idea of having those three on the cover of EW is great marketing believe me Marvel will market Spider-Man in CW like there's no tomorrow.

 

[8ulk]

We're still not sure how big Spider-Man's role will be?

I doubt he'll be anywhere near the level of importance to the film that Cap and Iron Man are.

Holland will be shooting his scenes for a week.I guess thats for his Peter Parker scenes. Stunt doubles may fill the Spidey scenes.

His role doesnt seem to be a cameo. Its definately more. how much more is anyones guess.

I hope Spidey gives a boost to this shared universe.

 

[Tymminator]

Heard it made close to 4M today in Japan, so word is it could make around 30M total by the end if everything holds and that would give us our 1.4B.

 

[marcvader]

Holland will be shooting his scenes for a week.I guess thats for his Peter Parker scenes. Stunt doubles may fill the Spidey scenes.

His role doesnt seem to be a cameo. Its definately more. how much more is anyones guess.

I hope Spidey gives a boost to this shared universe.

So I've heard Holland is filming for a week. Where's all this other information you're talking about from?

 

[8ulk]

^ Information about what ? About Holland shooting P.Parker scenes and stunt doubles the Spidey ones ?

Im just guessing but we do know he is filming for a week.

Its an educated guess since we all know how superhero films use stunt doubles for a decent amount of scenes especially when masked heroes are involved so its safe to assume that his role could be double the amount that his shooting schedule suggests thats all im saying.

 

[eddy]

Well, Marvel hasn't won a Box office title since the first Avengers, so perhaps 2012 was it's peak year.

They lost 2013 and 2014 domestic by a hair. It was very close. The distance between AOU and JW will be alot bigger than IM3/CF and GOTG/MJP1/AS. In fact, as the other person said, this was just a strange year. AOU's gross smashes both 2013 and 2014's top earners.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

For those still keeping score:

@ERCboxoffice: AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON opened in Japan, its final territory, w/ $6.5M. Worldwide total is now $1.383 billion.

That's a two day opening total.

 

[8ulk]

2015.

2) FF7 = 1.511,6 bil
My guess is
1) JW = 1.63-1.66 bil
3) A:AOU = 1.40-1.41 bil
4) SW7:TFA = 1.2 bil

SPECTRE - MINIONS - MI5:RN = 1 bil
INSIDE OUT - HG3:MJp2 = 0.9 bil

F4 - ANTMAN = 0,7 bil

T5:G = 0,65 bil

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

SW7 will be a monster.

Could get 1st or 2nd domestic and worldwide.

 

[Dark Raven]

Jurassic World has already overtaken Age of Ultron as 5th highest of all time. Is it going to overtake FF7 and the Avengers?

Iron Man 3 has dropped down to 9, and probably by next year will be out of the top 10.

AOU really didn't stay there very long.

 

[InCali]

At the same point, IM3 had another 3.3M left in the tank. AOU is grossing significantly higher in dailies so it probably has something like another 4.5/5M to do in the US (unless Disney pulls it from theaters for whatever reason) and maybe 1/1.5M or so left from other OS territories. That leaves 22M or so to get from Japan to reach the 1.4B mark.
The exchange rate though is an issue. The Avengers would have only made 29M or so at the current USD/JPY exchange rate (against 45M at the 2012 rate).

So not a lock but definitely has a decent chance.

Exchange rate may or may not play a role. If you want to start factoring in economic factors, you are going to be treading in some very murky waters. When you start discussing the state of the economy and using that as a predictor (ie variable) of who would or wouldn't have shown up at a movie theater, well, probably best to not go there. Trust me, statistics can get very complicated with multiple dependent and independent variables and variability (dispersion) about a predicted value can be significant. Don't get me wrong, it can be enjoyable if you're a total math dweeb, but I've found statistical analysis (in cases like this) to be a total mind game with no real world value other than fun.

 

[JKKS085]

Exchange rate may or may not play a role. If you want to start factoring in economic factors, you are going to be treading in some very murky waters. When you start discussing the state of the economy and using that as a predictor (ie variable) of who would or wouldn't have shown up at a movie theater, well, probably best to not go there. Trust me, statistics can get very complicated with multiple dependent and independent variables and variability (dispersion) about a predicted value can be significant. Don't get me wrong, it can be enjoyable if you're a total math dweeb, but I've found statistical analysis (in cases like this) to be a total mind game with no real world value other than fun.

I was merely implying that due to an unfavorable USD/JPY exchange rate AOU couldn't afford to sell half the amount of tickets Avengers sold in 2012 to ensure a 22M-ish finish in Japan that would put it past 1.4B WW. Therefore that it wasn't like some were saying a "done deal" based on that parameter alone.
I wasn't using macro-economic analysis to predict what it could do in Japan.

Now AOU opened to 6.6M over the week end, the biggest opening for a Hollywood live action film since Harry Potter 7-2, and the biggest opening week end for a superhero film only behind Raimi's Spider-Man trilogy (in tickets sold), so it's likely to surpass the first film gross in local currency. Making 1.4B WW a done deal indeed.