Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]479035[/split]

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The first Avengers was a pop culture phenomenon. Can Age of Ultron possibly surpass it?

What are your box office predictions?

 

[Tony Stark]

I think after that opening day it's locked for $185m opening at a bare minimum. Could reach as high as $200-205m, but not likely to break the record without some fudging from Disney. Likely landing spot will be in the 190's. Nothing wrong with that and no ball has been dropped. It's an incredible number no matter how you look at it.

Absolutely. This always happens on the box office threads where these huge numbers get thrown out early without being confirmed and tweeted, and when the real numbers comeout it's a disappointment because people were thinking 220M and up. If A1 had made these numbers people would have been cheering just as much.

 

[warhorse78]

Screen count is more important than theater count. The first Avengers did not have enough screens and shows to meet demand. The same is not true this time. IM3 and TA2 both had much bigger screen counts than TA1, which means it's easier to meet demand.

No it's not, like the post above you said, screen count means nothing if theater B that has it is 20 miles further away from theater A that is only 3 miles out, but has no AOU. Case in point, the Ultimate Marathon I went to. Last time, it was in 30 different cities. The thing was sold out. Also to note, sold out doesn't neccessarily mean every seat is gone, because there were like 5 seats still empty back then. They probably do that so the theater is a bit more comfortable. This time around, they may have been in 4 theaters, and the theater I was in had the marathon in 2 screens, but the theaters had at least a good three rows free. I was talking to people, many came from all over the country, one guy in particular was from Michigan. He came alone. He said last time, the marathon was held in his home town, and he, his girlfriend and sibling got to go. This time around, only he could make it because he was free, the others couldn't go because they just couldn't take the time off to go travel. If you think this opening in less theaters isn't putting a slight dent in the BO, you will be mistaken. Look it at this way, you open up a Starbucks. You don't increase your revenue by just adding another cash register. You increase it by adding another Starbucks in another part of town.

 

[JKKS085]

There's nothing wrong per se with a 190M+ opening, no one dropped the ball and nothing went wrong, it just shows how amazing the 207M opening of the first film was and how it is still a landmark even with today's ticket price, 3D, premiums and Imax.

At the end of the day (or more accurately at the end of this week end), Marvel Studios will have the first 3 biggest ow in history with only 11 films released which is in itself a remarkable achievement.

Just like how Spider-Man 2 failed to outgross Spider-Man, AOU opening below TA should make us realize how a behemoth of a film The Avengers was and appreciate the fact that Age of Ultron is coming as a close second.

 

[Donnie Darko]

So are we at the point that people are going to act like a $190 million opening weekend means Marvel is losing steam? That's absurd.

 

[redfirebird2008]

No it's not, like the post above you said, screen count means nothing if theater B that has it is 20 miles further away from theater A that is only 3 miles out, but has no AOU. Case in point, the Ultimate Marathon I went to. Last time, it was in 30 different cities. The thing was sold out. Also to note, sold out doesn't neccessarily mean every seat is gone, because there were like 5 seats still empty back then. They probably do that so the theater is a bit more comfortable. This time around, they may have been in 4 theaters, and the theater I was in had the marathon in 2 screens, but the theaters had at least a good three rows free. I was talking to people, many came from all over the country, one guy in particular was from Michigan. He came alone. He said last time, the marathon was held in his home town, and he, his girlfriend and sibling got to go. This time around, only he could make it because he was free, the others couldn't go because they just couldn't take the time off to go travel. If you think this opening in less theaters isn't putting a slight dent in the BO, you will be mistaken. Look it at this way, you open up a Starbucks. You don't increase your revenue by just adding another cash register. You increase it by adding another Starbucks in another part of town.

TA1 would have made $90m+ on opening day if it had TA2's screen count. A ton, and I mean a TON, of people were turned away from TA1 due to the much lower screen count. This helped it reach $103m in the second weekend as some of the people that were turned away in the first weekend showed up the next weekend. Phenomenal WOM also helped the second weekend of course.

 

[KangConquers]

Are we actually certain this won't still beat A1?

 

[Iceman]

So are we at the point that people are going to act like a $190 million opening weekend means Marvel is losing steam? That's absurd.

Has anyone said that yet?

 

[Tony Stark]

So are we at the point that people are going to act like a $190 million opening weekend means Marvel is losing steam? That's absurd.

No not at all. This is just part of the absurdity of what goes on at the box office forums, which is why I rarely visit them anymore. People get worked up on estimates that are often way off, and when the actual numbers come in they get disappointed. It's all silly.

 

[Iceman]

There's nothing wrong per se with a 190M+ opening, no one dropped the ball and nothing went wrong, it just shows how amazing the 207M opening of the first film was and how it is still a landmark even with today's ticket price, 3D, premiums and Imax.

At the end of the day (or more accurately at the end of this week end), Marvel Studios will have the first 3 biggest ow in history with only 11 films released which is in itself a remarkable achievement.

Just like how Spider-Man 2 failed to outgross Spider-Man, AOU opening below TA should make us realize how a behemoth of a film The Avengers was and appreciate the fact that Age of Ultron is coming as a close second.

People didn't expect AoU top outgross TA domestically (many expected it to finish lower by up to 100m), just to open bigger. And much of the reason for the bigger opening was expected to be the anticipation caused from the positivity around the first film. Every single prediction I've seen is for worse legs and if you open lower as well have having worse legs you're gonna finish a long way off.

 

[Tony Stark]

Are we actually certain this won't still beat A1?

If it performs like A1 over the weekend, it still can beat the record, but we won't know for sure until the actuals come in. Likely that it doesn't beat the record, although I still think it can come in over 200M.

There's a strong thought that the boxing match tonight is going to effect things, but I'm doubtful of that. I think boxing has been a dying sport for years, but there is so much hype drummed up for this fight by the ESPN and other sports networks.

 

[TalismanRing]

If 50m people watched boxing Saturday night (which they won't) and that kept them from going to the movies at any other hour or day there would still be an available pool of about 250m people.

Marvel films have a history of Saturday increases. Also as explained by Rth (the numbers god who gets raw data around the world as it comes in) on the Box Office forums there's also the issue of many 3am shows being added that theaters may or may not decide to count with Friday not or apply to Saturday which makes it very interesting. Did they apply most to Friday so Saturday might have a lower increase or did they hold back to count it for Sat?

 

[TalismanRing]

http://deadline.com/2015/05/avenger...office-second-weekend-400-million-1201419646/

‘Avengers: Age Of Ultron’ Takes Overseas Cume To $340M; Goes Global With $425M

Dominating the globe, Avengers: Age Of Ultron has now reached $425M at the worldwide box office. Of that, the Disney/Marvel superhero sequel thundered to $340M internationally through yesterday which was a holiday in many overseas markets. The day was worth $53M, a slight 17% drop versus last Friday.

Jumpstarting summer with a bang, Ultron began its international rollout on April 22, hulking out to $200.2M in 44 territories through last Sunday. It’s now playing in 88 territories, having significantly added Mexico, Spain, Turkey and Thailand in the offshore frame that has no new studio releases.



It has remained No. 1 in each of the overseas markets where it’s gone out. Notably, Korea — which was the 6th biggest offshore play for the first Avengers in 2012 — is this movie’s biggest grosser so far with $43M. (Edit: as of Friday it's now $49.8m) Next up is the UK ($39M), followed by Russia ($23M), France ($20M), Australia ($18M), Germany ($16M), Mexico ($14M), Italy ($13M), Taiwan ($12M) and India ($12M). That Mexico number is especially significant with Ultron just bowing this past Thursday — to $6.8M and the largest opening day in industry history.


China is yet to come on May 12 and Japan will follow later, on July 4. The Middle Kingdom was the No. 1 overseas territory for the previous Avengers at about $86M. Look for that to seem like chump change in a couple of weeks.

O/S should be $450m+ after the w/e.

 

[JKKS085]

People didn't expect AoU top outgross TA domestically (many expected it to finish lower by up to 100m), just to open bigger. And much of the reason for the bigger opening was expected to be the anticipation caused from the positivity around the first film. Every single prediction I've seen is for worse legs and if you open lower as well have having worse legs you're gonna finish a long way off.

And mine were right along those lines. I expected around a 225M ow and a 550/575 total dom.
Now I and a number of other bo enthusiasts and analysts failed in all this to take in account just how out of this world the first film's opening week end was. It seems like something that could be easily outgrossed it obviously isn't. We all forgot that The Avengers not only set an new ow record but made almost 40M more than the previous record holder on that week end. When you have an all time hit, that also means that it might be difficult to increase from that. Lessons to be learned.

I would not entirely rule out AOU breaking the ow record just yet (for all the reasons that have been explained here) even if I don't think it's likely and even if it does it'll merely be by a couple of millions which only shows how incredible that 207M number is. And that also begs the question if at the current state of the American theater park's capacity a film can gross a lot more than that.

 

[Superhero 101]

It'd be great if it passes 207 million but I think 190-200 is a safe bet to the what AOU will make during opening weekend

 

[Webfoot Hero]

And mine were right along those lines. I expected around a 225M ow and a 550/575 total dom.
Now I and a number of other bo enthusiasts and analysts fail in all this to take in account just how out of this world the first film's opening week end was. It seems like something that could be easily outgrossed it obviously isn't. We all forgot that The Avengers not only set an new ow record but did grossed on that week end almost 40M more than the previous record holder.

I would not entirely rule out AOU breaking the ow record just yet (for all the reasons that have been explained here) even if I don't think it's likely and even if it does it'll merely be by a couple of millions which only shows how incredible that 207M number is. And that also begs the question if at the current state of the American theater park's capacity a film can gross a lot more than that.

Yeah, I don't think people realize how big at the time that TA1's opening was and still is. The only movie that's come close is IM3 and that's still over $30 million short. I think analysts were maybe overdoing it a bit on their estimates but they were just using the presale and WOM data they were getting and saw it being higher than TA1. I think a good number of factors are working against AoU this time: lower critic scores, slightly lower theater total, extra competition from Mayweather/Pacquiao and the Kentucky Derby, novelty factor gone and declining 3D ticket sales.

 

[KangConquers]

If it performs like A1 over the weekend, it still can beat the record, but we won't know for sure until the actuals come in. Likely that it doesn't beat the record, although I still think it can come in over 200M.

There's a strong thought that the boxing match tonight is going to effect things, but I'm doubtful of that. I think boxing has been a dying sport for years, but there is so much hype drummed up for this fight by the ESPN and other sports networks.

Boxoffice.com and Disney itself both are predicting the record goes down. This gloom and doom over the fight is a little silly.

 

[Iceman]

Overseas numbers looking good. Hopefully get the billion up before it opens in China which should give it a nice little boost lol.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Boxoffice.com and Disney itself both are predicting the record goes down. This gloom and doom over the fight is a little silly.

Latest numbers I saw were for between $195 and $200 million. It's going to need some big days today and tomorrow to even think about touching TA1's numbers, which I don't know they'll get. The current estimates are still not bad, considering everything going on with both this film and its marketing strategy (which I think was a bit too understated in certain areas) and all the other events going on this weekend.

 

[BlackDoomShadow]

Yeah I think the TV spots for this movie were really poor. The trailers were great but the TV campaign is all over the place. Way too much humor and focus on "look, the gang's back together!" and nothing about the plot, Ultron and the twins, etc. This is a very different movie than the first but the TV spots make it look exactly the same. Avengers movies should be marketed as a massive, must-see event, not just another run-of-the-mill Marvel dramedy.

I'm sure Disney poured a ton of money into finding the best way to market this movie but I don't know if they hit the mark.

 

[Iceman]

And mine were right along those lines. I expected around a 225M ow and a 550/575 total dom.
Now I and a number of other bo enthusiasts and analysts failed in all this to take in account just how out of this world the first film's opening week end was. It seems like something that could be easily outgrossed it obviously isn't. We all forgot that The Avengers not only set an new ow record but made almost 40M more than the previous record holder on that week end. When you have an all time hit, that also means that it might be difficult to increase from that. Lessons to be learned.

I would not entirely rule out AOU breaking the ow record just yet (for all the reasons that have been explained here) even if I don't think it's likely and even if it does it'll merely be by a couple of millions which only shows how incredible that 207M number is. And that also begs the question if at the current state of the American theater park's capacity a film can gross a lot more than that.

I had similar numbers to you so looks like I'll be wrong too. The first film really did blow up the US box office by the margin of increase over the previous best, although after seeing IM3 put in such a huge opening weekend I was expecting AoU to beat that film by a long way. Still very optimistic for the overall worldwide number though and overseas markets are starting to motor with new territories opening.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Yeah I think the TV spots for this movie were really poor. The trailers were great but the TV campaign is all over the place. Way too much humor and focus on "look, the gang's back together!" and nothing about the plot, Ultron and the twins, etc. This is a very different movie than the first but the TV spots make it look exactly the same. Avengers movies should be marketed as a massive, must-see event, not just another run-of-the-mill Marvel dramedy.

I'm sure Disney poured a ton of money into finding the best way to market this movie but I don't know if they hit the mark.

It's not even the tone that were the problem; it was that I've hardly seen any during a lot of the shows I watch and that shouldn't be the case with the over 40 TV spots they've made. TA1 spots would appear in nearly every half hour and with AoU, I'll be lucky to see 1 per 3 hours of primetime TV viewing. Disney dropped the ball here.

 

[JC00]

Latest numbers I saw were for between $195 and $200 million.

Who you sourcing on this?

 

[Tony Stark]

Who you sourcing on this?

There is nothing official now. I'm not sure when they'll get some data for Saturday, but the early numbers could be misleading.

the 195-200 are based on prediction models, but the record is still in play if the multiplier is similar to A1.

People forget, that when A1 came out the 81M Friday, people were thinking 200M was in play but didn't know for sure. Disney put the weekend estimates right at 200M, and the actuals came out to 207M.

If the estimates are at 200M the record still could be in play when the actuals come in. If the number is below 200M then it will be a great weekend, but A1 will stay on top.

Regardless of the domestic numbers, this will be north of 1.6B WW.