The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7

If it has a similar opening day to Avengers it will have a very hard time overtaking it as more of the Avengers opening day was non-midnight and therefore less frontloaded.

 

yeah means it really is expected to make 15 mil less on the friday if you treat midnights as thursday. if that's true then similar should be true on saturday.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/openingweeks.htm

the opening weeks of both films maybe extremely close to each other if TDKR is received well. the summer bump may address the 3D bump.

 

I was thinking the same. But whereas I think Ledger's death attracted people, the shooting might do the opposite.

 

From on the ground theater reports for at least today it seems that pretty much every showing is still being sold-out.

 

deadline says

so a sold out DKR can't take TA's opening weekend record.

 

The record is safe, sleep easy.

 

The most exciting part about The Avengers possibly keeping the OW record is that it'll take a long time for another film to break it.

 

Variety is saying 75 mil Friday, it won't even sniff TA record.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118056884

 

The article says it will be a neck and neck haul in ticket sales. So we all knew the 3d premium charges would play a factor.

 

Iron Man 3? MOS or The Wolverine may have a slight chance? Can't really think of legit contender for it except for maybe the Hobbit.

 

I really don't think any of those have a chance in hell haha. Avengers & DKR are on a different level in terms of opening weekend demand. The Hobbit will have a great worldwide final gross though.

 

Dont under estimate peter jackson LOTR films.

 

I hate to say it but the final Twilight movie might have the best shot at the record now.

 

twilight has a rabid but small fanbase compared to both the avengers and batman.

 

LOTR definitely because there will be 3D boost. Twilight, no because it is too front loaded. Twilight may have a shot at opening day record from potter however.

I don't discount IM3 if it's a good film. I mean because most people view IM2 as "not as good" as the first they can catch an upswing. I said for a long time that DKR was an uphill battle because of no Heath, and no Joker.

I also don't discount Thor 2 doing huge business. Chris Hemsworth may not be quite an A lister, but his stock has risen significantly and I immagine he has a pretty large female following.

MOS could be huge, but I immagine it may do IM1 numbers tops, but look for MOS2 if there are going to be records broken.

 

If it's in 3D then you may be right actually

For some reason when talking about Box Office people tend to forget about Twilight, but it's a legit contender.

 

only for midnights and opening day. and harry potter fans are just as nuts for that. so it becomes a wash just equalling or beating by a tiny amount. twilights first weeks and overall box office aren't even contenders.

 

Considering none of the Twilight movies have reach over $710 million total, I'm not sure it will beat any records but possibly biggest midnight opening and opening day.

 

I don't think any original films that we currently know about will beat Avenger's record. There's no way they can build enough hype. All the superhero sequels outside of Batman which will be finished for a while after this weekend are smaller in nature and the biggest ones have all been done before (not as fresh conceptually as Avengers was). The Hobbit is not LOTR, has less hype than it should have at this stage and by its nature is likely to have a more balanced than frontloaded gross. Twilight will always have massive midnights & opening days but won't have enough on the Sundays to finish anywhere close.

Avengers already utilised the 3D boost about as much as it could so other films can match it but only a film that actually does something special technologically with the 3D like Avatar is likely to improve on that front. The OW record will of course go sooner or later but I don't think it will fall to any of the films or next sequels we currently know about.

 

there need to be more theatres, or for 3D to become more popular, or just to wait for inflation, for the avengers opening weekend plus 12 million to be beat. it's just not possible otherwise.

 

LOL @ the thought of Twilight beating Avenger's opening weekend record. Its not gonna happen.

 

"the best shot"