The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[jokesonm3]

I'm actually wondering what's going to happen to Rogue One now. I'm wondering if TFA has just given people that Star Wars fever causing many to show up at Rogue One in droves but then I'm wondering if that will affect EP8.

I guess it's completely dependent on the quality of Rogue One.

$1 billion worldwide at the minimum i predict, Star Wars fever definitely plays a big hand in that.

 

[jokesonm3]

However in terms of what film will be the highest grossing film of 2016, i believe that there are four contestants to claiming the No 1 2016 spot:

- Captain America: Civil War

- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

- Finding Dory

- Star Wars: Rogue One.

All four of these films are pretty much guaranteed to cross the billion dollar mark, which one will be number one however is fair game until release.

 

[PacificBoy]

Earl Jones returning?

Doesn't say on IMDB but very possible with the setting of the story and Vader's potential involvement in it.

TFA should get a huge pop in China but Rogue One looks set to have the bigger reception IMO because of the presence of the two big Chinese stars and Star Wars being introduced to them by TFA.

 

[danoyse]

I'm not. Jurassic World opened up during the summer movie season. Star Wars opened up during the holidays when people are still traveling and getting shopping done. It's a bit of a busier time of the year. It should still clean up next weekend though.

Yep. The theater where I saw TFA yesterday was at a mall (the same one where I saw ROTJ in 1983, only at a new theater), and after the movie it took me almost a half-hour just to get out of the parking lot. Movies were crowded, but the mall itself was a madhouse.

I knew TFA was going to have a great weekend, but I'm amazed it did this well considering it's just a few days before Christmas.

 

[Iceman]

I'm in the cinema in front of a black screen 30 minutes early for my 2nd showing, and it's filling up quick!

 

[Rocketman]

I've seen the movie 3 times, and I've never seen such crowds in all my life. And that includes Phantom Menace, Avatar, Dark Knight, Avengers, Jurassic World, everything. This is a cultural phenomenon.

 

[Sithborg]

Just saw that the movie now is on track for 238-244 OW and that it didn't break the Saturday record of JW. I am surprised that it didn't break the Saturday record.

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

Yeah, I think the weekend before Christmas played a roll. Lower matinees as people did shopping. But, it seemed to recover a bit in the evening.

I fully anticipate the biggest second weekend in history. Half of the pre-sale tickets were for next week. Christmas is the biggest movie day of the year. It is going to make a ton next weekend. Well over $100m imo.

So, is anyone willing to predict a $200 million second weekend?

Yep. The theater where I saw TFA yesterday was at a mall (the same one where I saw ROTJ in 1983, only at a new theater), and after the movie it took me almost a half-hour just to get out of the parking lot. Movies were crowded, but the mall itself was a madhouse.

I knew TFA was going to have a great weekend, but I'm amazed it did this well considering it's just a few days before Christmas.

I think with Christmas being Friday, having the extra time during the week allowed some procrastination in order to see the movie.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Deadline's early numbers are wishy-washy ********, stop listening to them when it comes to this film. We aren't going to know exactly what this film did until Monday afternoon.

 

[terry78]

So sayeth Spidey. Thy will be done.

 

[sueb1863]

The 7:00 showing I was at last night wasn't sold out, I'd say 75%. Huge lines though.

 

[Silver Surfer]

@BoxOfficehttps://***********/BoxOffice/status/678609938365571073

​

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS opened with a record breaking estimated $238.0M this weekend. #StarWars #TheForceAwakens ​

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Also:

@BoxOffice: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS: $279M Overseas Total / $517M Global Total #StarWars* #TheForceAwakens*

Half a billion in a weekend. Not too shabby.

 

[Superhero 101]

Amazing definitely hope tfa will hit another 200 next weekend

 

[Silver Surfer]

Deadline is saying that Disney is lowballing, and the actual will be 241-246M OW.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

From @ERCboxoffice:

THE FORCE AWAKENS domestic records: preview ($57M), 1-Day Total ($120.5M), 1st film to hit triple digits in 1 day, domestic debut ($238M), wide release-PTA ($57,568)

THE FORCE AWAKENS breakdown: Budget ($200M), CinemaScore (A), Rotten Tomatoes (95%), Male (58%), 26+ (63%) 3D (47%)

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-records-1201665753/

“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” micronized box office records this weekend, racking up a monumental $238 million opening and justifying the Walt Disney Company’s $4 billion purchase of LucasFilm.

That 2012 acquisition was intended to launch a cinematic universe set in a galaxy far, far away: a series of interconnected sequels, spin-offs, and prequels that would serve as a filmic parallel to Disney’s Marvel Comics-inspired adventures.

J.J. Abrams’ nostalgic take on the series of space operas George Lucas created four decades ago was a hit with critics and fans, earning strong reviews and an A CinemaScore. Its opening soared past the previous high-water mark of $208.8 million established last summer by “Jurassic World.” It more than doubles “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey’s” December record debut of $84.6 million.

Globally, “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” scored the second biggest opening in history, earning $517 million worldwide, behind only “Jurassic World’s” $525 million bow. Unlike “Jurassic World,” the seventh film in the “Star Wars” saga did not have the benefit of showing in China on its inaugural weekend. It opens there on Jan. 9.

 

[jokesonm3]

And all i can say about that is:

Spoiler

(spoilers of course)

 

[Super_Child]

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-records-1201665753/

So only 8bn short because of the late china opening? What do you guys think china will contribute to this?

 

[Silver Surfer]

Disney has went all out for SW marketing in China, they hired a very famous brand ambassador and have been churning out ad campaigns linking it with the Shanghai Disney park launch.

 

[InCali]

Disney has went all out for SW marketing in China, they hired a very famous brand ambassador and have been churning out ad campaigns linking it with the Shanghai Disney park launch.

Another shrewd business decision by Disney. I don't think anyone else can claim these kinds of ties to the world's second largest economy. I'm not expert on the subject, but I don't think other studios have ANY influence and if they do, it's not much.

SW is going to wreak havoc in China when it opens.

 

[PacificBoy]

It should do tremendously well. A couple of factors to consider though. TFA is opening in a month we Chinese traditionally holiday and travel leading up to the Lunar New Year (8 Feb). There are other big budget, competing Lunar New Year movies in the same period, and, depending on the movie, could be more aggressively pushed because they're local productions.

And because it's basically the first movie introducing Star Wars proper to Chinese audiences, it might take the next SW movie for the Chinese to fully rally around it as a franchise and property, to come to love the universe.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

TFA beat the biggest OW in history by 30+ m in December during a busy shopping weekend.

And it almost beat JW's worldwide opening without China's help (After actuals come out it might take that record too).

800 m DOM and 2 billion WW is looking good so far. We shall see.

 

[PacificBoy]

It'd be interesting to see how the BO in Hong Kong does over this stretch, as it's normally a decent indicator of how well a movie would be received in the mainland. The word of mouth tends to carry over. Right now TFA is opening alongside Ip Man 3 I believe over there.

 

[kguillou]

Wait Variety's numbers are..off aren't they? Jurrassic World made over $650 mill OW, worlwide didn't it? And if I recall correctly, the Avengers made about $620 mill OW WW. IF what I'm reading is right, TFA should be grossing close to $700 mill WW by the time the weekend ends.

 

[danoyse]

I've seen the movie 3 times, and I've never seen such crowds in all my life. And that includes Phantom Menace, Avatar, Dark Knight, Avengers, Jurassic World, everything. This is a cultural phenomenon.

We went at 10:40 am this morning and our show was sold out, as was the show before ours.