The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Filmfan93]

Half a billion in 5 days of release is simply stunning. Still keeping my prediction of $2 billion.

 

[rashad]

Wait Variety's numbers are..off aren't they? Jurrassic World made over $650 mill OW, worlwide didn't it? And if I recall correctly, the Avengers made about $620 mill OW WW. IF what I'm reading is right, TFA should be grossing close to $700 mill WW by the time the weekend ends.

No they're not off.

 

[rashad]

'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' Crushes Records, Topping Largest Box Office Weekend of All Time
by Brad Brevet

December 20, 2015

Star Wars: The Force Awakens stormed the box office and walked away with an estimated $238 million in its first three days domestically (including $57 million in Thursday night "previews") along with another $279 million internationally for a massive $517 million worldwide opening. Suffice to say, this shatters the domestic box office opening weekend record of $208.8 million set by Jurassic World earlier this year, but the record-breaking doesn't end there.

In just its first day of release Force Awakens brought in an estimated $120.5 million setting a new record for the largest Friday, opening day and single day. All on its own, that opening day was also enough to break the previous December opening weekend record of $84.62 million set by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey in 2012. Additionally, the film now holds the following domestic records:

Largest Thursday Previews: $57 million*
Previous Record: $43.5 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Largest Friday, Opening Day, Single Day: $120.5 million (estimated)
Previous Record: $91 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Domestic Opening Weekend: $238 million (estimate)
Previous Record: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
Highest Per Theater Average (Wide Opening): $57,571 (estimate)
Previous Record: $48,855 / 4,274 theaters (Jurassic World)
Top Opening Weekend for PG-13 Rated Film: $238 million (estimate)
Previous Record: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
Top Holiday Opening Weekend**: $238 million (estimate)
Previous Record: $158 million (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
Biggest Weekend Overall (Top 12 Gross): $294.5 million
Previous Record: $266 million (June 12-14, 2015)
Biggest December Weekend (Top 12 Gross): $294.5 million
Previous Record: $259.9 million (Dec 25-27, 2009)
December Single Day: $120.5 million (estimated)
Previous Record: $37.13 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Widest December Opening: 4,134 theaters
Previous Record: 4,045 theaters (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
December Opening Weekend: $238 million (estimate)
Previous Record: $84.62 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Fastest to $100 Million: 1 Day
Previous Record: 2 Days (Jurassic World)
Global IMAX Opening Record: $48 million
Previous Record: $44.1 million (Jurassic World)
Domestic IMAX Opening Record: $30.1 million
Previous Record: $20.9 million (Jurassic World)

* The Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 record included midnight only screenings while Force Awakens screenings began at 7 PM on Thursday and included Star Wars marathon ticket sales, tickets that were sold for as much as $59.99 each.
** Holiday is defined as the first Friday in November through New Year's week or weekend.
Domestically, Force Awakens did fall short of a few records such as the largest Saturday and Sunday totals, both held by Jurassic World. Subsequent weekend records, however, are still up for grabs along with the fastest to $300 million and so on, not to mention the overall domestic record currently held by Avatar at $760.5 million.

Based on averages over the past couple of years, a 3-3.5 multiplier doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility, which would put the domestic run somewhere around $714-833 million. However, with Force Awakens playing somewhat similarly to how Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 played during its opening weekend, Potter's 2.5 multiplier can't be overlooked, which would give the film a $565 million domestic run. That said, Potter dipped a massive 72% in its second weekend. With Christmas around the corner, Star Wars definitely won't be dropping that much next weekend, but we're talking about uncharted territory here, which makes a future forecast just as difficult as it was predicting the film's opening weekend.

Internationally Force Awakens fell short of Jurassic World's international opening weekend record ($316.1 million) as well as its global opening record of $524.9 million. That global number, however, may still be in play as Disney is reporting an estimated $279 million international opening on approximately 30,000 screens, which leaves it just $7.9 million shy of that global record as the film currently sits at $517 million worldwide.

That international opening wasn't short on records either as it included the largest opening weekends of all-time in the UK (4-day), Australia, Russia, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Austria, Poland (3-day), Denmark (5-day), Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Croatia, Ukraine, Iceland, Serbia, New Zealand. Second biggest opening weekend in France, Belgium, Israel and Chile. The top grossing territories were the UK ($48.9M), Germany ($27.3M), France ($22.7M), Australia ($18.9M) and Japan ($13.5M).

Key among this opening is the fact it has not yet opened in China, which generated over $99 million for Jurassic World on its opening weekend. However, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out earlier this week, Star Wars isn't the known quantity in China it is elsewhere in the world. In fact, it wasn't until June of this year that the first three films in the franchise were first screened in China at the Shanghai international film festival and the Star Wars prequels only grossed a combined $18.7 million upon their 1999, 2002 and 2005 release. Disney has done a huge marketing push in China, but we'll have to wait until the weekend of January 9 to see if it pays off.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4134&p=.htm

 

[Horhey]

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

So are we about to see a slew of ressurected franchises? Or a slew of space movies?

 

[Greens]

So are we about to see a slew of ressurected franchises? Or a slew of space movies?

We're in for a slew of Star Wars movies, that's for sure.

And I love it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

We're in for a slew of Star Wars movies, that's for sure.

And I love it.

 

[The Caped Knight]

DAMN STAR WARS is taking no prisoners it just hacking away records with a single lightsaber strike!

 

[Tony Stark]

I figured the 267 prediction wasn't feasible, considering JW just barely broke the Avengers record, to think we could be that close to a 300M opening.

But that shouldn't diminish the incredible feat this film pulled this weekend in December of all times, which is not known for opening weekends.

I don't want to speak too quickly but I gotta think getting past Titanic is in the bag and this should beat Avatar. But we gotta see how front loaded this will be. Certainly it won't have the 2nd week hold that Avatar did, which was some ridiculous -1.8%, and with Christmas being on Friday the Friday number will be skewed. Still 2B WW is in the bag, only question is the Avatar record and/or possibly 3B WW

 

[Silver Surfer]

Thing is, if SW7 can't get to avatar then I doubt SW8 will get there. I expect a significant drop-off for SW8, but depending on what capacity Episode 10 is, SW9 could have a shot.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

I'm still holding out for 250. C'mon Han ol' buddy... don't let me down!

 

[spiderman2]

Thing is, if SW7 can't get to avatar then I doubt SW8 will get there. I expect a significant drop-off for SW8, but depending on what capacity Episode 10 is, SW9 could have a shot.

I do think that 8 will have a drop off because I think part of this doing what it is doing is because it has been 10 years sinces the last star wars movie and is consider the first great star wars movie in a long long time. I think that is part of why JW made has much has it did to. I think the gap with out a new star wars movie created more hype. How ever this is star wars the biggest movie franchise of all time so even if 8 makes less I am sure it will still do great. Now by say episode 10who knows. I mean I think the soonest we are going to see 10 is 2021. By then you are talking about another 5 years or so in inflation and maybe the internation market will be even bigger by then.

I figured the 267 prediction wasn't feasible, considering JW just barely broke the Avengers record, to think we could be that close to a 300M opening.

But that shouldn't diminish the incredible feat this film pulled this weekend in December of all times, which is not known for opening weekends.

I don't want to speak too quickly but I gotta think getting past Titanic is in the bag and this should beat Avatar. But we gotta see how front loaded this will be. Certainly it won't have the 2nd week hold that Avatar did, which was some ridiculous -1.8%, and with Christmas being on Friday the Friday number will be skewed. Still 2B WW is in the bag, only question is the Avatar record and/or possibly 3B WW

While before this movie came out I didn't think it would do has while has people said because of how bad the prequels where. I know that December is not know for big money but at the same time if the movie had come out in the summer it would have had more big movies to compete with. So I don't know if that chacles each other out or not. With being in December there is no other big movie to take away from this movie witch I would think should help its legs.

When it comes to if it can make 2 billion or even 3 billion I think we will now more come jan 16 because by then the movie will have been out for almost a month in the USA. So by then we should know how much this movie has left in the tank in the USA and the movie will have been out for a full week in china. So that then should give us a better idea how much this movie can bring in china. Its hard to really say how much this movie can make when we don't know how big of a drop the movie is going to have week from week and when we don't know if the movie is going to make 100, 200, 300 ect in china.

 

[Tilapia]

Episode 9 is due out in 2019 I believe. Or late 2018. Whatever it is, you need another 10-15 year break before you do another major trilogy. I don't think they should do Episode 10 until a good 20-30 years in real time passing. That's why Episode 7 is believable. You can actually believe it's a story 20-30 years after the events of Jedi... because, it's been that long.

My suggestion is to do an expanded universe trilogy. We are getting some of that with spinoffs, but those will be stand alone films. Base it on characters not related to any OT characters and stories, only to give the universe some texture. I don't think spinoffs hurt if they remain as stand alones. It's a money grab to be honest, but as long as they aren't envisioning Rogue One as a trilogy, or a Fett trilogy, it won't be as ridiculous or milkable, and we can avoid Star Wars saturation.

 

[Silver Surfer]

The Old Republic trilogy or GTFO!....














Please...

 

[InCali]

If you can make a compelling SW movie, just go ahead and do it. I don't care if it's 6 months down the road. Plus, I don't want to be dead by the time the next trilogy comes out.

Tilapia and I don't agree on anything. t:

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

They should do a new trilogy every fifteen years.

If you do them too often it loses some of the appeal and build up the franchise has.

That means ten years after SW9 they do another one.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

The Old Republic trilogy or gtfo

I see the Old Republic working as a netflix series

 

[spiderman2]

If you can make a compelling SW movie, just go ahead and do it. I don't care if it's 6 months down the road. Plus, I don't want to be dead by the time the next trilogy comes out.

Tilapia and I don't agree on anything. t:

lol yeah has long has you have good ideas for a movie there is no reason to want. Now if you need more time to come up with good idea then take more time. While if it where to be 10 years from episode 9 to 10 like it was from 3 to 7 I should still be alive.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I want a second trilogy featuring the same characters. So a few years off, continue the story with Rey, they were going to with Luke.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I want a Sith Protagonist dammit, enough with these Jedi's already.

 

[mclay18]

So are we about to see a slew of ressurected franchises? Or a slew of space movies?

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony does a remake of Krull, especially with former Fox CEO Tom Rothman running things. That became a cult classic partly because it was a SW knockoff. The story held promise, but it was incredibly cheesy and not well-plotted at all.

 

[Iceman]

I want a second trilogy featuring the same characters. So a few years off, continue the story with Rey, they were going to with Luke.

I'd like that. If they all live through the current trilogy I'd be cool with seeing them again in a 2nd trilogy new characters. And then we bring back the fossilised remains to cameo in a 3rd trilogy like the OT guys have here. Their presence has really raised this film for me.

 

[spiderman2]

They should do a new trilogy every fifteen years.

If you do them too often it loses some of the appeal and build up the franchise has.

That means ten years after SW9 they do another one.

While with episode 9 being in 2019 if they wanted to do 10 intill 2029 by then I would be 40. Then say the 10,11 and 12 end by 2033 and they then start up a 13 in 2043 I would be 54. Then by say the time 15 is done in 2047 I would be 58. Then by the time it is 2057 and 16 starts I would be 68. By the time 18 ends in 2061 I will be 72. Then by the time 19 starts in 2071 I will be 82. in 2075 when 21 ends I will be 86. Then by the time 22 starts in 2085 I would be 96 so most likely died. I guess I get to see 21 star wars movies then

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony does a remake of Krull, especially with former Fox CEO Tom Rothman running things. That became a cult classic partly because it was a SW knockoff. The story held promise, but it was incredibly cheesy and not well-plotted at all.

Wasn't a remake of the last starfighter in the works too?

 

[Tilapia]

While with episode 9 being in 2019 if they wanted to do 10 intill 2029 by then I would be 40. Then say the 10,11 and 12 end by 2033 and they then start up a 13 in 2043 I would be 54. Then by say the time 15 is done in 2047 I would be 58. Then by the time it is 2057 and 16 starts I would be 68. By the time 18 ends in 2061 I will be 72. Then by the time 19 starts in 2071 I will be 82. in 2075 when 21 ends I will be 86. Then by the time 22 starts in 2085 I would be 96 so most likely died. I guess I get to see 21 star wars movies then

10-12 is three decades away at least, or 2.5 decades at the very least. You can't have the type of financial return if you do another trilogy every 5-6 years.

Old Republic can be 2-3 trilogies itself. But get a trilogy out of that and start that next. It will sort of take the bad taste of the prequels completely away by going back to something similar in scope and visually.

The only spinoffs I feel are interesting are the one's currently rumored. Solo and Fett, although I think Fett works better for TV. Maybe he can go to TV after his movie. We will also be getting live action TV shows sooner than later.