The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tymminator]

Next week with no school will make another big week...might have to wait until the 3rd week to witness "normal" drop offs....

 

[LucDisfilm19]

$1B Domestically
$2B Overseas
______________
$3B Worldwide

 

[spiderman2]

I watched the Saturday morning IMAX at 1130. It was sold out. When I left the theater at 2pm, it was even more packed.

I saw some one I work with I guess took a photo of the line at the theater where I live and it looked like it still had a really long line.

Next week with no school will make another big week...might have to wait until the 3rd week to witness "normal" drop offs....

But next weekend is week 3 so you mean weekend 4 lol.

 

[spiderman2]

So what does ever one think the lowest and highest amounts that this movie could make in just the USA? Maybe the lowest would be 900M and the highest 1.2 billion?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So what does ever one think the lowest and highest amounts that this movie could make in just the USA? Maybe the lowest would be 900M and the highest 1.2 billion?

I'd say your range is accurate.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah I think that's the range.

 

[spiderman2]

Mine too. I expected Star Wars to be successful (although no way numbers like these), but Jurassic World I had no idea at all it would do so well.

I was very interested to see how while Jurassic world would do. I thought it would do while because from previews it looked good. It was hard to really say though because it was the first movie in the franchise in 14 years. So with it being that long the international market is way different then it was back then and the another movies didn't have 3d plus then you have inflation. I thought JW would make around 1 billion when it was all said and done but not 1.6 billion. Star wars I thought wouldn't make even close to has much has people though because of the prequles. I thought they would have to earn peoples trust back first and that if they did that then 8 could do crazy numbers. Instead 7 is doing more what I thought 8 would do if 7 was good.

At this point, it is tough to say what is or is not possible with this movie. A $150 weekend would mean a 40% drop for $90 million. A 40% drop would still be a massive success, given just how much business the movie already has done. $70-80 seems like a safe bet, though.

While it seemeds like the movie keeps doing even better then people think it will so I hope weekend 3 can do 100 million.

 

[spiderman2]

I'd say your range is accurate.

So it will finish in the middle 1.05 billion lol. Avatar made like 800 right?

 

[spiderman2]

55-58 million for Saturday according to sources.

It made about 50 yesterday right? So we could be looking at like 105-108+ what ever it does tomorrow?

 

[Leenie]

$500+ million in 9 days?

Insane. This may very well hit a billion domestic. Wow!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So it will finish in the middle 1.05 billion lol. Avatar made like 800 right?

Avatar made 760 m.

TFA should be close to passing it around January 4th.

Depending on drops after the holiday, TFA could get close to or passed 1 billion eventually.

 

[spiderman2]

Avatar made 760 m.

TFA should be close to passing it around January 4th.

Depending on drops after the holiday, TFA could get close to or passed 1 billion eventually.

Oh ok that is slightly lower then I thought for avatar. So after tomorrow we may be around 525-550 million in USA if I understand what I have heard the last few days? Could the movie be at 1 billion WW after today? I think it was around 900 coming into today.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Current tracking is at 59.5M-62.5M Sat

 

[JOE]

I'm thinking 1B domestic is actually in play... This is outstanding! Is Avatar's record actually in jeopardy?

 

[spiderman2]

I'm thinking 1B domestic is actually in play... This is outstanding! Is Avatar's record actually in jeopardy?

I think it is hard to say with out having china yet. I know it is doing great in USA and most likely going to get that record but I don't know if it is breaking records or not in the rest of the world and I don't know how much it has fallen off from its first few days to now in the rest of the world.

Current tracking is at 59.5M-62.5M Sat

Nice so it could maybe even be higher then 60M.

 

[DarthAlani]

It will crush Avatar in the US. WW is a lot harder.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm thinking 1B domestic is actually in play... This is outstanding! Is Avatar's record actually in jeopardy?

Assuming 1 billion really is in play domestically (still way too early to call) the film will have to do almost double what JW did OS to break Avatar's WW numbers, that is a huge feat. Right now TFW is playing ahead of JW but not by that much.

Realistically I can see the film topping out at 2 billlion give or take.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Assuming 1 billion really is in play domestically (still way too early to call) the film will have to do almost double what JW did OS to break Avatar's WW numbers, that is a huge feat. Right now TFW is playing ahead of JW but not by that much.

Realistically I can see the film topping out at 2 billlion give or take.

If China is big, it changes everything. It is outdoing JW without China already.

 

[InCali]

I'm thinking 1B domestic is actually in play... This is outstanding! Is Avatar's record actually in jeopardy?

1B DOM isn't in play. It's basically a done deal unless it falls off the map. 2.75B will be very difficult, but if it can come in around 1.2B DOM, it has a chance. We're just going to have to see how it plays outside US/Canada.

 

[spiderman2]

If China is big, it changes everything. It is outdoing JW without China already.

I think only by a little though. So say the movie makes around 1 billion USA compared to around the 600 million JW made in USA that would be a extra 400 and then with I think it doing only a little better out side the USA then Jurassic world it may only do like 200 more. So that would be 600 more then Jurassic world putting it at around 2.2 if china does around the same for star wars has it did for Jurassic world.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think only by a little though. So say the movie makes around 1 billion USA compared to around the 600 million JW made in USA that would be a extra 400 and then with I think it doing only a little better out side the USA then Jurassic world it may only do like 200 more. So that would be 600 more then Jurassic world putting it at around 2.2 if china does around the same for star wars has it did for Jurassic world.

You are discounting the film having real legs around the world. Longrt legs then JW.

 

[Bruce Malone]

China is as likely to go head over heels over SW as it did JW or freaking FF7, there is no nostalgia factor there to sell like in North America.

I just can't see the Chinese going that crazy for SW much more at least than those films.

 

[craigdbfan]

I had a full house today in my IMAX screening.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

China is as likely to go head over heels over SW as it did JW or freaking FF7, there is no nostalgia factor there to sell like in North America.

I just can't see the Chinese going that crazy for SW much more at least than those films.

Disney knows what they are doing. They have gone all out in China with the marketing. And they don't need to sell nostalgia they have a highly rated franchise flick, with the best visuals of the year.

 

[jokesonm3]

You know i've always wondered what kind of western films do big business in China, Critical acclaims or action packed etc.