The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[writer0327]

Seeing it again tonight. This will be the first movie I've seen twice since the first Avengers film.

 

[MurkeNyou]

What do you guys think the China final numbers will be like?

700m-1B

 

[Iceman]

Definitely. I still want to see it again in the theaters and I don't see movies twice in theaters.

This could be over 1.5 Billion even before it opens in China on the 9th.

Or they could convert it into a domestic poll to make it more relevant.

There should of been a 2-2.25, 2.25-2.5 and over 2.5 billion selections to really make this poll interesting.

I was always a multiple-time movie watcher for my favourite films until the last couple of years where I haven't got as much time. But still managed 2 viewings last weekend and have 1 other definite for the beginning of Jan.

 

[JOE]

700m-1B

For China alone?! Isn't the record 390M by F7?

 

[MurkeNyou]

For China alone?! Isn't the record 390M by F7?

Don't underestimate the power of the Force. It binds all.

 

[Iceman]

China doesn't have much experience of The Force yet but hopefully this changes in a big way in a few day's time.

 

[MurkeNyou]

China doesn't have much experience of The Force yet but hopefully this changes in a big way in a few day's time.

Agreed, but given how this franchise crosses cultures, I expect them to eat it up as much as everyone else.

 

[jokesonm3]

It's honestly fascinating how China is the one of the main reasons this year has 5 films crossing the billion dollar mark.

Give it a couple of years, studios will do anything the strike gold in China.

 

[Greens]

Give it a couple of years, studios will do anything the strike gold in China.

It's already happening. Transformers: Age of Extinction and Age of Ultron are some recent examples.

 

[Iceman]

It will overtake the US one day as the biggest box office location. Although it will be a long time before anywhere overtakes the US on Star Wars films.

 

[PacificBoy]

For China alone?! Isn't the record 390M by F7?

The current record-holder is a locally produced animation movie Monster Hunt I believe. By a whisker from F7.

It's really hard to say how TFA will do in China. As a Chinese I'd love for SW to be big here, but there's definitely a real indifference to it -- at the moment at least. My guess is SW fandom will only take off after this, and Rogue One with its two big Chinese stars will be the direct BO beneficiary.

A Reuters article I read had Chinese distributor bigwigs predicting $200m as a starting point. The local SW fan chapter was more cautious and went for $150m. Chinese social media is seemingly very hyped about it. A caveat is that the numbers could have been inflated in part by the online supporters of Lu Han, a pop celebrity and the face of the SW promotion in China, rather than interest in the movie itself.

I'd say in terms of promotion, the best thing that could have happened is the delay till 9 Jan as the records drop and the hype continues to build. Should make for a frontloaded opening weekend.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

There should of been a 2-2.25, 2.25-2.5 and over 2.5 billion selections to really make this poll interesting.

what? i'm saying if the poll is closed then the results should be showing. this has been a problem for years and it's annoying.

 

[Iceman]

Oh, I didn't know there were 2 Chinese stars in Rogue One.

 

[PacificBoy]

Didn't know myself too until I checked the wiki recently. Besides Donnie Yen, there's Jiang Wen, a mainstay in Chinese cinema. I think he's fairly well known internationally amongst people who follow film festivals. Burst onto the scene together with Gong Li in the 1990s (I think).

 

[doink]

It's already happening. Transformers: Age of Extinction and Age of Ultron are some recent examples.

For AoU, that wasn't China, it was South Korea and the Asian actress in it was Korean...though in that recent interview the Russos gave in China about Cap:CW, they said something about having 3 Chinese actors in small parts (probably UN officials or something).

Anyway, I contributed to that Christmas Day record t: I enjoyed TFA and I'd be really happy if it beat Avatar not just domestically but WW as well, it looks like it's on track to do that

 

[spiderman2]

If it holds, it just beat the OW of TDKR and Catching Fire. Been saying it since 2013, Titanic is going down, pun intended.

That is just crazy that the second week could make more then the first week of those movies. So is 100+ million 3erd weekend a lock?

 

[PacificBoy]

Agreed, but given how this franchise crosses cultures, I expect them to eat it up as much as everyone else.

I don't know about that personally. Especially in TFA's portrayal of the force and the absence of the jedi. It'll probably appeal on its spectacle and scifi-ness.

 

[jokesonm3]

That is just crazy that the second week could make more then the first week of those movies. So is 100+ million 3erd weekend a lock?

I'll eat my left shoe if it does.

 

[spiderman2]

For China alone?! Isn't the record 390M by F7?

I thought it was like 500m?

 

[spiderman2]

I'll eat my left shoe if it does.

lol so how much do you think its 3erd weekend will make?

 

[Iceman]

Didn't know myself too until I checked the wiki recently. Besides Donnie Yen, there's Jiang Wen, a mainstay in Chinese cinema. I think he's fairly well known internationally amongst people who follow film festivals. Burst onto the scene together with Gong Li in the 1990s (I think).

Getting more and more common to use this strategy. Invaluable to embed a franchise into the minds over there early while the culture for big Western film franshises develops.

 

[jokesonm3]

lol so how much do you think its 3erd weekend will make?

I'd say it's a 50/50 chance depending on how low the 2nd week drop off is.

 

[JOE]

The Dark Knight still holds the record for highest Domestic Percentage out of all 23 (soon to be 24) billion dollar movies. I don't think Star Wars will have a chance to beat that once the China numbers roll in... It's currently just a hair under 50%... Oh well, guess you can't win them all! Hahhhhahahahhha hahhhhh... (Heath laugh)

 

[Sithborg]

lol so how much do you think its 3erd weekend will make?

It is going to have to start dropping. That said, I think $90 isn't exactly out of the question.

 

[Iceman]

That is just crazy that the second week could make more then the first week of those movies. So is 100+ million 3erd weekend a lock?

I don't think it's a lock but it can easily happen (I expect something around that number) if this weekend comes in as expected as we'll still be in the holiday period, and all the holds to date have been great. Will be interesting to see how well it holds up after the holiday period but I suspect there is a lot of replay value left and it won't be up against the competition that big summer films face and could hold onto its screens for a long time.