The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[spiderman2]

TFA I think will have much more repeat viewing than Jurassic World (and I'm a huge dino-fan )

I loved Jurassic world I thought it was much better then 2 or 3 and close to the first one but with that said I love TFA even more.t:

 

[PacificBoy]

I thought it was like 500m?

Depending on which publication you read, F7 grossed between 382-390m, while Monster Hunt, the record-holder, 385-392m. Allegations have been made against China for fudging the numbers it seems.

 

[Iceman]

I loved Jurassic world I thought it was much better then 2 or 3 and close to the first one but with that said I love TFA even more.t:

The dinosaurs were awesome in JW. The characters were just ok though. Don't think I'll be remembering them in 20 years time (unlike the characters from the original JP). They certainly didn't have anyone who can live up to (even an ageing) Han Solo!

 

[PacificBoy]

Getting more and more common to use this strategy. Invaluable to embed a franchise into the minds over there early while the culture for big Western film franshises develops.

Yeah. But trust me when I say even the Chinese find it pandering. t:

 

[spiderman2]

The Dark Knight still holds the record for highest Domestic Percentage out of all 23 (soon to be 24) billion dollar movies. I don't think Star Wars will have a chance to beat that once the China numbers roll in... It's currently just a hair under 50%... Oh well, guess you can't win them all! Hahhhhahahahhha hahhhhh... (Heath laugh)

I didn't know that interesting

It is going to have to start dropping. That said, I think $90 isn't exactly out of the question.

How much did JW make its 3erd weekend?

 

[Sithborg]

$54 million.

 

[chamber-music]

Chinese audiences aren't fools. Unless Chinese actors have meaningful roles in Hollywood movies they aren't that interested. The Iron Man 3 fiasco didn't help Hollywood's grab for Chinese audiences with its weak attempt at manipulating Chinese people into thinking their domestic stars had a big role in the movie.

Andy Lau (House Of Flying Daggers, Infernal Affairs & upcoming Great Wall) is one of the big stars in Asia and speaks fluent English. He had an agent in the U.S but all he got offered was stereotypical Asian mystical kung fu guy roles said forget it and stayed in Asia. Even Jackie Chan has been less than enthusiastic about the roles Hollywood offered him. If Hollywood started treating these Chinese guys better and offered them better roles then they might get bigger audiences in China.

Didn't know myself too until I checked the wiki recently. Besides Donnie Yen, there's Jiang Wen, a mainstay in Chinese cinema. I think he's fairly well known internationally amongst people who follow film festivals. Burst onto the scene together with Gong Li in the 1990s (I think).

I know Donny Yen as Iceman from Blade 2. It is strange Donnie Yen hasn't done that much Western movies given that he grew up in the U.S

 

[spiderman2]

Depending on which publication you read, F7 grossed between 382-390m, while Monster Hunt, the record-holder, 385-392m. Allegations have been made against China for fudging the numbers it seems.

Oh I thought F7 was the record holder. While I am going to predict here right now that TFA makes 500 million in china.

 

[spiderman2]

$54 million.

Oh wow is that all? While TFA should have no trouble making more then that in its 3erd weekend.

 

[PacificBoy]

I know Donny Yen as Iceman from Blade 2.

He was in Shanghai Knights as well as the big bad, as far as big(ger) budget Hollywood/western movies are concerned. But I think he made his name internationally through his Chinese martial arts action movies, notably the Ip Man series.

Oh I thought F7 was the record holder. While I am going to predict here right now that TFA makes 500 million in china.

It's still being disputed apparently, so F7 may well retain its crown. I wouldn't predict 500m but I wouldn't bet against it at the same time! I see it being frontloaded but not having legs.

 

[spiderman2]

The dinosaurs were awesome in JW. The characters were just ok though. Don't think I'll be remembering them in 20 years time (unlike the characters from the original JP). They certainly didn't have anyone who can live up to (even an ageing) Han Solo!

While I love the twist with the raptors thought it was just brilliant and I liked chris prat a lot but yeah no Han solo. Jurassic park and star wars are 2 of my favorite franchise. So to get both of them in the same year and for both of them to be great was just great. The only thing that could have made this year really better for movies would be if there had been a great spider man movie this year to.

 

[InCali]

I'll eat my left shoe if it does.

Depending on shoe size, bring 3 quarts of water to a rapid boil. Add salt, pepper, oregano, onions, garlic, and 1 quart beef broth. Tenderize left shoe. Add shoe, bring to a boil, cover and lower heat. Slow boil for 45 minutes and pour over rice. Serve hot, small servings. For better results, remove sole prior to tenderizing shoe. Enjoy!!!


Nah. 100M isn't a lock, but it will be close. Most people won't be able to attend the January 1st showings because they'll hung over, slamming tylenol, laying on their couch, and drinking left over champagne with their coffee.

Maybe 90M+???

 

[jokesonm3]

Depending on shoe size, bring 3 quarts of water to a rapid boil. Add salt, pepper, oregano, onions, garlic, and 1 quart beef broth. Tenderize left shoe. Add shoe, bring to a boil, cover and lower heat. Slow boil for 45 minutes and pour over rice. Serve hot, small servings. For better results, remove sole prior to tenderizing shoe. Enjoy!!!

Wha......

 

[Iceman]

While I love the twist with the raptors thought it was just brilliant and I liked chris prat a lot but yeah no Han solo. Jurassic park and star wars are 2 of my favorite franchise. So to get both of them in the same year and for both of them to be great was just great. The only thing that could have made this year really better for movies would be if there had been a great spider man movie this year to.

Mine too. I expected Star Wars to be successful (although no way numbers like these), but Jurassic World I had no idea at all it would do so well.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think Star Wars could get to 300 million in China because it's just a flat out entertaining and simple film. Not simple in a bad way mind you but easy to translate overseas, universal.

 

[Sithborg]

Nah. 100M isn't a lock, but it will be close. Most people won't be able to attend the January 1st showings because they'll hung over, slamming tylenol, laying on their couch, and drinking left over champagne with their coffee.

Maybe 90M+???

At this point, it is tough to say what is or is not possible with this movie. A $150 weekend would mean a 40% drop for $90 million. A 40% drop would still be a massive success, given just how much business the movie already has done. $70-80 seems like a safe bet, though.

 

[InCali]

At this point, it is tough to say what is or is not possible with this movie. A $150 weekend would mean a 40% drop for $90 million. A 40% drop would still be a massive success, given just how much business the movie already has done. $70-80 seems like a safe bet, though.

Yeah.....there's no yardstick available to us. I'm just going on my gut reaction to how this has been performing and what I'll probably be doing on New Year's day (except I don't drink coffee). I've never looked at this before, but New Year's has got to be a down day US/Canada given that there are a lot of tired (to put it nicely) people and so many football games on.

How are NY days in general?

 

[Iceman]

Yeah. But trust me when I say even the Chinese find it pandering. t:

Haha. It really is. t:

 

[mclay18]

Yeah.....there's no yardstick available to us. I'm just going on my gut reaction to how this has been performing and what I'll probably be doing on New Year's day (except I don't drink coffee). I've never looked at this before, but New Year's has got to be a down day US/Canada given that there are a lot of tired (to put it nicely) people and so many football games on.

How are NY days in general?

Avatar inched up 9.4% on New Year's Day, compared to Christmas. Saturday, January 2 went down 8.6%, while Sunday saw a 32% decline. Overall Avatar's New Year weekend was down a mere 9.4%.

I don't think TFA will have a small 9-10% drop in its third weekend, probably 30-40% at minimum.

 

[spiderman2]

So no Saturday update yet?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's too early for a semi accurate Saturday number.

 

[Silver Surfer]

55-58 million for Saturday according to sources.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Eh I'd prefer to wait for something more concrete, that's just me though. I mean I could have roughly guessed those numbers, although my my range would end at 60 instead of 58mil.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Eh I'd prefer to wait for something more concrete, that's just me though. I mean I could have roughly guessed those numbers, although my my range would end at 60 instead of 58mil.

With matinees in on both coast, it actually can get fairly accurate.

 

[cheungcheung]

I watched the Saturday morning IMAX at 1130. It was sold out. When I left the theater at 2pm, it was even more packed.