The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

I'm really looking forward to today's daily figure. Wonder how much it will be down on last week's Monday.

 

[InCali]

I'm really looking forward to today's daily figure. Wonder how much it will be down on last week's Monday.

Just thinking exactly the same thing. I'm thinking maybe around last Thursday's number; probably a little bit lower??? We always say stuff like "after this weekend's number, we'll know more." Then when the weekend is over, we say stuff like "I wonder what Monday's number will be because then we can get an idea of what the rest of the week will look like." And then we start all over again. We're like Hamsters on those round running things....well, maybe I should just speak for myself. t:

 

[InCali]

I have a question. In BOM's dailies, they have everything from last Thursday through Sunday as an estimate. Surely they know receipts through Saturday. Did they stop counting because their on Xmas break or is that just because BOM has gone downhill and no one is minding the store the way they used to?

 

[Erzengel]

It's always been like that on the weekends/holidays. It's never official until Monday afternoon for them to tally the actual grosses. I think they are just able to get estimates and send them to the dailies.

 

[JOE]

I keep thinking this movie is going to do massive damage in China. I hope it breaks that record too. Does anyone know tracking numbers?

 

[Iceman]

I thought the Thursday figure would be updated. Weekend (Friday to Sunday) officials are always on Mondays but maybe this time the Thursday figure is still estimated because Friday was Xmas Day.

 

[Iceman]

Just thinking exactly the same thing. I'm thinking maybe around last Thursday's number; probably a little bit lower??? We always say stuff like "after this weekend's number, we'll know more." Then when the weekend is over, we say stuff like "I wonder what Monday's number will be because then we can get an idea of what the rest of the week will look like." And then we start all over again. We're like Hamsters on those round running things....well, maybe I should just speak for myself. t:

Ha, I am exactly the same. Once the weekend estimate is known with a degree of confidence there is no new material info till the Tuesday so it sets off the same old questions every time with every film. t:

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I have a question. In BOM's dailies, they have everything from last Thursday through Sunday as an estimate. Surely they know receipts through Saturday. Did they stop counting because their on Xmas break or is that just because BOM has gone downhill and no one is minding the store the way they used to?

I saw a note over at BOT to the effect that studio reporting typically slows down during the Xmas holidays due to lots of people taking time off. So I'd expect some delays in finalizing the numbers. I don't think they will change substantially, though.

ETA we do have some updated international actual numbers, tho:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wa...d-second-weekend-overseas-results-1201673404/

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'm really looking forward to today's daily figure. Wonder how much it will be down on last week's Monday.

I expect the holds to be solid this week. Kids are still off school and all the holiday craziness is done, so it should do good repeat business plus those who couldn't squeeze it in last week. I saw it again Sunday morning and the theater was 90%+ full, which was better than when I saw it Friday opening weekend.

 

[Iceman]

I expect the holds to be solid this week. Kids are still off school and all the holiday craziness is done, so it should do good repeat business plus those who couldn't squeeze it in last week. I saw it again Sunday morning and the theater was 90%+ full, which was better than when I saw it Friday opening weekend.

Last week we had M $40.1m T $37.3m W $38m T $27.5m. So can we get $20m+ on Monday and supporting dailies close to it the rest of the week? These would be great dailies for the first set of weekdays for a mega blockbuster of course, and even it were only high teens it'd still keep that overall total ticking over nicely. Will probably be a big old drop for the dailies the week after though.

 

[InCali]

I saw a note over at BOT to the effect that studio reporting typically slows down during the Xmas holidays due to lots of people taking time off. So I'd expect some delays in finalizing the numbers. I don't think they will change substantially, though.

ETA we do have some updated international actual numbers, tho:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wa...d-second-weekend-overseas-results-1201673404/

I don't know what the frell we'd do without you. Look it up ourselves I guess.....

Those are great numbers and great news out of China.

 

[InCali]

Last week we had M $40.1m T $37.3m W $38m T $27.5m. So can we get $20m+ on Monday and supporting dailies close to it the rest of the week? These would be great dailies for the first set of weekdays for a mega blockbuster of course, and even it were only high teens it'd still keep that overall total ticking over nicely. Will probably be a big old drop for the dailies the week after though.

I would expect most of the week to be solidly in the 20Ms. With another good hold next weekend (90M+), we'll be right on Avatar's heels after 17 days into the release. That is mind boggling.

I never in my wildest dreams expected this movie to hit those numbers so quickly. It's stunning and I think we're going to see some pretty mild drops during weeks 5-???. Those people who are expecting it to drop quickly are, IMO, in for a surprise.

With reasonable percentage drops after weekend #3, I can easily see a 3x multiplier from that weekend (which I expect to be in the 90M range).

 

[InCali]

BOM is running out of "FASTEST TO $XXXM" records. t:

 

[terry78]

Right now Bob Iger is sitting on his solid gold toilet saying, "nice."

 

[Iceman]

BOM is running out of "FASTEST TO $XXXM" records. t:

Thing is, once you get past the no.1 guy (in this case Avatar) the fastest to anything doesn't mean anything any more as you have no competition to compare against. That's what happened to Titanic when it beat out the previous guys and went past $500m and $600, was funny seeing it with the fastest to records when it took a life age of the earth to get to them.

 

[InCali]

Right now Bob Iger is sitting on his solid gold toilet saying, "nice."

Prolly $#!tt!ng gold too.

 

[spiderman2]

I saw a note over at BOT to the effect that studio reporting typically slows down during the Xmas holidays due to lots of people taking time off. So I'd expect some delays in finalizing the numbers. I don't think they will change substantially, though.

ETA we do have some updated international actual numbers, tho:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wa...d-second-weekend-overseas-results-1201673404/

Wow so if you take away china then Jurassic world had only made 420 compared to star wars 550 international at this same point in time. So star wars has like a 130 million lead just international. Do we know how much Jurassic world had made USA wise at this point in time compared to star wars?

 

[InCali]

Interesting tidbit....I expect TFA to play (and make money) into mid-March. At this point, it leads Avatar by a whopping $332M in box office receipts. By the time Avatar hit mid-March, it had collected about 98% of its total box office receipts.

Avatar's 3rd weekend gross was about 68M. I expect TFA to better than by at least 20M in it's 3rd weekend. Avatar's 4th weekend was about 50M and I expect TFA to better than that also. In other words, it's still pulling away in terms of total box office receipts. I think they can pull similar numbers after week 5 or 6 (with a slight edge to Avatar because we KNOW what it did and it was pretty much unprecedented although with SW mania, you never know).

Another reason I see TFA hitting 1B.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Wow so if you take away china then Jurassic world had only made 420 compared to star wars 550 international at this same point in time. So star wars has like a 130 million lead just international. Do we know how much Jurassic world had made USA wise at this point in time compared to star wars?

TFA is about $142 million ahead domestically as of Sunday.

 

[InCali]

Wow so if you take away china then Jurassic world had only made 420 compared to star wars 550 international at this same point in time. So star wars has like a 130 million lead just international. Do we know how much Jurassic world had made USA wise at this point in time compared to star wars?

About 403M. And (and this is a big AND), it had to deal with movies like Inside Out, Minions, and Ant-Man after its 2nd week.

 

[spiderman2]

About 403M. And (and this is a big AND), it had to deal with movies like Inside Out, Minions, and Ant-Man after its 2nd week.

Oh wow so that is like another 150 million or so right there. So really at this same point it time with that and internation star wars is ahead by like 280million or so and yeah that is a big and because ant man was solid even though it didn't do crazy numbers and minions is a billion movie and inside out was like around 900 million.

 

[InCali]

Oh wow so that is like another 150 million or so right there. So really at this same point it time with that and internation star wars is ahead by like 280million or so and yeah that is a big and because ant man was solid even though it didn't do crazy numbers and minions is a billion movie and inside out was like around 900 million.

Yeah. The advantage of releasing a movie in later December is that there usually isn't any competition. The disadvantage is that it doesn't normally do the crazy high numbers. TFA bucked that trend in a big way and will definitely be pulling away more and more from JW because it doesn't have the level of competition JW had and it's experiencing smaller drops. If that continues, it's hard to tell WHERE this will end up. We're pretty much in uncharted territory.

EDIT: JW did about 1.7B WW so, given how things are going, I don't see how TFA misses 2B. China could push it higher if TFA can beat JW in China.

And, by the way, I don't personally count re-release numbers. Titanic did 1.8B WW in its first run. The re-release pushed it higher into the +2B range. Ditto for Avatar's DOM total. It was just under 750M.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah. The advantage of releasing a movie in later December is that there usually isn't any competition. The disadvantage is that it doesn't normally do the crazy high numbers. TFA bucked that trend in a big way and will definitely be pulling away more and more from JW because it doesn't have the level of competition JW had AND it's experiencing smaller drops. If that continues, it's hard to tell WHERE this will end up. We're pretty much in uncharted territory.

That isn't true. There is usually plenty of competition. The thing is this year, they all ran away at the sight of Star Wars.

 

[Erzengel]

I know Mission Impossible moved up 4 months. What other movies?

 

[jokesonm3]

Prolly $#!tt!ng gold too.

If Lannisters don't sh** gold then he surely will.

The force is strong in his bowels.