The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[InCali]

Official Xmas eve number:

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS took in an estimated $27.59M on Thursday and has grossed $391.05M in 7 days domestically. #TheForceAwakens*

I was looking at the weeklies for Avatar and JW and here's what I'm thinking:

TFA WEEKENDS are likely to be in the same range as the top second and third WEEKLY takes of JW and then Avater (about 150M and 100M). When you add in the likely M-Th for TFA, I think you're looking at about 800M (probably a little bit more) by the end of week 3 (Jan 7). I went through adding those 3 times because I thought I might have made a mistake. Starting week 4, I don't think it's unreasonable to start thinking about Avatar like drops. IF that were to be the case, 1.25B is definitely in play. If that's in play, then 2.75B WW is too.

I know this sort of sounds nutty, but I can see scenario where this plays out.

1B DOM, IMO, is a done deal. It's happening unless this movie falls off a cliff and that ain't happening.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah Merry Xmas everyone!!

$1B predictions are out of date now lol. This is gonna be registering on the all time inflation adjusted chart.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Avatar dropped 1.8% in it's second weekend and 9.4% the weekend after that. TFA will not be having Avatar style drops. There is always a certain amount of front loading when a film opens above 150 million dollars. It's probably going to have good legs but let's not go crazy.

 

[JC00]

So $1B WW by Monday is a lock.

 

[Jonwo]

Avatar dropped 1.8% in it's second weekend and 9.4% the weekend after that. TFA will not be having Avatar style drops. There is always a certain amount of front loading when a film opens above 150 million dollars. It's probably going to have good legs but let's not go crazy.

TFA opened bigger so the drops naturally will be bigger. Avatar's second weekend drop was amazing and its competition in January was pretty much nonexistant whereas January 2016 has plenty of competition, not enough to cause huge drops but perform like an average blockbuster.

It'll be interesting what will be the film that dethrones TFA from the top spot, I'm thinking either 13 Hours or Kung Fu Panda 3.

 

[InCali]

Avatar dropped 1.8% in it's second weekend and 9.4% the weekend after that. TFA will not be having Avatar style drops. There is always a certain amount of front loading when a film opens above 150 million dollars. It's probably going to have good legs but let's not go crazy.

Right, but I'm not talking about the first 3 weeks. Starting the 4TH week, we "could" be seeing something close to what Avatar was doing in terms of weekly drops percentage wise. The rationale behind this is that the frontloading has had 3 weeks to work its way out and the scheduling is very similar. In addition, the mania around TFA is, IMO, at least as off the charts as the Pandora craze.

With good holds over the next month or 2, we could see something in the range of 1.2B DOM. I'm not saying that WILL happen, but a path is there to do it.
1B is a lock.

 

[InCali]

TFA opened bigger so the drops naturally will be bigger. Avatar's second weekend drop was amazing and its competition in January was pretty much nonexistant whereas January 2016 has plenty of competition, not enough to cause huge drops but perform like an average blockbuster.

It'll be interesting what will be the film that dethrones TFA from the top spot, I'm thinking either 13 Hours or Kung Fu Panda 3.

Kung Fu Panda doesn't open until the end of January. That's 5 weeks of releases. 13 hours??? Not a concern IMO. Deadpool? Middle of Feb. Remember in terms of competition Avatar had Sherlock Holmes, a popular Chipmunks movie (that did way better business than this one), and The Book of Eli (which I think would have done much better if it didn't have to go up against Avatar). Panda will do very well in 5 weeks, but it appeals to a different demographic.

I see TFA's path at least as clear as Avatar's and in a week or two, the drops could look very similar (IMO).

 

[InCali]

Yeah Merry Xmas everyone!!

$1B predictions are out of date now lol. This is gonna be registering on the all time inflation adjusted chart.

NO DOUBT. Maybe as high as #3. I don't like the adjusted for inflation numbers because there is a built in bias for older movies. Movie releases weren't the puppy mills we see today, there was less competition for the entertainment dollar, a great deal of them were re-releases, ticket price inflation has outstripped inflation overall, and so on.

Only 3 movies in the top 30 of all time (inflation adjusted) were made after 2000. That in and of itself shows that this is not a reliable indicator of a movie's popularity unless someone is going to look at me with a straight face and tell me that The Graduate (a fine movie by the way) was more popular than The Dark Knight and The Avengers.

Movies from different eras can't be reliably compared from a pure numbers perspective. There are too many variables involved that can't be accurately gauged.

 

[Tymminator]

Did C3PO have to take a bathroom break? Oil change? Battery recharge?

He took the picture.

 

[Iceman]

Even after all the frontloading has been beaten out of this film, it is still going to be in a much better position than the majority of big summer films as you would have the likes of a Star Trek and a Mission Impossible, an X-Men and a Bad Boys biting away at your heels at the same time. The repeat business (which to me seems like it will be much higher than on blockbusters like Jurassic World and Avengers) and the lack of summer-level competition means it can have far better legs than those films. I don't think anyone expects it to have Avatar legs (a x10 multiplier) but even a x5 is well clear of summer fare while being a mile away from Avatar, and that sees it to a good way past a billion.

 

[InCali]

Even after all the frontloading has been beaten out of this film, it is still going to be in a much better position than the majority of big summer films as you would have the likes of a Star Trek and a Mission Impossible, an X-Men and a Bad Boys biting away at your heels at the same time. The repeat business (which to me seems like it will be much higher than on blockbusters like Jurassic World and Avengers) and the lack of summer-level competition means it can have far better legs than those films. I don't think anyone expects it to have Avatar legs (a x10 multiplier) but even a x5 is well clear of summer fare while being a mile away from Avatar, and that sees it to a good way past a billion.

Exactly the point I was making when I said that the scheduling was similar to Avatar's. Usually holiday releases have lower OW and better legs because of less competition. TFA had a mindblowing opening and winter type competition.

 

[Iceman]

NO DOUBT. Maybe as high as #3. I don't like the adjusted for inflation numbers because there is a built in bias for older movies. Movie releases weren't the puppy mills we see today, there was less competition for the entertainment dollar, a great deal of them were re-releases, ticket price inflation has outstripped inflation overall, and so on.

Only 3 movies in the top 30 of all time (inflation adjusted) were made after 2000. That in and of itself shows that this is not a reliable indicator of a movie's popularity unless someone is going to look at me with a straight face and tell me that The Graduate (a fine movie by the way) was more popular than The Dark Knight and The Avengers.

Movies from different eras can't be reliably compared from a pure numbers perspective. There are too many variables involved that can't be accurately gauged.

I agree with all that and have said so myself many times. It's just another set of rankings for it to do well in for me lol. It just adjusts for one (major, and possibly the single most important) variable while many more exist. I don't see it as completely useless but I don't think a numbers comparison between far apart eras is that useful outside of a bit of fun.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

NO DOUBT. Maybe as high as #3. I don't like the adjusted for inflation numbers because there is a built in bias for older movies. Movie releases weren't the puppy mills we see today, there was less competition for the entertainment dollar, a great deal of them were re-releases, ticket price inflation has outstripped inflation overall, and so on.

Only 3 movies in the top 30 of all time (inflation adjusted) were made after 2000. That in and of itself shows that this is not a reliable indicator of a movie's popularity unless someone is going to look at me with a straight face and tell me that The Graduate (a fine movie by the way) was more popular than The Dark Knight and The Avengers.

Movies from different eras can't be reliably compared from a pure numbers perspective. There are too many variables involved that can't be accurately gauged.

I love the adjusted numbers, because they are honest. There are no two movies that have had an effect on the world the way Gone with the Wind and Star Wars have, and adjusted, they are far and away the two big ones. While there is more to do today, there are also far more people to get to go to the theater thanks to the expanded international market plus the premium formats. The only problem is, it is hard to do WW because of the value of money in different parts of the world.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

WW update from deadline:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wa...-box-office-international-results-1201672147/

+$20 million offshore Thursday so it was at $813.5 million WW headed into today.

 

[InCali]

I love the adjusted numbers, because they are honest. There are no two movies that have had an effect on the world the way Gone with the Wind and Star Wars have, and adjusted, they are far and away the two big ones. While there is more to do today, there are also far more people to get to go to the theater thanks to the expanded international market plus the premium formats. The only problem is, it is hard to do WW because of the value of money in different parts of the world.

I was talking about DOM numbers only. WW is a whole different situation. GwtW didn't really have an international market. Anyway, I tend to agree with Ice.

There's just too many differences to honestly compare movies numerically by adjusting for inflation. That's really arbitrary without taking a whole lot of other factors into account (which probably can't be done). I don't personally consider throwing inflation into the equation and calling it a day gets you much. If it did, you would expect more than 3 movies in the last 15 years to be in the top 30.

It's clearly skewed towards older movies and the changes I laid out partially explain why.

The Graduate, for example, was a really good movie, but I don't think it would be accurate to say it was on the same plane as TDK and TA yet it's higher up on the adjusted chart. I don't personally buy it and I was around when The Graduate was released. It was big, but in terms of impact, it didn't have the same clout. I know that's subjective, but adjusted gives a big, systematic skew towards older movies. There was less competition and tickets were relatively cheaper back then even when you count economic inflation (not talking about ticket inflation....they aren't the same).

Edit; It's fun to compare them though.....

 

[InCali]

I agree with all that and have said so myself many times. It's just another set of rankings for it to do well in for me lol. It just adjusts for one (major, and possibly the single most important) variable while many more exist. I don't see it as completely useless but I don't think a numbers comparison between far apart eras is that useful outside of a bit of fun.

I won't go on ad nauseam about this, but this type of analysis is precisely what I used to do. I believe ticket prices have risen faster than the cost of living in general so tickets are relatively more expensive now than they were. That and the fact that there are so many more forms of entertainment available now are the main reasons (IMO) that the adjusted totals skew towards older movies.

I would like the "adjusted" list better if they just called it "number of tickets sold" and try to figure that out. That would make it easier to explain why older movies sold more tickets. Using "adjusted" box office $$$ obfuscates what is really being discussed.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Wait, did someone claim that 1B DOMESTIC is a lock? Probably read it wrong...

 

[InCali]

Wait, did someone claim that 1B DOMESTIC is a lock? Probably read it wrong...

It's a lock......crunch the numbers.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'd say 900 m DOM is a lock.

TFA could collapse after this weekend and still hit 900 m.

If it continues the current momentum then 1 billion DOM is happening.

 

[InCali]

I'd say 900 m DOM is a lock.

TFA could collapse after this weekend and still hit 900 m.

If it continues the current momentum then 1 billion DOM is happening.

Hypothetically possible, but not happening IMO. I figure in the neighborhood of 800M after 3 weeks. Even with 50% drops week after week, it'll still hit 1B by around the end of Jan. I think the drops down the road will be less than that. If people think this movie is going to be pulled after 6 weeks, I think they've got a little too much Xmas cheer in their coffee cups, but feel free to send me some. t:

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

People love them some Star Wars that's for sure. 900mil, 1.2billion, either way it shows that Star Wars is in a class of it's own.

 

[InCali]

People love them some Star Wars that's for sure. 900mil, 1.2billion, either way it shows that Star Wars is in a class of it's own.

Tru dat. It's not my favorite franchise (awfully close though), but overall, nothing is touching it these days from a fandom perspective. Especially after the long drought (including the prequels or not.... ).

 

[Iceman]

Can't wait to see what it did today. Seems like a great post-Xmas dinner thing to do for families. Kids aren't gonna complain!

 

[Tymminator]

I first saw Star Wars back in 1977 when I was 10...it made a huge impact on me.

 

[writer0327]

Can't wait to see what it did today. Seems like a great post-Xmas dinner thing to do for families. Kids aren't gonna complain!

Deadline thinks it could be a $100M day at the box office today. That would be insane for Christmas...