The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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writer0327 said:
Deadline thinks it could be a $100M day at the box office today. That would be insane for Christmas...
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People are saying that is probably for all of Friday's movies combined.

60 m alone would be huge for TFA on Friday.
 
170-180 million weekend according to Deadline. Wow, that's more than TDKR OW ffs.
 
Haha. If Star Wars was opening this weekend and we were talking these kinds of numbers in Winter we'd be saying wow, looks like it's gonna do very well. And now it's doing it with $400m already in the bank!
 
Box Office: Stay calm, stay calm.

Star Wars: I am calm.

Box Office: I was talking to myself!
 
MessiahDecoy123 said:
People are saying that is probably for all of Friday's movies combined.

60 m alone would be huge for TFA on Friday.
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Yeah, that's what I mean, total combined.

But think about it....there are only THREE $100M days at the box office in movie history.

Twilight New Moon headlined the first in 2009 ($104M)
Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows pt 2 headlined the second in 2011 ($115M)
Star Wars: The Force Awakes headlined the third last weekend ($135M)

Star Wars: The Force Awakens can not only headline one....but TWO $100M days????:cwink:

That's simply insane....
 
Iceman said:
Haha. If Star Wars was opening this weekend and we were talking these kinds of numbers in Winter we'd be saying wow, looks like it's gonna do very well. And now it's doing it with $400m already in the bank!
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We are going to know a lot more after this weekend and even more after next weekend. After that, I think things will start to be more predictable. I see next weekend being around 100M (I'm having a hard time believing I just wrote that). If that holds, I think we're in for a long run that could intersect the release of Batman v Superman.

Let the doubters weigh in.......
 
InCali said:
I was talking about DOM numbers only. WW is a whole different situation. GwtW didn't really have an international market. Anyway, I tend to agree with Ice.

There's just too many differences to honestly compare movies numerically by adjusting for inflation. That's really arbitrary without taking a whole lot of other factors into account (which probably can't be done). I don't personally consider throwing inflation into the equation and calling it a day gets you much. If it did, you would expect more than 3 movies in the last 15 years to be in the top 30.

It's clearly skewed towards older movies and the changes I laid out partially explain why.

The Graduate, for example, was a really good movie, but I don't think it would be accurate to say it was on the same plane as TDK and TA yet it's higher up on the adjusted chart. I don't personally buy it and I was around when The Graduate was released. It was big, but in terms of impact, it didn't have the same clout. I know that's subjective, but adjusted gives a big, systematic skew towards older movies. There was less competition and tickets were relatively cheaper back then even when you count economic inflation (not talking about ticket inflation....they aren't the same).

Edit; It's fun to compare them though.....
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This isn't a game of inflation, it is a game of ticket sales. A ticket for a ticket, 1 for 1.

Gone with the Wind made more money overseas then it did domestically. Adjusted it is around $1.7 billion domestically, and some where between $1.7 billion and $2 billion overseas. That it is why its worldwide total adjusted between $3.4 billion and $3.7 billion.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=gonewiththewind.htm

I wasn't alive in the 60s, but The Graduate was beloved and had a rather large impact on culture.

The Force Awakens is showing exactly what a film with real impact can do domestically. It is going to do OT money adjusted, and might only be behind Star Wars when it is all said and done. So we can't say it is impossible to do that kind of money now, as TFA is showing that you most certainly can. Avatar, while I may dislike it, also showed this. Same with that movie about a boat.
 
DarthSkywalker said:
This isn't a game of inflation, it is a game of ticket sales. A ticket for a ticket, 1 for 1.

Gone with the Wind made more money overseas then it did domestically. Adjusted it is around $1.7 billion domestically, and some where between $1.7 billion and $2 billion overseas. That it is why its worldwide total adjusted between $3.4 billion and $3.7 billion.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=gonewiththewind.htm

I wasn't alive in the 60s, but The Graduate was beloved and had a rather large impact on culture.

The Force Awakens is showing exactly what a film with real impact can do domestically. It is going to do OT money adjusted, and might only be behind Star Wars when it is all said and done. So we can't say it is impossible to do that kind of money now, as TFA is showing that you most certainly can. Avatar, while I may dislike it, also showed this. Same with that movie about a boat.
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I'm cool with that. Let's just call it tickets sold and do away with the "adjusted" nonsense. It just adds a layer that doesn't need to be there and doesn't really give us any real information. At that point, we can have the discussion of the differences between cinema at different times.

I WAS alive in the 60s and The Graduate was a fine movie and had some very, very fine actors. It also came out in a time where movie tickets were relatively inexpensive and there wasn't a lot else going on (Think about the rise of video games, home movie theater, etc.). It also didn't generate the excitement that TA and TDK did. Of course that's just my subjective opinion.

All I'm really saying is that if the adjusted $$$ were something of a fair comparison, we'd have more than 3 movies in the top 30 since the year 2000.

Grease>Avengers and TDK??? OK. Whatever floats the boat......

Total tickets seems like a much better way of looking at this as that's what most people are talking about anyway.
 
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This isn't going to crack $100. Those three $100 million days? Include Thur night previews. That would make this the first true $100 million day. I just don't think that is happening.
 
This film's a juggernaut at the Box Office, will we see these records beat by another film any time soon?

Tune in next time on Dragonball Z to find out. :oldrazz:
 
jokesonm3 said:
This film's a juggernaut at the Box Office, will we see these records beat by another film any time soon?

Tune in next time on Dragonball Z to find out. :oldrazz:
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Zoolander 2.

If Zoolander can't do it, it's going to take a nutzoid confluence of events to even approach it. I think TFA is going to go over 1.1B DOM and maybe even 1.2B. To put that in perspective. That's about 50% more than Avatar.
 
InCali said:
Zoolander 2.

If Zoolander can't do it, it's going to take a nutzoid confluence of events to even approach it. I think TFA is going to go over 1.1B DOM and maybe even 1.2B. To put that in perspective. That's about 50% more than Avatar.
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Did you just say:

c3305497a908aed0e1792f5d6be8bb85b8878081952e9874ad45fe22692451d0.jpg


:awesome:
 
Went to a 4:30 show with the family, and the theater was pretty full. But, when I got out, the theater was insane with business. It's going to be a good day.
 
Sithborg said:
This isn't going to crack $100. Those three $100 million days? Include Thur night previews. That would make this the first true $100 million day. I just don't think that is happening.
Click to expand...

The $100m Friday talk is for the total box office, not just Star Wars. Like you say, TFA couldn't have done it on its first Friday without previews, nevermind after almost $400m of demand has been burnt off!
 
Drum roll please...

@ERCboxoffice THE FORCE AWAKENS delivered the goods on Christmas Day, lighting up theaters with a record-breaking $49M. Best. Xmas. Day. Ever.
 
Yeah, the film is going to be number one for a while. So it's going to past Age of Ultron today and next up will be Jurassic World.

Everything went perfectly for Star Wars. The marketing, the reviews, word of mouth and the box office. Disney was the perfect company to continue Star Wars.
 
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