The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Erzengel]

(You'd probably have a difficult time arguing that interest in SW has waned substantially....)

I do wonder if Disney has held off with their improvements to the Parks seeing how TFA did. Construction has been said to begin this month.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That's a good point. I've always felt if there should be an "adjusted" box office number, it should be for corrections between international markets and within a reasonable time frame and not GwtW v Titanic v SW adjusted comparisons. It doesn't get you everything, but as long as you don't go too far out in time, it gets you some info on how the movies did.

Yeah, there was a piece on deadline.com earlier today that mentioned the issue of exchange rates.

There’s also a simple math issue to remember here. Offshore currencies have been seriously devalued in the intervening years, and even rival distribs have pointed that out. TFA‘s current $21.7M in Brazil would have been closer to $50M a year-and-a-half ago.

Another adds, “I think the strong dollar makes $2B a lot harder.” Avatar had 5%-10% better foreign exchange rates, confirms a number-cruncher.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...national-box-office-record-avatar-1201676082/

 

[InCali]

Yeah, there was a piece on deadline.com earlier today that mentioned the issue of exchange rates.

There’s also a simple math issue to remember here. Offshore currencies have been seriously devalued in the intervening years, and even rival distribs have pointed that out. TFA‘s current $21.7M in Brazil would have been closer to $50M a year-and-a-half ago.

Another adds, “I think the strong dollar makes $2B a lot harder.” Avatar had 5%-10% better foreign exchange rates, confirms a number-cruncher.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...national-box-office-record-avatar-1201676082/

Interesting. I have a saying that's always correct "Every time I have a good idea, somebody else has already thought of it".

My father also had a saying....How come there's so many more horses asses than there are horses?

 

[PacificBoy]

That's a good point. I've always felt if there should be an "adjusted" box office number, it should be for corrections between international markets and within a reasonable time frame and not GwtW v Titanic v SW adjusted comparisons. It doesn't get you everything, but as long as you don't go too far out in time, it gets you some info on how the movies did.

Box office watching is meant to be an anorak pursuit. Since the two movies are essentially from the same movie-making era, a close comparison can still be made between TFA and Avatar once the necessary adjustments are accounted for, I feel.

Something like GwtW v Titanic v SW is a "who's the greatest hall of famer" kind of talk.

 

[InCali]

Box office watching is meant to be an anorak pursuit. Since the two movies are essentially from the same movie-making era, a close comparison can still be made between TFA and Avatar once the necessary adjustments are accounted for, I feel.

Something like GwtW v Titanic v SW is a "who's the greatest hall of famer" kind of talk.

No argument from this corner. The closer in time, the easier to adjust unless there has been some sort of dramatic change. You might be able to do something between Avatar and TFA, but the OS box office has changed pretty dramatically in terms of # od theaters (or so I imagine). If you have double the market (that's an exaggeration meant to make a point), it makes it tough to compare.

 

[PacificBoy]

No argument from this corner. The closer in time, the easier to adjust unless there has been some sort of dramatic change. You might be able to do something between Avatar and TFA, but the OS box office has changed pretty dramatically in terms of # od theaters (or so I imagine). If you have double the market (that's an exaggeration meant to make a point), it makes it tough to compare.

Yeah. Basically you've to go in market by market to do some serious statto work. That's taking an interest to an obsession.

 

[InCali]

Box Office Theory is calling 6.2M on Wednesday. Maybe an 8-10% for today??

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Sounds reasonable.

 

[rashad]

And just to get things kinda back on track, SW7 is opening in China in two days, expect a major increase in its total box office, i expect it to do at least half a billion in China.

I wouldn't bet on that.

 

[DChero]

I think, if handled right, that JL can put up very big numbers. Maybe not 2B numbers, but certainly Avengers/JW numbers. I also think you're right when you say that BvS is a key movie for DC. I hope the upcoming stand alones are good too. We don't need another Green Lantern like the last one (although I kind of liked it even though I recognized it wasn't what I would call a GOOD movie).

I think IW, if good, could "maybe" put up 2B, but that's a LOT of tickets. The only reason I think Avengers will probably do a little better than JL is that it's probably a little better known than JL (EDIT: I'm talking general public). It's had a chance to develop its brand. If JL is really, really good, all bets are off. Sky's the limit.

Neither is really in the SW stratosphere. I think it'll come back to earth a little bit in Ep 8 and 9. TFA went crazy because we were all dying for a good SW movie (and, IMO, we got one).

I definitely agree with you, but I hope that isn't the case and XIII and IX continue to push the limits. ;-)

By adjusting for inflation in four years, $2b for IX may still be a realistic number.

 

[Filmfan93]

Has anyone seen the Chinese music video released for the movie? While I don't like it, I think it will give a slight boost at the BO in China.

 

[PacificBoy]

Has anyone seen the Chinese music video released for the movie? While I don't like it, I think it will give a slight boost at the BO in China.

Do you mean this song by Lu Han?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK1V14s66a0

 

[Filmfan93]

Yes, it's this one.

 

[PacificBoy]

Just watched the vid. It does give last-minute exposure to the movie, because Lu Han is hot commodity at the moment, but I'm unsure about the general effectiveness of it on the moviegoing public. It's the equivalent of having a member of One Direction play a power ranger in a music video for a power ranger movie for a UK audience. Check out the fangirly YouTube comments.

I think him as the Star Wars ambassador distorted somewhat the perception of the social media interest in the movie. The chatter is centered more on him. It seems he holds the guinness world record for the most comments on a weibo (Chinese twitter) post. 87 million comments for a post about Manchester United!

 

[InCali]

I definitely agree with you, but I hope that isn't the case and XIII and IX continue to push the limits. ;-)

By adjusting for inflation in four years, $2b for IX may still be a realistic number.

Possibly.

Hey, if you need a job, maybe move to Hell's Kitchen and open a PI agency???

 

[jokesonm3]

The chinese film market is honestly unique and interesting, i mean what sells there? What convinces folks in China to go out and see this film?

Is it the Acclaim? Is it the Brand? is it the Genre? Is it the Star power?

What sells in China?

 

[DChero]

Possibly.

Hey, if you need a job, maybe move to Hell's Kitchen and open a PI agency???

I don't get along with the lawyers in that area.

 

[DKDetective]

Just watched the vid. It does give last-minute exposure to the movie, because Lu Han is hot commodity at the moment, but I'm unsure about the general effectiveness of it on the moviegoing public. It's the equivalent of having a member of One Direction play a power ranger in a music video for a power ranger movie for a UK audience. Check out the fangirly YouTube comments.

I think him as the Star Wars ambassador distorted somewhat the perception of the social media interest in the movie. The chatter is centered more on him. It seems he holds the guinness world record for the most comments on a weibo (Chinese twitter) post. 87 million comments for a post about Manchester United!

Yeah, it doesn't seem that smart as a marketing move, but to be fair to Disney, neither does the Chinese audience's choice of Hollywood blockbusters given that movies like Furious 7 and Transformers sequels top the charts. If you gobble up movies that appeal to the lowest common denominator, it makes sense that they think marketing the film that way will work. Look at how they changed the TFA poster for China - they added more guns, explosions and spaceships.

 

[InCali]

Yeah, it doesn't seem that smart as a marketing move, but to be fair to Disney, neither does the Chinese audience's choice of Hollywood blockbusters given that movies like Furious 7 and Transformers sequels top the charts. If you gobble up movies that appeal to the lowest common denominator, it makes sense that they think marketing the film that way will work. Look at how they changed the TFA poster for China - they added more guns, explosions and spaceships.

Oh god.....crapformers.

I liked the first one fine. If hell exists, people have to watch Age of SuckStinktion in an endless loop forever.

 

[InCali]

Sounds reasonable.

That would put it at just under 28 for the week. About 1.5M behind Avatar's comparable week. I think it'll do about the same weekend numbers that Avatar did. Now I think we'll start seeing how it holds. The front loading is, I think, not much of a factor anymore or won't be after this weekend.

 

[Drizzle]

Do you mean this song by Lu Han?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK1V14s66a0

Holy hell, that might be even worse than the Star Wars Holiday Special.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That would put it at just under 28 for the week. About 1.5M behind Avatar's comparable week. I think it'll do about the same weekend numbers that Avatar did. Now I think we'll start seeing how it holds. The front loading is, I think, not much of a factor anymore or won't be after this weekend.

Yah, boxoffice.com is predicting a $50 million weekend, so right in line with Avatar. Should be around $815-820 million after Sunday. I don't care if it's slowing down those are still crazy numbers.

 

[InCali]

Do you mean this song by Lu Han?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK1V14s66a0

Oh Lord. I couldn't finish it. My daughter listens to music that sounds like that. She almost always has her earpods on so I'm generally spared.

 

[InCali]

Yah, boxoffice.com is predicting a $50 million weekend, so right in line with Avatar. Should be around $815-820 million after Sunday. I don't care if it's slowing down those are still crazy numbers.

For week 4, it's nuts. That's a good opening weekend for the vast majority of releases.

The DOM/OS split looks to be staying right in the 40/60 range. That will dramatically change after this weekend and until it ends its run in China. Does anyone know how long it'll probably play? Is there a set time or does it depend on how popular it is?

 

[metaphysician]

That hardly matters. The Batstans have spoken. They have issued their challenge.

Spoiler

They are deluded if they think that for a nanosecond.