The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Smurphftw]

Looks like it's coming in a skosh higher, maybe around $7.4 million, which would put it around $858.5 million domestic through yesterday, including another $20 from my daughter and I; sprang for the 3D this time, don't bother, doesn't add anything. (Show was reasonably well-attended, I'd say at least 30 people FWIW.)

Disagree strongly about the 3D. There are some scenes that benefit greatly from it imo. The depth of the hallowed out Star Destroyer, and the Falcon chase are 2 things that immediately come to mind.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Disagree strongly about the 3D. There are some scenes that benefit greatly from it imo. The depth of the hallowed out Star Destroyer, and the Falcon chase are 2 things that immediately come to mind.

Oh, 3D had its moments, no doubt. I remember the Star Destroyer shot you're talking about and it was clearly framed with 3D in mind. But I found myself really missing the visual richness of a lot of the non-action sequences, like the "cantina" scene at Maz's. And there was one shot that, at least for me, was absolutely ruined by 3D:

Spoiler

during the final lightsaber fight, when Ren has Rey pinned back and is trying to talk her over to the dark side, there's an over-the-shoulder (Ren's shoulder) shot in which said shoulder basically blots out about a third of the screen. I was moving my head trying to see around the person I initially thought had stood up in front of me before I realized, oh, wait, that's a big black 3D blob.

As always, just my opinion. YMMV.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So will it reach 1 billion domestic?

Nah it won't.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Actuals are in: TFA did $33.02 million for the four-day weekend, putting it at $858.95 million.

 

[Erzengel]

Thinking it'll take 2 weeks to reach $900.

 

[Vincanws]

Not sure if anyone mentioned, but Avatar now well and truely beaten domestically (adjusted as well as unadjusted for inflation). For people that look at that.

 

[Wildcard]

Thinking it'll take 2 weeks to reach $900.

Same thing I was thinking. Should be somewhere in the mid to high 20's for this weekend & close to the same next week, probably 15-20% lower.

 

[DKDetective]

Same thing I was thinking. Should be somewhere in the mid to high 20's for this weekend & close to the same next week, probably 15-20% lower.

I highly doubt that. Those are Avatar/Titanic-style drops and they have not been happening previously. I am guessing a 35-45% drop is much more likely. Since the holidays ended, the weekend drops for TFA have been pretty similar to Jurassic World.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think it's dropping 50-60% next weekend. It's not dropping 15-20% coming off of a holiday weekend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

"Industry forecasts" put it at $12-13 million this coming weekend, which seems a little low to me. I was thinking more like $14-15 but we will see.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/box-off...y-the-5th-wave-chloe-grace-moretz-1201686420/

Tuesday estimate is $2.37 million which would be a decent hold versus last Tuesday ($3.8).

 

[InCali]

"Industry forecasts" put it at $12-13 million this coming weekend, which seems a little low to me. I was thinking more like $14-15 but we will see.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/box-off...y-the-5th-wave-chloe-grace-moretz-1201686420/

Tuesday estimate is $2.37 million which would be a decent hold versus last Tuesday ($3.8).

60+%. At some point in time, it seems like the drops have a tendency to go down somewhat. I don't think you can expect a 60% hold from last weekend because it was a holiday weekend, but anything approaching 15M would be very, very good.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

60+%. At some point in time, it seems like the drops have a tendency to go down somewhat. I don't think you can expect a 60% hold from last weekend because it was a holiday weekend, but anything approaching 15M would be very, very good.

Yah, 60% would be fantastic and probably isn't happening, but $12-13 would be a 50-53% drop (again the proviso: my math skilz suck) from the three-day total which seems a tad pessimistic. All the Hobbit films fell 40-some percent in the same frame. And there's nothing particularly big opening next weekend.

OTOH this monster storm is supposed to drop half of Hoth on the East Cost starting Friday so that could put a damper on things...

 

[spiderman2]

So what are we looking at USA worst and best causes to finish at? What about WW?

 

[spiderman2]

I just saw a articly about how the movie will most likely not get to 1 billion USA and will most likely finish at 925-950m.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, $1 billion has been dead for a while. Low 900s domestic seems likely to me.

WW is hard to say. There's probably not much more than $15-20 million left in China. Rest of the planet...I dunno, $60 million? So a smidge over $2 billion when all is said and done?

 

[Wildcard]

I still believe it'll end up passing Titanic by a little bit. If it continues to perform as it has, it'll probably hit $950-$960 million at most in the U.S. but it won't make $1 billion domestically due to the new movies set to be released in the coming weeks. But I certainly think it has enough steam to take the #2 spot, even if only by a few million.

 

[writer0327]

Will we see a re-release eventually? Maybe on an anniversary year after some new visual technology comes out? That would push it over Titanic for sure, and perhaps Avatar.

 

[spiderman2]

I still believe it'll end up passing Titanic by a little bit. If it continues to perform as it has, it'll probably hit $950-$960 million at most in the U.S. but it won't make $1 billion domestically due to the new movies set to be released in the coming weeks. But I certainly think it has enough steam to take the #2 spot, even if only by a few million.

I hope it does but I am not sure I think it is going to be close. I think it needs about 300m more to pass it. Sounds like it has between 65-90 left USA in the tank and around 20m more china and then what ever else it does OS and sounds like OS is doing better. Ok so best I think it does 90 USA and 180 OS +20 china. That would be 290m then maybe they let it stay in theaters longer because it is so close. Worst it does 65 USA and like 97 OS considering it is doing better OS and then say 15m china. That would be 177m more and I think about 123 short of titanic.

 

[spiderman2]

posted twice

 

[SomeOldGuy]

60+%. At some point in time, it seems like the drops have a tendency to go down somewhat. I don't think you can expect a 60% hold from last weekend because it was a holiday weekend, but anything approaching 15M would be very, very good.

FWIW boxoffice.com is projecting a $16 million weekend for TFA, which strikes me as wildly optimistic but this film has surprised me before.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...e-revenant-the-boy-dirty-grandpa-the-5th-wave

 

[JOE]

I still believe it'll end up passing Titanic by a little bit. If it continues to perform as it has, it'll probably hit $950-$960 million at most in the U.S. but it won't make $1 billion domestically due to the new movies set to be released in the coming weeks. But I certainly think it has enough steam to take the #2 spot, even if only by a few million.

Really? Looking at the current numbers I do think it'll cross 2B but I don't think it has a chance of beating Titanic? It needs to make another 300M WW... I don't think it stands a chance of making that much more.

 

[InCali]

FWIW boxoffice.com is projecting a $16 million weekend for TFA, which strikes me as wildly optimistic but this film has surprised me before.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...e-revenant-the-boy-dirty-grandpa-the-5th-wave

That really puts the "W" in Wow. That would be better than a 60% hold from the HOLIDAY weekend before that has inflated Sunday numbers. If you took out the Sunday number and put the Monday number in it's place, it works out to a 2/3 hold (or about 67%).

I guess it helps that there are no really compelling new releases?? (Though I think I might go see 5th wave even though it seems to be getting panned.)

 

[InCali]

Really? Looking at the current numbers I do think it'll cross 2B but I don't think it has a chance of beating Titanic? It needs to make another 300M WW... I don't think it stands a chance of making that much more.

It's already passed Titanic's first go round. The second release in 3D garnered over 300M years later. If TFA gets a re-release (maybe added footage or some other kind of makeover) down the road in 5-10 years, I could easily see it passing Titanic's totals with its second run included.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Nah it won't.

I really thought it would. I guess I was wrong.

 

[InCali]

I really thought it would. I guess I was wrong.

The drop over January 8-10 and less than expected (at least by me) numbers from China were what really hampered the box office totals; IF you can call a movie that will do over 900M DOM and 2B WW "hampered". Just saying it could have been more if those two pieces had fallen into place.

I think The Revenant pulled in more than expected (by me anyway) and clearly hurt TFA's totals over Jan 8-10. That weekend made it look more like a summer blockbuster than a late December release. Other than that, TFA has held up really, really well. To beat Avatar's DOM numbers by anywhere from 20 to 25+% is, to put it mildly, staggering.