The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Vincanws]

I'm seeing the movie one final time as it's the 3D Imax version I've been looking forward to. It'll be the last go around, but that's my contribution to TFA hitting that $2 billon milestone. I doubt Titanic will be beaten at this point, but I think it'll be a tight race.

 

[InCali]

I'm seeing the movie one final time as it's the 3D Imax version I've been looking forward to. It'll be the last go around, but that's my contribution to TFA hitting that $2 billon milestone. I doubt Titanic will be beaten at this point, but I think it'll be a tight race.

Titanic got 1.8B in its first run.

 

[Bruce Malone]

They are still counting the 3D re-release as part of its grand total.

Many of the highest grossing movies historically including the SW original trilogy counted multiple re-releases into their totals.

 

[Wildcard]

^ Exactly. TDK is another one whose re-release totals were counted into the previous income. It's only fair to do, imo.

 

[spiderman2]

^ Exactly. TDK is another one whose re-release totals were counted into the previous income. It's only fair to do, imo.

I don't remember TDK getting a release in less you are just talking about first night marathron thing where they showed batman begins, dark knight and dark knight rises.

 

[JaD]

I don't remember TDK getting a release in less you are just talking about first night marathron thing where they showed batman begins, dark knight and dark knight rises.

I remember the re-release, 'cause I went to it ha. I checked my tickets and I saw it again in IMAX in Feb '09 so I think it was a special IMAX re-release thing.

 

[Wildcard]

I don't remember TDK getting a release in less you are just talking about first night marathron thing where they showed batman begins, dark knight and dark knight rises.

JaD is correct, haha. It was essentially the same thing they did with Jurassic World last year where they did a limited special re-release. Well, of course the difference was that TDK had already been completely out of theaters by the time they did it & JW was still playing on regular screens.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The TDK re-release was either to help as an Oscar push I believe or to get it over the 1 billion mark? maybe it was both actually.

 

[InCali]

^ Exactly. TDK is another one whose re-release totals were counted into the previous income. It's only fair to do, imo.

Yeah. They are generally all counted in as totals because, well, they are totals. Comparing totals for re-releases against first runs, isn't, IMO, comparing apples to apples. Of course comparing a movie released in 1977 to one in 2015 isn't apples to apples either so there you go.

When I rank BO movies, I keep a separate first run total. Titanic is 5th.

1. TFA
2. Avatar
3. JW
4. The Avengers
5. Titanic

 

[InCali]

The TDK re-release was either to help as an Oscar push I believe or to get it over the 1 billion mark? maybe it was both actually.

Generally speaking, re-releases don't bring in a ton of money. I think Avatar got an extra 10M and I don't think TDK did that well either. Titanic was an exception because they waited a long time and added 3D. It got 300M+ WW.

 

[rashad]

The TDK re-release was either to help as an Oscar push I believe or to get it over the 1 billion mark? maybe it was both actually.

TDK wasn't re-released. It re-expanded into more theaters. That billion it grossed was still in a single run.

 

[InCali]

TDK wasn't re-released. It re-expanded into more theaters. That billion it grossed was still in a single run.

I think that "technically" it was considered a re-release. I don't remember the exact details, but, then, I don't remember what I had for breakfast.

BOM, for what it's worth, says it was re-released.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I remember it as a re-release. Technically if you count those dollar theaters some films stay in theaters for like a year.

I actually remember advertising specifically hyping TDK being back in theaters.

Either way un-adjusted comparisons of movies across different decade are inherently un-fair, so it makes no sense to not include re-releases if we're just comparing un-adjusted totals.

Because frankly 1.8 billion made in the 1997-1998 period is truly a different level of success and popularity than 1.9 billion made in 2015-2016.

 

[writer0327]

Any re-release for TFA would include some enhanced technology I would think. And the numbers would be completely accurate. Back in the day, before home video, movies were released multiple times. I think GWTW was re-released over 9 times.

 

[Solidus]

Nah, it won't have any "advanced tech" at all. Film looks fine. They may just do a simple re-release. Or try to emulate Avatar and what it did by re-releasing a "extended cut".

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I won't be surprised at all if there's a re-release a weekend or two ahead of ep 8.

 

[InCali]

I remember it as a re-release. Technically if you count those dollar theaters some films stay in theaters for like a year.

I actually remember advertising specifically hyping TDK being back in theaters.

Either way un-adjusted comparisons of movies across different decade are inherently un-fair, so it makes no sense to not include re-releases if we're just comparing un-adjusted totals.

Because frankly 1.8 billion made in the 1997-1998 period is truly a different level of success and popularity than 1.9 billion made in 2015-2016.

A good argument can be made that movies today are at a competitive disadvantage when it comes to selling tickets. Technology, the array of entertainment options, pirating, etc. actually keep people out of theaters.

The bottom line is that we'll never be able to ferret out enough variables to compare them so comparing first run numbers is no better or worse than trying to compare movies released in different spaces in time. My son loves movies, but he just spent about 18 hours playing Halo 5 in 1080p while sitting in front of a 120" screen (and he loved Titanic). We didn't have that and many other options WAY back when t: in the good ole days.

 

[InCali]

I won't be surprised at all if there's a re-release a weekend or two ahead of ep 8.

Me neither, but I wouldn't expect it to bring in Titanic numbers which was re-released as the 3D craze was happening and years after its initial release. Just another reason that numbers are just that......numbers. Trying to compare this, that, and the other thing is a fool's pursuit....but we all still do it and seem to enjoy it. We'll compare what we want, think what we want, and, hopefully, get a good night sleep surrounded by people we care for.

Cheers.

 

[spiderman2]

So when should we be at 2 billion WW? Maybe next Monday? So the movie is at about 1.94 billion and sounds like it has around 60m left USA. So I am going to say at worst it does about the same OS so with OS and USA 120 m to added to the 1.94 billion. That would get it up to about 2.06 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

I won't be surprised at all if there's a re-release a weekend or two ahead of ep 8.

I said before I think it would be cool if they did a marathon of 7,8,9 first night 9 comes out like they did with the dark knight trilogy where they showed batman begins, dark knight and dark knight rises.

A good argument can be made that movies today are at a competitive disadvantage when it comes to selling tickets. Technology, the array of entertainment options, pirating, etc. actually keep people out of theaters.

The bottom line is that we'll never be able to ferret out enough variables to compare them so comparing first run numbers is no better or worse than trying to compare movies released in different spaces in time. My son loves movies, but he just spent about 18 hours playing Halo 5 in 1080p while sitting in front of a 120" screen (and he loved Titanic). We didn't have that and many other options WAY back when t: in the good ole days.

Yeah films have a big disadvantage when it comes to selling tickets today. Netflix, movies don't stay out in theaters has long has they used to, things like video games, I think there are more movies coming out each year to then there where in say the 70's so more options of movies to go and see. Also tickets cost way more then they used to compared to inflation and with a bad inconimey doesn't help either. Man a 120 screen that would be amazing to have a screen that big. My tv is 37 inch hoping to upgrade to like a 50-60 inch 4k tv in a few years.

 

[InCali]

I said before I think it would be cool if they did a marathon of 7,8,9 first night 9 comes out like they did with the dark knight trilogy where they showed batman begins, dark knight and dark knight rises.



Yeah films have a big disadvantage when it comes to selling tickets today. Netflix, movies don't stay out in theaters has long has they used to, things like video games, I think there are more movies coming out each year to then there where in say the 70's so more options of movies to go and see. Also tickets cost way more then they used to compared to inflation and with a bad inconimey doesn't help either. Man a 120 screen that would be amazing to have a screen that big. My tv is 37 inch hoping to upgrade to like a 50-60 inch 4k tv in a few years.

I LOVE my home theater. I did a bunch of remodeling/additions on my house several years back. When I was done, I didn't have room for all the scaffolding, cement mixer, etc. so I had a yard sale and sold everything. I made a ton of money (but not as much as I spent ) and when everything was said and done, I played the man cave card, but with a twist....

"Wouldn't it be nice for the kids to have someplace to hang out with their friends? Maybe we should put the old sofabed couch out in the garage and get a new one for the house. They have very reasonably priced HD projectors and I could put a nice setup together with the money we made from the yard sale."

God, I'm such a considerate person......

EDIT: I also have some pics of my home theater as well as a primer if anyone is interested in setting one up. I've had people come up to me for advice off and on and I decided to formalize it and put it on my website. Check it out if you like at

http://www.cloudvistas.com/the-world-of-home-theater-and-its-evolution/

In it, I delve into the details of projectors, screens, 3D, source material/resolution, and sound. If you want to get a better look at the room, you can just click on the pictures.

EDIT: I'm not going to get a 4K anything until we start seeing a lot of 4K source material......and price drops.

The point is that this is an example of a technology that hurts theater ticket sales. The studios make a lot of money streaming, BluRay sales, etc. They don't care where the money comes from. It's all green to them. I wonder what Disney will make from TFA (not toys....just movie revenue) after its run is over? Does anyone have any educated guesses???

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looks like just a tad under $1.3 million for Monday. Not bad. If last Monday hadn't been a holiday it probably would have been around $1.5-2 million then.

Now at $880.4 million total domestic.

 

[DeGenerate10]

Anyone think it'll hit a billion domestically?

 

[DKDetective]

Anyone think it'll hit a billion domestically?

No.

 

[InCali]

Anyone think it'll hit a billion domestically?

Me neider....Jan 8 weekend killed those possibilities and I, being the genius that I am, called 1B a lock....but was conscious of being the eternal optimist that I am.