The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[SomeOldGuy]

TFA was the most profitable movie of 2015 with an estimated profit of $923 million.

http://deadline.com/2016/03/star-wa...ovie-profit-2015-lucasfilm-disney-1201726142/

Ho. Lee. ****. $923 million. Heck, BvS might not gross that much! All hail The House of Mouse.

 

[Mysteryman]

I don't think that there have been any estimates suggesting that BVS would make 900 million or more.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

900 m profit, lmao.

Usually, the biggest movies are lucky to make 200 m profit.

 

[Erzengel]

It is insane that TFA made over $2 billion but Disney only saw $900 million profit.

I remember the story from December that it would need to make $1.5 billion to make a profit which would be $400 million profit?

Or is it exponential? Does it take into account merchandising and promotional licensing?

Does that also mean if it only made a little over $1B would it have just broke even?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

If you look at the numbers, deadline's estimating that of the $2 billion+ WW BO, Disney's cut is about $830 million. My bet is that's a little low. Subtracting out the costs they are estimating for the theatrical run gets you a profit of around $380 million from theaters.

Then they estimate $700 million in revenues from DVDs, rentals, VOD, and TV against about $140 million in costs for those. That's where the big bucks come from.

It doesn't look like merchandising and licensing are included.

 

[spiderman2]

They don't literally charge a dollar. They used to but not anymore. The term "dollar theater" simply stuck despite increase in ticket prices. Now dollar theater refers to second run theaters that aren't part of a chain or corporations. They are usually independent or part of a small franchise. They also charge less for tickets than chain theaters. My local dollar theater charges $2.99 for a ticket.

Oh and yeah I know that theaters get most there money from food and soda but still 2.99 a ticket compared to the average of like 8 or what ever it is for regular theaters is still a big difference.

 

[spiderman2]

TFA was the most profitable movie of 2015 with an estimated profit of $923 million.

http://deadline.com/2016/03/star-wa...ovie-profit-2015-lucasfilm-disney-1201726142/

Ho. Lee. ****. $923 million. Heck, BvS might not gross that much! All hail The House of Mouse.

I am not sure how you can really know how much money a movie makes. I have heard some many different things. I have heard normally it takes a movie to make around 2.5 times its budget to break even. For this movie that would be like 500 million. I had heard for the longest time that theaters only get 15-20% of the money from a ticket and that is why food cost so much. I have also heard just in the last few years. That the 15-20% is not true and that it is more like 50% or something and that the studio gets less money in china then the do in USA from a ticket. So with there being so many different reports and how it really works I belive we don't really know how it works and I had heard the 15-20% thing for like 20 years in till a few years ago lol. But star wars made around 10 times its budget and around 400 million more in box office than the second highest movie of 2015 that was Jurassic world.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I am not sure how you can really know how much money a movie makes. I have heard some many different things. I have heard normally it takes a movie to make around 2.5 times its budget to break even. For this movie that would be like 500 million. I had heard for the longest time that theaters only get 15-20% of the money from a ticket and that is why food cost so much. I have also heard just in the last few years. That the 15-20% is not true and that it is more like 50% or something and that the studio gets less money in china then the do in USA from a ticket. So with there being so many different reports and how it really works I belive we don't really know how it works and I had heard the 15-20% thing for like 20 years in till a few years ago lol. But star wars made around 10 times its budget and around 400 million more in box office than the second highest movie of 2015 that was Jurassic world.

The theater chains get about 48% of the ticket money, though it varies do to studio deals.

By the way, this is just the money it make off tickets. have sold billions in merch since September. Billions.

 

[spiderman2]

The theater chains get about 48% of the ticket money, though it varies do to studio deals.

By the way, this is just the money it make off tickets. have sold billions in merch since September. Billions.

While i have a hard time beliving that we really no becuase there is a big difference between this suposive 48%-50ish and the 15-20% i had heard for the longest time so i dont think we really know like i said. If you look at a movie like amazing spider man 2 as an example that dosnt really make sinces becuase it was said the movie had a 250 budget and 150 in marketing that would mean it took 400 million to make. The movie only made like 716 million. Now if they only got half that would mean they only got 358 million from tickets when the movie cost 400 to make. That would mean that the movie would have lost 42 million yet it was said the movie made a profit of like 16 million. Yeah when it comes to merch the movie made back that like amount the Disney paid to get star wars on its own lol.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

While i have a hard time beliving that we really no becuase there is a big difference between this suposive 48%-50ish and the 15-20% i had heard for the longest time so i dont think we really know like i said. If you look at a movie like amazing spider man 2 as an example that dosnt really make sinces becuase it was said the movie had a 250 budget and 150 in marketing that would mean it took 400 million to make. The movie only made like 716 million. Now if they only got half that would mean they only got 358 million from tickets when the movie cost 400 to make. That would mean that the movie would have lost 42 million yet it was said the movie made a profit of like 16 million. Yeah when it comes to merch the movie made back that like amount the Disney paid to get star wars on its own lol.

We do know. Because right before the release of Iron Man 3, there was a big dispute where Disney wanted something like 60%, and the theater chain simply said they wouldn't show there movies anymore.

http://deadline.com/2013/04/iron-ma...theater-chains-in-dispute-with-disney-475572/

Higher numbers come from early weekends, where the studios do get more. This is all domestic of course. Overseas is another story. In China, you are looking at a return to the studios of around 30-40%.

As to TASM2. Sony had no merch rights for it. They had already sold those back to Disney to extend their deal on the character. As to how they made any profit, corporate deals covered at least some of the cost of the marketing. Considering it is Spider-Man, it was probably the vast majority.

You seem to get your info from the oddest places. Most of it sounds made up. You should stop listening to those people. They are lying to you.

 

[spiderman2]

We do know. Because right before the release of Iron Man 3, there was a big dispute where Disney wanted something like 60%, and the theater chain simply said they wouldn't show there movies anymore.

http://deadline.com/2013/04/iron-ma...theater-chains-in-dispute-with-disney-475572/

Higher numbers come from early weekends, where the studios do get more. This is all domestic of course. Overseas is another story. In China, you are looking at a return to the studios of around 30-40%.

As to TASM2. Sony had no merch rights for it. They had already sold those back to Disney to extend their deal on the character. As to how they made any profit, corporate deals covered at least some of the cost of the marketing. Considering it is Spider-Man, it was probably the vast majority.

You seem to get your info from the oddest places. Most of it sounds made up. You should stop listening to those people. They are lying to you.

lol i dont know a theater only getting 15-20% sure makes sinces to me becuase it would really explain why food and soda cost so darn much. I know that Sony didnt have merch rights for spider man but if you take what spiderman's budget and marking where and they only got half like i said that would be a lost of 42m instead of a profit of 16 million. That is a 58m difference and i have heard that corporate deals cover some of the marketing but at least 58m? And considering amazing spider man 2 did even worse USA wise it would seemed like they would have gotten even less then half over all if that really is true that a movie gets less from other countrys then USA as the movie made about 2.5 times as much outside USA as it did USA. So that would mean that 58m would be even bigger and i had never heard about this suposive movies get more of USA thing in till a few years ago on hear from people.

When you look at star wars to the movie had a budget of 200m and marketing around 150 for 350. Now the movie made about 2.1 billion. If they only got half that would mean they got around 1.05 billion. Now if you take that away from what it cost to make that is about 800 million yet deadline is saying the movie made more then that in a profit. Also if movies really only got around 50 over all or even sometimes less then half it would semmed like there would be more movies that floop. I dont really see how 15-20% really sounds more made up then saying the amount of money a studio gets each week changes % wise and that USA gets more of the moeny. That just sounds overly compilacated to me and looks like it dosnt added up. Heck even batman vs superman had different reports on what it needs to make to break even. I have heard numbers like 750 million all the way up to like 1 billion.

 

[Sithborg]

The only people that know are the accountants. How much a movie costs can be spread out.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

lol i dont know a theater only getting 15-20% sure makes sinces to me becuase it would really explain why food and soda cost so darn much.

It used to be the case that theaters made very little money on films early in their release. Under the old model of distribution, studios kept virtually all the box office receipts for the first week or so, then their percentage would decline over time. So for example a theater might get just 10% of week 1 revenues, then 20% of week 2, 30% of week 3, etc. The exact terms were negotiated between the theater and the studio.

But as films became more front-loaded this model broke down and now a flat split is the norm (or at least so I have read). It's generally assumed to be 50/50 on the domestic side but sometimes studios can get better terms for big films. On TFA for instance Disney was said to have gotten closer to 60% of domestic.

As for how the film can make so much profit, again, deadline is NOT saying the theatrical run made $900 million profit. They are including future sales and rentals of DVDs, VOD and TV revenues in their calculation.

 

[JOE]

900m profit only? That doesn't seem right... Especially grossing just over 2B.

 

[spiderman2]

So a few things that are kind of interesting. 1st the theater closet to me is playing this movie again even though they stopped playing it like 3 weeks ago. Maybe it is to get people pump up for the DVD or something. I don't know how long it is going to be playing there but looks like threw at least Thursday. I know last year Jurassic world had a rerelease by the closet IMAX to me for just the weekend. So I guess this is kind of like that but who is going to really go see the movie when counting today there is only 3 days in till the movie will be out on DVD.

Second I just saw this http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ight-outgross-the-force-awakens/#79f7f3cee25c
I thought this was interesting. I know a lot of people are thinking that the 8 will drop off in America by like 200 million but I don't see that in less the movie ends up not being that good. I know that empire strikes back even though it is consider better than New hope dropped off a lot but that is because New hope was the first star wars and was something new and different and ahead of its time. So with empire you didn't have it being something new never seen before kind of thing. With star wars 7 going to 8 while star wars 7 was great it was not a first time ever type of thing and not a movie ahead of its time, and I think there were a lot of people turned off from star wars because of the prequels. I think because of how 7 turned out those people that were so turned off because of the prequels are now going to end up coming back to 8 and that people are going to once again be excited for star wars again. So while I do see 8 dropping off some in America because of how crazy 7's numbers were I don't see a 200m drop in less the movie is not that good. Other wise I see a like 100m drop and maybe even no drop if the movie ends up being as good as I think it will be.

 

[JOE]

934M DOM, what a monster.