The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iceman]

The rewatch rate for this is going to be crazy too. I think it's going to be in cinemas a very long time. I can see it being much higher than Jurassic World or Furious and Ultron. So after that first weekend drop it may well hold very well on a relative basis for a mega-blockbuster (and with the assistance of the Winter release), not to the extent of Titanic and Avatar which opened low, but maybe something a way towards that. It should only need about a x3 multiplier to beat Avatar now and any more than that is a huge bonus. A x4 would be very nice though.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My predictions were terrible, especially my older ones. I couldn't have been more hilariously wrong if I tried.

 

[Iceman]

BB8 being the new Jar-Jar?

What the hell were people thinking?

What I'm struggling to remember is whether fans had no idea what Jar Jar would be like from the trailers? I watched TPM trailer 100s of times but I can't remember how much Jar Jar was in it and if he spoke or not.

 

[danoyse]

What I'm struggling to remember is whether fans had no idea what Jar Jar would be like from the trailers? I watched TPM trailer 100s of times but I can't remember how much Jar Jar was in it and if he spoke or not.

There was some worry about Jar Jar in the first teaser, if I remember right. It didn’t get really bad until the movie got closer and word started getting out about him. People didn’t like the clips that got released at all.

 

[flickchick85]

My predictions were terrible, especially my older ones. I couldn't have been more hilariously wrong if I tried.

Pretty sure most of us are in that boat, ISS.

 

[Silver Surfer]

My prediction back in 2013, gotta say I called it!:

SW7 will obliterate the boxoffice records of Avengers. The original cast + Disney's marketing machine + the SW brand + JJ = Move over Titanic.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=25799575&highlight=titanic#post25799575

 

[Iceman]

There was some worry about Jar Jar in the first teaser, if I remember right. It didn’t get really bad until the movie got closer and word started getting out about him. People didn’t like the clips that got released at all.

I don't think I actually used to use the internet that much (for leisure) back then so I was unaware of all this. But I do remember very clearly seeing him on screen at the premiere and hearing him talk for the first time. I thought I'd misheard or that it was some background noise, and the 2nd time I thought it was some kind of prank like someone in the cinema doing it. After that it was like 'what's happening?!'

If he was in the trailer I guess I didn't realise that he was a main character and thought that it wouldn't really matter. And BB8 seems more R2D2 than Jar Jar I would have thought.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Pretty sure most of us are in that boat, ISS.

Yeah, forsure. lol

 

[Sithborg]

I thought it had a chance at the opening week record. But smashing it like this...

No one truly believed this could happen.

 

[Marvolo]

While this is apples-to-oranges, you have a film like American Sniper that expanded nationwide in mid-January. That film opened to summer-like numbers ($89M 3-day/$107M 4-day) and was able to sustain its momentum for several weekends. It made studios rethink their stance on January releases.

And let's not forget that March and April were originally dead months until Disney, WB, Universal and Lionsgate began experimenting by placing different movies and big sequels in those slots. It took several years and several big movies, but now they're seen as valid blockbuster months now.

People are going to see movies any time of the year now. I guarantee you Disney could open TFA in mid-January or February 2016 to gigantic numbers. I would wager they could nab a $150M+ opening weekend... that's how popular the SW brand is.

American Sniper was catnip for a lot of americans. Especially for the "patriots" and the " 'Murica **** yeah!" crowd. It was one of those films that was not going to fail no matter the month.

March and April became part of blockbuster season because so many blockbusters are coming out now. I suppose if more and more blockbusters start coming out then January and February could be used, but those months are never going to be as big as other months because of the reasons I stated earlier. Too many parts of America and Europe deal with horrid weather during those months and too many people's budgets are over extended due to christmas.

Maybe global warming could end up helping theaters tho.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

I thought it had a chance at the opening week record. But smashing it like this...

No one truly believed this could happen.

Plenty of people did, the hype for this has been unreal

 

[Snow Queen]

BB8 being the new Jar-Jar?

What the hell were people thinking?

If you thought that was bad, someone was complaining that the planets weren't CG green screen creations.

 

[Iceman]

I wonder what Lucas will think when he sees this film and the universal appreciation and reception from critics/fans and box office numbers etc. I imagine he is totally resistant to all the fan complaints by now and is quite happy with his billions but surely he might get the inkling that TPM could have had all of this and more in the right hands (and with him in the roles which he excels at rather than also taking control over the ones which he is terrible at). I think he totally mucked up on the prequels of course but I'm not a hater of the guy. He had a lot of talent in certain areas and is the guy who created this whole thing. I'll always have more positive than negative feelings on him.

 

[Mysteryman]

My prediction back in 2013, gotta say I called it!:



http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=25799575&highlight=titanic#post25799575

I remember reading that.
Good Job!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

My predictions were terrible, especially my older ones. I couldn't have been more hilariously wrong if I tried.

I told you you were underestimating the power of the Force.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'd say 240 m OW is the floor with a 125 m OD.

With legs as good as The Hobbit it should make 860 m DOM.

Even if it falls somewhat short of The Hobbit's legs it should still beat Avatar DOM.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I thought Darth just got on the Hype train today! Although he is now the driver so that counts for something. t:

I refused to predict on this one. I have been talking about it being easily capable of getting to $2 billion, siting articles, preaching patience and have been defending Star Wars status as the biggest movie franchise around, but I don't think I predicted anything. I didn't want to jinx it.

Also, SPIDEY and I have had our own little box office game going on since GotG. t:

 

[regnak]

Does this guy still post here? Does he want to accept his "Wrongest Post in History" Award now or later?

It still doesn't beat a certain poster's claim that FF 2015 was going to get 90% positive reviews.

 

[Iceman]

I refused to predict on this one. I have been talking about it being easily capable of getting to $2 billion, siting articles, preaching patience and have been defending Star Wars status as the biggest movie franchise around, but I don't think I predicted anything. I didn't want to jinx it.

Also, SPIDEY and I have had our own little box office game going on since GotG. t:

Ohhh

And I was mainly talking about this: t:

Get on? I am going to start driving this thing.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well at least my 93% Rotten Tomatoes prediction for TFA was close.

Predicting 90% for Fantastic Four was silly. Fantastic Four would have been lucky to get a 20% rating with it being a rushed behind the scenes disaster.

 

[Iceman]

Have we had this update:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ Box Office Explosion: Current Estimates At $123M Friday & $245M Weekend – Friday PM Update

 

[doink]

Plenty of people did, the hype for this has been unreal

I always figured SW: TFA would break tons of box office records...it's Star Wars, after all.

And yes the guy who predicted 90% for Flopt4stic was delusional as hell...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Ohhh

And I was mainly talking about this: t:

I have not had too much confidence in the opening weekend number. I just didn't think this was possible in December and I didn't want to here all the, "Star Wars underperformed" crap that would come with it. Happily wrong on that one. But I have always had confidence in this films legs.

 

[jmc]

This thing could cross a billion dollars by next weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

New update:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

6TH UPDATE, Friday,9:48 PM: Refresh for updates It is past midnight in New York and off those figures non-Disney analysts currently see Star Wars: The Force Awakens with an opening day record of $123M en route for an all-time opening of $244.8M. These figures could be completely revised in the next 3 hours once calculations are made off midnight west coast cumes, so stay tuned. To put Force Awakens opening in perspective, consider the following: Disney made $100M from the film in just 21 hours at 1PM PST; an amount that most successful tentpoles open to in a 3-day weekend. By Sunday, Force Awakens will be $11M-$14M short of beating the entire domestic runs of the last two Hobbits which were released in December— The Desolation of Smaug ($258.4M) and The Battle of Five Armies ($255.1M). Jurassic World grossed $244M in five days. Domestic all-time grosser Avatar which opened during this frame back in 2009 to $77M and ended its stateside cume at $749.8M, took 29 days to clear $244M. However, that was during the pre-historic days of digital and 3D cinema. When Avatar opened there were 3,100 RealD screens in the U.S./Canada, now there are 14,000 with the vast majority of them playing Force Awakens.

Also the Cinema Score is an "A", with women and those under 25 giving it an "A+". The legs are going to be good.