Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[BeserkerHilf]

Let's say it ends up making $150 million worldwide (which seems like it might be very generous at the moment).

According to this article: http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable

"These deals often protect the theaters from movies that bomb at the box office by giving the theaters a bigger cut of those films. So if a film only makes $10 million at the box office, the distributor will get only 45 percent of that money. But if a film makes $300 million at the box office, then the distributor gets up to 60 percent of that money."

This film certainly qualifies as a bomb, so let's use that 45 % number. That means of $150 million, Fox may only see about $67.5 million of that.

So it looks like Fox might have lost something in the ballpark of $100 million on this film.

Does anyone seriously think they're going to convince management and shareholders to make a sequel or reboot in the next 7 years after that?

No, but I'm sure they'll spend the next 7 years "deliberating" the thought.

 

[Dark Raven]

Here we go again. Riiiight. It was the fans' fault that a film that was supposed to be made for them - but wasn't like anything they ever wanted - sucked.

Fans hate it. Critics hate it. General audiences hate it. It bombed miserably at the box office. And it's all because of the fans.

The same fans that were told time and again they were a minority and that they didn't really matter.

Before the movie came out:

FF Fans: We should boycott this movie. Let it be known we don't want this monstrosity.

FFINO defenders: That never works. Fanboys are 1% of the audience and have no effect whatsoever. The movie will do well enough without them, as the general audience will flock to see it anyway.

After the movie came out:

FF Fans: We should boycott this movie. Let it be known we don't want this monstrosity.

FFINO defenders: It's the fanboys' fault that it's done so badly.

 

[Iceman]

Let's say it ends up making $150 million worldwide (which seems like it might be very generous at the moment).

According to this article: http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable

"These deals often protect the theaters from movies that bomb at the box office by giving the theaters a bigger cut of those films. So if a film only makes $10 million at the box office, the distributor will get only 45 percent of that money. But if a film makes $300 million at the box office, then the distributor gets up to 60 percent of that money."

This film certainly qualifies as a bomb, so let's use that 45 % number. That means of $150 million, Fox may only see about $67.5 million of that.

So it looks like Fox might have lost something in the ballpark of $100 million on this film.

Does anyone seriously think they're going to convince management and shareholders to make a sequel or reboot in the next 7 years after that?

That's just for domestic isn't it? Overseas can be even less (varies by territory).

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Before the movie came out:

FF Fans: We should boycott this movie. Let it be known we don't want this monstrosity.

FFINO defenders: That never works. Fanboys are 1% of the audience and have no effect whatsoever. The movie will do well enough without them, as the general audience will flock to see it anyway.

After the movie came out:

FF Fans: We should boycott this movie. Let it be known we don't want this monstrosity.

FFINO defenders: It's the fanboys' fault that it's done so badly.

Yep. That looks about right.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

Before the movie came out:

FF Fans: We should boycott this movie. Let it be known we don't want this monstrosity.

FFINO defenders: That never works. Fanboys are 1% of the audience and have no effect whatsoever. The movie will do well enough without them, as the general audience will flock to see it anyway.

After the movie came out:

FF Fans: We should boycott this movie. Let it be known we don't want this monstrosity.

FFINO defenders: It's the fanboys' fault that it's done so badly.

Bingo. All this flip flopping is making my head spin.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That's just for domestic isn't it? Overseas can be even less (varies by territory).

I'm sure you're right, and my $150 M WW is probably high also, so I think the $100 million loss is a minimum. They're probably losing more than that.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

No, but I'm sure they'll spend the next 7 years "deliberating" the thought.

But imagine Marvel puts something on the table, let's keep it simple and say $20 million dollars.

If you're on the Fox board, you know there's no way in hell you're touching this toxic property again. Do you throw $20 million away so you can deliberate for the next 7 years and then give it back for nothing, or do you take the $20 million and wash your hands of it?

 

[Dark Raven]

Bingo. All this flip flopping is making my head spin.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

All Fox had to do to get fans on board was make a great movie. That's it.

And if there was in fact some crucible of hate well then Fox couldn't rise to the occasion.

They were measured. And they were found wanting.

 

[Kanon]

Before the movie came out:

FF Fans: We should boycott this movie. Let it be known we don't want this monstrosity.

FFINO defenders: That never works. Fanboys are 1% of the audience and have no effect whatsoever. The movie will do well enough without them, as the general audience will flock to see it anyway.

After the movie came out:

FF Fans: We should boycott this movie. Let it be known we don't want this monstrosity.

FFINO defenders: It's the fanboys' fault that it's done so badly.

2014: "They will see it anyway"
2015: "Please stop telling people how much we suck"

 

[Dark Raven]

All Fox had to do to get fans on board was make a great movie. That's it.

And if there was in fact some crucible of hate well then Fox couldn't rise to the occasion.

They were measured. And they were found wanting.

Well even if they made any semblance of a proper movie, even if it weren't a good FF movie itself, critics wouldn't have torn into it as much. If it had a proper 3 act structure and the film itself had some quality, then it could more easily be argued that it's simply a different take but still an apparently compelling film that explores things from a different angle.

But it's more like Game of Death, which I've compared it to, where Bruce Lee died before it was even completed, and they had to cobble something together to make some kind of film, even though the end result is laughable and in poor taste (with footage from his actual funeral, doubles in disguise for two thirds of the film, as well as reaction shots from his other movies or even a cardboard cut out when he's seen in the mirror).

But no-one died here during filming... except for Trank's career.

 

[Nathan]

Here we go again. Riiiight. It was the fans' fault that a film that was supposed to be made for them - but wasn't like anything they ever wanted - sucked.

Fans hate it. Critics hate it. General audiences hate it. It bombed miserably at the box office. And it's all because of the fans.

The same fans that were told time and again they were a minority and that they didn't really matter.

This is like the the reboot of the Devil May Cry game all over again. With a director who has his own vision, doesn't really watch what he says, and hardcore fans are nothing but a vocal minority. Then the game comes out, bombs hard, and suddenly the vocal minority is to blame for the game's failure.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

Well even if they made any semblance of a proper movie, even if it weren't a good FF movie itself, critics wouldn't have torn into it as much. If it had a proper 3 act structure and the film itself had some quality, then it could more easily be argued that it's simply a different take but still an apparently compelling film that explores things from a different angle.

But it's more like Game of Death, which I've compared it to, where Bruce Lee died before it was even completed, and they had to cobble something together to make some kind of film, even though the end result is laughable and in poor taste (with footage from his actual funeral, doubles in disguise for two thirds of the film, as well as reaction shots from his other movies or even a cardboard cut out when he's seen in the mirror).

But no-one died here during filming... except for Trank's career.

Yes. It's hard to fathom how Fox could have so colossally failed here. But they did.

They will never live this down. This level of fail will be immortalized.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think the "fans screwed the movie" argument would hold more water if FF wasn't the third turd in as many weeks to open to bad reviews and bomb OW. The burning trainweck that is FF is sitting right next to the smoldering piles that were Pixels and Vacation.

The message to studios here is that the days when you could toss out a crap film with a big name and make some money before word got around that it was garbage are over. Review aggregator sites and social media make it too easy for word to spread. That's what happened in all three cases.

 

[Dark Raven]

And no-one can talk about the Story films sucking anymore, because FFINO makes them look like masterpieces. Even people who say that FFINO is better than them sound like they're reaching and trying to find some kind of silver lining in all of this failure. I don't think there's one thing about this movie that is better than them.

 

[X-Maniac]

How many people are hellbent on getting the X-men back to Marvel?

Loads and loads of people. In every comment thread on the front page of SHH, in every Facebook group, and in many of the forums.

The reveal of QS prior to DoFP's release had the fanboys calling for a rights reversion. Of course the film turned out fine in spite of that. And now the look of the Deadpool movie is getting positive feedback, but the look of Apocalypse isn't and those same calls for getting X-Men back to Marvel have been coming up again.

Surely you have noticed this?!

However, this movie has looked and sounded terrible since its inception so of course people are going to be upset. This is an intellectually dishonest argument because dozens of detractors here have said since day one that all we really want is a good FF movie, but it's clear as day Fox isn't going to give us one.

I don't think some people will ever be happy until F4 are back with Disney/Marvel, however good the F4 had turned out. They believe F4 and their cosmic characters like Galactus, etc, are better used as part of the Marvel cinematic universe.

The casting of the F4 didn't bother me, neither did 'Victor Domashev' to be honest (someone called Von Doom who becomes Doctor Doom is a little hokey, though it was used in the finished product anyway). The power depictions were present and correct, except for Doom (he was way off but still recognisable). It was the basic editing, pacing and overall assembly of the final product that made it disappointing. A very gradual build-up followed by a 'one year later' shortcut and a far-too-fast finale. And of course the darker tone is light years from Disney/Marvel's far lighter offerings - it's arguable how much that contributed.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

And no-one can talk about the Story films sucking anymore, because FFINO makes them look like masterpieces. Even people who say that FFINO is better than them sound like they're reaching and trying to find some kind of silver lining in all of this failure. I don't think there's one thing about this movie that is better than them.

It's pretty hysterical when you can make the statement that both of Tim Story's Fantastic Four films were far more critically acclaimed than FFINO.

And yet those are pretty awful too. Are fans to blame for those as well? Are fans to blame for the fact that Fox has never had success with a Marvel property other than X-Men? Are fans to blame for the fact that the two worst Marvel adaptations of all time were made by - you guessed it - Fox!

 

[Dark Raven]

Loads and loads of people. In every comment thread on the front page of SHH, in every Facebook group, and in many of the forums.

The reveal of QS prior to DoFP's release had the fanboys calling for a rights reversion. Of course the film turned out fine in spite of that. And now the look of the Deadpool movie is getting positive feedback, but the look of Apocalypse isn't and those same calls for getting X-Men back to Marvel have been coming up again.

Surely you have noticed this?!



I don't think some people will ever be happy until F4 are back with Disney/Marvel, however good the F4 had turned out. They believe F4 and their cosmic characters like Galactus, etc, are better used as part of the Marvel cinematic universe.

The casting of the F4 didn't bother me, neither did 'Victor Domashev' to be honest (someone called Von Doom who becomes Doctor Doom is a little hokey, though it was used in the finished product anyway). The power depictions were present and correct, except for Doom (he was way off but still recognisable). It was the basic editing, pacing and overall assembly of the final product that made it disappointing. A very gradual build-up followed by a 'one year later' shortcut and a far-too-fast finale. And of course the darker tone is light years from Disney/Marvel's far lighter offerings - it's arguable how much that contributed.

Given how this film turned out to be a complete turd and the way it's been savaged, the casting of the team and being called Domashev wouldn't bother me either. In fact, I would've preferred he was called Domashev for this piece of crap instead of Doom. Trying to dress up a turd by sprinkling some icing on top doesn't make it a cake. It's still a turd. So might as well keep it 100% a turd.

It's pretty hysterical when you can make the statement that both of Tim Story's Fantastic Four films were far more critically acclaimed than FFINO.

And yet those are pretty awful too. Are fans to blame for those as well? Are fans to blame for the fact that Fox has never had success with a Marvel property other than X-Men? Are fans to blame for the fact that the two worst Marvel adaptations of all time were made by - you guessed it - Fox!

And no-one can possibly argue with this now. Because they were. It's not even a matter of opinion, as if some simply preferred them to FFINO. No, Trank's film has been universally derided by critics as well as fans, and it's all there in virtually every review on the internet and evident in the RT scores.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

someone called Von Doom who becomes Doctor Doom is a little hokey, though it was used in the finished product anyway

You're right. Nobody named Doctor Doom could ever exist in the real world.

http://cecs.wright.edu/~doom/

 

[Kanon]

They tried Van Damme, and sounded stupid, they tried Domashev, sounded stupid. How many more tries until just accepting that there is not a problem with just Doom?

 

[Pokkle]

I think the hardcore Marvel minions were (and are) hellbent on getting F4 rights back to Disney/Marvel. However the film turned out, that is their desire.

With every piece of information released that went against classic and traditional ideas of what the F4 are about, the fanboys used it as ammunition.

It was a bitter and hateful campaign.

The end result is a misfire but, in my view, it isn't a 9% disaster, despite the RT score. Catwoman is far worse, so is GR2. Odeon cinema viewers rate it 3 out of 5 if that gives you a sense of life outside the intensity of the geek bubble.

There's no geek bubble here.
Even Cinemascore give the film a C-, imdb score is bad, metacritic score is bad.
Even in France, the critics and the GA hate it in allocine.

 

[X-Maniac]

You're right. Nobody named Doctor Doom could ever exist in the real world.

http://cecs.wright.edu/~doom/

LOL... my point was having a real name that becomes (or is similar to) the eventual hero/villain name and their intentions/powers/activities.

Rather like E.Nygma becoming Riddler, or Victor Fries becoming Mr Freeze.

It's a bit hokey.

 

[X-Maniac]

They tried Van Damme, and sounded stupid, they tried Domashev, sounded stupid. How many more tries until just accepting that there is not a problem with just Doom?

Clearly you didn't see the movie. He was called Victor Von Doom. And he wasn't a blogger.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I'm sure you're right, and my $150 M WW is probably high also, so I think the $100 million loss is a minimum. They're probably losing more than that.

This is going to be remembered for a LONG time as one of the biggest bombs of all-time. It will be named right alongside films like Heaven's Gate, Ishtar, and Cutthroat Island.

 

[Nathan]

I guess I wouldn't be bothered if Doom would only ever be called Doom. Someone like Reed would always call him by his first name, but everyone else would probably just call him Doom. Kinda how the Brotherhood of Evil Mutants was simply shorted to The Brotherhood.