Solo Han Solo Movie Box office Thread - Part 1

[Stark Bauer]

Unless we are talking about extreme cases like what Disney demanded from the theaters in the U.S for its mainline Star Wars films , the difference between domestic and overseas take for the studios is extremely small in general. China is a special case.

Anyway I thought box office in forums is mostly used to gouge popularity and success for a movie and thus worldwide matters more since it shows how acceptable a movie is well....around the world .

Using just U.S box office creates an illusion, TFA is not a bigger movie than avatar or titanic and neither is black panther a bigger movie than infinity war.

Right, but how far are we going to go with this logic?

Why don’t we use adjusted gross? Gone With The Wind will always be the biggest movie of all time if we take into account inflation and population.

And what of RT score? As far as I know most of the reviews are in English from mostly North Americans. Why not include international reviews too? In other languages etc?

 

[Adder]

Unless we are talking about extreme cases like what Disney demanded from the theaters in the U.S for its mainline Star Wars films , the difference between domestic and overseas take for the studios is extremely small in general. China is a special case.

Anyway I thought box office in forums is mostly used to gouge popularity and success for a movie and thus worldwide matters more since it shows how acceptable a movie is well....around the world .

Using just U.S box office creates an illusion, TFA is not a bigger movie than avatar or titanic and neither is black panther a bigger movie than infinity war.

You are obviously correct but it's too triggering for some to admit.

 

[Johnglen]

Right, but how far are we going to go with this logic?

Why don’t we use adjusted gross? Gone With The Wind will always be the biggest movie of all time if we take into account inflation and population.

And what of RT score? As far as I know most of the reviews are in English from mostly North Americans. Why not include international reviews too? In other languages etc?

Using worldwide box office numbers is going far ? Sorry but what ? It’s definately not the same with using adjusted grosses for movies from different eras that were released under different conditions, it’s the normal thing to do.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Using worldwide box office numbers is going far ? Sorry but what ? It’s definately not the same with using adjusted grosses for movies from different eras that were released under different conditions, it’s the normal thing to do.

I’m not saying it’s going far. I’m saying why not look at other metrics as well?
What is wrong with using adjusted box office?

.. What is normal for you isn’t normal for me. There is no normal. Just boundaries that are determined by society and governmental laws. Normal is limiting. Normal is boring. The internet is anything but normal.

Anyway you go knock yourself out with your worldwide numbers- that’s your thing. I acknowledge my lack of knowledge in that domain. Domestic is my forte.

I will just agree to disagree respectfully.

Domestic or otherwise, Solo is a burning pile of BM that will FAIL to reach $220 million domestic and $400 million worldwide. And that is completely fine with me.

 

[Last Skywalker]

I’m not saying it’s going far. I’m saying why not look at other metrics as well?

What is wrong with using adjusted box office?

Because its cooked numbers and favors movies that have had many re-releases, something that doesn't tend to happen a lot these days.

Gone With The Wind didn't even go wide release until 1940 and didn't make a lot of its money until much later, but every dollar is graded as if it were made in 1939. Trying to claim it was ever the highest grossing film of all time, was always a bad joke.

Anyway you go knock yourself out with your worldwide numbers- that’s your thing. I acknowledge my lack of knowledge in that domain. Domestic is my forte.

These days, its always about worldwide numbers. Some people are old and conservative and still cling to domestic, but you generally go by how much money a movie made, not where it was made.

As an example... PoTC4. If we go by domestic, it wasn't much better than Solo is now (it made $241 million). Yet it made a billion dollars when you include foreign, so we got POTC5.

PoTC 4 is a big success and saved due to foreign dollars.
Solo is a flop for the same reason.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Gone With The Wind has been re-released many many times over many decades and BoxOfficeMojo unfortunately shoves nearly all the releases into one pot and doesn't break it down. It does the same thing to the OT Star Wars movies as well.

December 15th, 1939 (Exclusive) by MGM (Atlanta Premiere)
January 17th, 1941 (Wide) by MGM
March 31st, 1942 (Wide) by MGM
August 21st, 1947 (Wide) by MGM
June 3rd, 1954 (Wide) by MGM
March 10th, 1961 (Wide) by MGM
October 14th, 1967 (Wide) by MGM
September 18th, 1974 (Wide) by MGM
February 3rd, 1989 (Limited) by MGM
June 26th, 1998 (Limited) by MGM

 

[Johnglen]

Because its cooked numbers and favors movies that have had many re-releases, something that doesn't tend to happen a lot these days.

Gone With The Wind didn't even go wide release until 1940 and didn't make a lot of its money until much later, but every dollar is graded as if it were made in 1939. Trying to claim it was ever the highest grossing film of all time, was always a bad joke.



These days, its always about worldwide numbers. Some people are old and conservative and still cling to domestic, but you generally go by how much money a movie made, not where it was made.

As an example... PoTC4. If we go by domestic, it wasn't much better than Solo is now (it made $241 million). Yet it made a billion dollars when you include foreign, so we got POTC5.

PoTC 4 is a big success and saved due to foreign dollars.
Solo is a flop for the same reason.

Great post. I dont see how someone could argue that using worldwide numbers is the same with using adjusted numbers.

As you mention overseas markets make all the difference in the world nowadays with your great POTC4 example. The fate of the furious did 226 million in the U.S, such and unimpressive number...except that it did another 1+ billion overseas.

 

[dataSlave]

These days, its always about worldwide numbers. Some people are old and conservative and still cling to domestic, but you generally go by how much money a movie made, not where it was made.

As an example... PoTC4. If we go by domestic, it wasn't much better than Solo is now (it made $241 million). Yet it made a billion dollars when you include foreign, so we got POTC5.

PoTC 4 is a big success and saved due to foreign dollars.
Solo is a flop for the same reason.

Solo is a flop, domestically and overseas. And which you should use and how really depends on what you're trying to gauge. For overall popularity, global is fine. To measure financial success, I'd look at domestic first, then non-China foreign markets and China last of all. A movies has to make $2.50 in China to have the same impact as $1.00 of domestic revenue.

 

[dataSlave]

Domestic or otherwise, Solo is a burning pile of BM that will FAIL to reach $220 million domestic and $400 million worldwide. And that is completely fine with me.

A friend of mine said Disney could take a dump in a box, slap a SW label on it and sell $1 billion worth of tickets. He was right but apparently they can only do that once before the customers catch on.

 

[Last Skywalker]

A friend of mine said Disney could take a dump in a box, slap a SW label on it and sell $1 billion worth of tickets. He was right but apparently they can only do that once before the customers catch on.

Savage burn.

I like it.

Solo is a flop, domestically and overseas. And which you should use and how really depends on what you're trying to gauge. For overall popularity, global is fine. To measure financial success, I'd look at domestic first, then non-China foreign markets and China last of all. A movies has to make $2.50 in China to have the same impact as $1.00 of domestic revenue.

Or you can simply compare what the movie made against its cost. Pretty much the only determination of success in Hollywood. Did you make money or did you not?

 

[Stark Bauer]

Because its cooked numbers and favors movies that have had many re-releases, something that doesn't tend to happen a lot these days.

Gone With The Wind didn't even go wide release until 1940 and didn't make a lot of its money until much later, but every dollar is graded as if it were made in 1939. Trying to claim it was ever the highest grossing film of all time, was always a bad joke.



These days, its always about worldwide numbers. Some people are old and conservative and still cling to domestic, but you generally go by how much money a movie made, not where it was made.

As an example... PoTC4. If we go by domestic, it wasn't much better than Solo is now (it made $241 million). Yet it made a billion dollars when you include foreign, so we got POTC5.

PoTC 4 is a big success and saved due to foreign dollars.
Solo is a flop for the same reason.

Good valid points. I prefer not to make my predictions on worldwide because honestly it is hard for me to predict or gauge the interest of niche type movies or specific genres in parts of the world where i do not live - Pacific Rim is a prime example.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Gone With The Wind has been re-released many many times over many decades and BoxOfficeMojo unfortunately shoves nearly all the releases into one pot and doesn't break it down. It does the same thing to the OT Star Wars movies as well.

Thanks for clarifying

 

[Stark Bauer]

I re-analyzed the Solo box office trajectory - domestically lol - that’s my expertise -

Solo looking to finish between $214-216 million in North America. That’s as accurate as I can get it at the moment. It could exceed 216 but highly unlikely to exceed 218 which in my mind is the absolute ceiling.

I wound up with this number by analyzing the other 3 Disney Star Wars films weekly gross and used the rule of halves - which is a very optimistic outlook - this week Solo is looking to make 7-8 million and all remaining weeks half and so on. Which would bring a remaining total of 14-16 million domestically.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Solo's making around $6.7M this week (Friday through Thursday).

The huge loss of screens this week is hurting it more than in its past.

 

[terry78]

The rumor Mill is that Disney is looking to oust Kennedy for this.

 

[Gladius Nova]

The rumor Mill is that Disney is looking to just Kennedy for this.

 

[terry78]

Oust. The damn autocorrect.

 

[Gladius Nova]

Oust. The damn autocorrect.

Oh...

 

[Last Skywalker]

It typically happens when the people in charge allow the well they're in charge of to be poisoned. Should be absolutely no surprises here.

 

[Ozbridge]

The rumor Mill is that Disney is looking to oust Kennedy for this.

You ought to cite sources to make your rumors more reliable.

There's rumors that it is increasingly drawing to a close. Rumors that at least they're put out there by people that aren't anonymous I guess. Time will tell.

Richard Rushfield, The Ankler Report: "The talk out there is of a September changing of the guards. We'll see. There’s also plenty of reason to believe that Kennedy herself is tiring of this... An Ankler friend points out that she elected not to stand again for the AMPAS Board of Governors, even though she had not been termed out, suggesting that someone who has been omnipresent at poohbah conclaves for forty years now may finally be looking to scale back."(early June 2018 premium newsletter) (Richard Rushfield paraphrase): (38m0s) "Nothing will likely happen in terms of a shift of leadership [of Lucasfilm] before the Fall." (video)

Mike Fleming Jr., Deadline: "there have been rumors about how long Kennedy will continue. Even as a hot rumor that Feige might take oversight on Lucasfilm fare was roundly denied." (June 11, 2018)

Grace Randolph, Beyond The Trailer: "I can't obviously give away my source but I can tell you this news originated from deep inside Pinewood Studios (in the U.K.)... So there was a call - a secret conference call with all the top Star Wars brass in attendance. The kind of call where apparently security guards stand outside the different conference room doors and make sure that no one eavesdrops, right. But here's the kicker - top brass from not just Star Wars but also from Marvel and Pixar were also in on the call but listening only - likely at the request of Bob Iger who wants their advice on how to fix this **** show. And yes, he does know it's a **** show. Evidence? The word that he wants Kathleen Kennedy out - he actually does, but nobody will take her job. Several have been approached but turned it down, including J. J. Abrams who turned it down flat and didn't even hesistate." (June 25, 2018)

According to Grace her sources (which of course she wasn’t able to give away) said that Robert Iger wanted Kathleen Kennedy out and had offered Abrams the job but he refused.

 

[terry78]

Google it. Nothing definite, just things I see in my feed from various sites.

 

[Frodo]

I heard the story too. While I'm not certain how reliable it is, I certainly suspect they'll be some sort of changes post Episode 9.

Whether that means something on a smaller scale such as changing the story group and putting the spin offs on hold, or something bigger such as a new head of creative or a new head of Lucasfilm all together, is anyone's guess.

Whatever the case, it wouldn't surprise me if Episode 9 serves as the end of a "phase one" of sorts and in "phase two" they take a different approach to the projects and make some course corrects.

Despite what alot of fanboys tend to think , adjusting to changing circumstances and course corrects can actually be a good thing and make a franchise stronger in the long run.

There's nothing wrong with changing your mind , provided the changes help a franchise.

 

[TheVileOne]

Will wait until we actually hear something real about this and something from Beyond the Trailer.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Star Wars Episode IX: Return Of George Lucas

 

[sueb1863]

Maybe they'll take the ideas for the anthology films and make limited run animated series instead, and only do saga film trilogies in the theaters. So there'd only be a new SW movie every two or three years.