In the '90s, newly accessible video tech- nology gave adventurous  filmmakers (such as Lars von Trier and his colleagues in the filmmaking  movement Dogme 95) an unprecedented wedge for questioning the form of  motion pictures. The resulting 20-year process of radical technical and  aesthetic change has now been co-opted by the very establishment it  sought to challenge.
Hungry for savings, studios are ditching  film prints (under $600 each), while already bridling at the mere $80  per screen for digital drives. They want satellite distribution up and  running within 10 years. Quentin Tarantino's recent observation that  digital projection is the "death of cinema" identifies this fork in the  road: For a century, movies have been defined by the physical medium  (even Dogme 95 insisted on 35mm film as the presentation format).
Savings will be trivial. The real prize the corporations see is the flexibility of a nonphysical medium.
As  streams of data, movies would be thrown in with other endeavors under  the reductive term "content," jargon that pretends to elevate the  creative, but actually trivializes differences of form that have been  important to creators and audiences alike. "Content" can be ported  across phones, watches, gas-station pumps or any other screen, and the  idea would be that movie theaters should acknowledge their place as just  another of these "platforms," albeit with bigger screens and  cupholders.
This is a future in which the theater becomes what  Tarantino pinpointed as "television in public." The channel-changing  part is key. The distributor or theater owner (depending on the vital  question of who controls the remote) would be able to change the content  being played, instantly. A movie's Friday matinees would determine  whether it even gets an evening screening, or whether the projector  switches back to last week's blockbuster. This process could even be  automated based on ticket sales in the interests of "fairness."
Instant  reactivity always favors the familiar. New approaches need time to  gather support from audiences. Smaller, more unusual films would be shut  out. Innovation would shift entirely to home-based entertainment, with  the remaining theaters serving exclusively as gathering places for  fan-based or branded-event titles.
This bleak future is the  direction the industry is pointed in, but even if it arrives it will not  last. Once movies can no longer be defined by technology, you unmask  powerful fundamentalsthe timelessness, the otherworldliness, the shared  experience of these narratives. We moan about intrusive moviegoers, but  most of us feel a pang of disappointment when we find ourselves in an  empty theater.
The audience experience is distinct from home  entertainment, but not so much that people seek it out for its own sake.  The experience must distinguish itself in other ways. And it will. The  public will lay down their money to those studios, theaters and  filmmakers who value the theatrical experience and create a new  distinction from home entertainment that will enthralljust as movies  fought back with widescreen and multitrack sound when television first  nipped at its heels.
These developments will require innovation,  experimentation and expense, not cost-cutting exercises disguised as  digital "upgrades" or gimmickry aimed at justifying variable ticket  pricing. The theatrical window is to the movie business what live  concerts are to the music businessand no one goes to a concert to be  played an MP3 on a bare stage.
The theaters of the future will be  bigger and more beautiful than ever before. They will employ expensive  presentation formats that cannot be accessed or reproduced in the home  (such as, ironically, film prints). And they will still enjoy  exclusivity, as studios relearn the tremendous economic value of the  staggered release of their products.
The projects that most  obviously lend themselves to such distinctions are spectacles. But if  history is any guide, all genres, all budgets will follow. Because the  cinema of the future will depend not just on grander presentation, but  on the emergence of filmmakers inventive enough to command the focused  attention of a crowd for hours.
These new voices will emerge just  as we despair that there is nothing left to be discovered. As in the  early '90s, when years of bad multiplexing had soured the public on  movies, and a young director named Quentin Tarantino ripped through  theaters with a profound sense of cinema's past and an instinct for  reclaiming cinema's rightful place at the head of popular culture.
Never  before has a system so willingly embraced the radical teardown of its  own formal standards. But no standards means no rules. Whether  photochemical or video-based, a film can now look or sound like  anything.
It's unthinkable that extraordinary new work won't emerge from such an open structure. That's the part I can't wait for.