Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Marvin]

Read this elsewhere

1989 saw the first modern Batman movie with Tim Burton's film (in terms of a serious mature take on the character).

Before that, people (who didn't read comics) only knew of the campy 1960s Adam West. Since then, we've had a series of modern Batman films...you know...minus the Schumacher films.

Make no mistake. Man of Steel will be the first modern Superman film to take the character seriously in a mature manner.

Before this, people (once again, those who didn't read comic) only knew of the campy, albeit charming, Richard Donner/Richard Lester/Bryan Singer films which portrayed an overly civic-minded Boy Scout that was ridiculously powerful enough to fly back in time and lift large land masses. This is what has caused fanboys to cry while creaming/crapping their pants.

For all the credit nolan get's alot of what he(and goyer) did was simply start putting the source material on the screen for the average person to see. Add to that the simple genius of giving a music video director a good script and at the very least we're looking at an IronMan 1 type of box office showing. I however think we're moving more towards a pirates/transformers type of showing. The main difference being the box office competition.

I just hope against hope that WB doesn't pull a begins/asm and release on Weds. Hold fast and make a statement.

 

[Mysteryman]

Yeah I dread the possibilty of a Wednesday opening as well.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

A 325M total for the domestic b.o. would be fantastic!
I'll put my predictions around 800M ww now.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

$400million to $500million.

I'm just not confident with Zack Snyder and I see this movie performing like Batman Begins.

 

[Excel]

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2013-04-long-range-forecast-man-of-steel-this-is-the-end

The Man Of Steel #s are certainly in the general consensus ball park. But...This Is The End is going to do...half of those numbers. If that. Also, World War Z is no threat whatsoever. Man Of Steels 2nd weekend may very likely be larger than WWZ's opening weekend.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

The Man Of Steel #s are certainly in the general consensus ball park. But...This Is The End is going to do...half of those numbers. If that. Also, World War Z is no threat whatsoever. Man Of Steels 2nd weekend may very likely be larger than WWZ's opening weekend.

Excellent.

 

[G.Godfrey]

The biggest mystery is the foreign market. My prediction for international gross is very optimistic but it's honestly very hard to predict how well MOS will take off overseas. I think with the expanding market and the addition of 3D it should sell more tickets than SR and hopefully match it's international gross with the domestic (assuming it does 320+ million). It may even far surpass it but again, this is something I really can't say with confidence. And I have no idea what WB is doing or has planned in terms of promoting MOS overseas. We'll see I guess.

 

[G.Godfrey]

I would hope it will at least do better than TASM. So around 800k.

Well I sure hope it does more than 800k. I'm not sure if that would get us a sequel.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

The biggest mystery is the foreign market. My prediction for international gross is very optimistic but it's honestly very hard to predict how well MOS will take off overseas. I think with the expanding market and the addition of 3D it should sell more tickets than SR and hopefully match it's international gross with the domestic (assuming it does 320+ million). It may even far surpass it but again, this is something I really can't say with confidence. And I have no idea what WB is doing or has planned in terms of promoting MOS overseas. We'll see I guess.

I think it will do very well, considering that far less well known super hero brands managed to make around 300M in the last years.
As you've said, the market greatly expanded, and I'd say the floor for MOS is around 350M.

 

[Pickle-El]

After the last trailer and seemingly overwhelming online praise,
I think I'll stick with
Domestic 300-350
Int 350-450

I think around 725ww with a great reception would be sublime for the WB. So long as this thing hits 250 domestic, we are pretty much guaranteed a sequel.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

After the last trailer and seemingly overwhelming online praise,
I think I'll stick with
Domestic 300-350
Int 350-450

I think around 725ww with a great reception would be sublime for the WB. So long as this thing hits 250 domestic, we are pretty much guaranteed a sequel.

Agreed. Those are great numbers for a movie; specially for a reboot.

 

[747]

Realistic guess: 600

Hopeful Superman fan guess: 800

 

[Mysteryman]

It seems like once a week we get somebody who wants to say 1billion worldwide.
Any Super Optimists here this week?

 

[DorneyDave]

What did Batman Begins do? I would say it would do about 150-200 million more than that.

 

[Micromind]

Spider-Man is a lot more popular character in Asia even Batman is not as popular as Spider-Man over there.

Superman is nowhere as popular, so no matter how great and exciting MOS movies is, it will never make as much money as Spider-Man there.

Overseas market will be always less than Superman's domestic take. If for example, MOS makes 270 mil in US, then overseas it will make a bit less than that (say 250 mil.)

 

[Mad Love]

Superman is nowhere as popular? Overseas market will be always less than Superman's domestic take?

Are you basing all these conclusions on Superman Returns? Superman the Movie already proves you wrong.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Spider-Man is a lot more popular character in Asia even Batman is not as popular as Spider-Man over there.

Superman is nowhere as popular, so no matter how great and exciting MOS movies is, it will never make as much money as Spider-Man there.

Overseas market will be always less than Superman's domestic take. If for example, MOS makes 270 mil in US, then overseas it will make a bit less than that (say 250 mil.)

It doesn't really work like this. Specially when you take in account the size of the foreign market nowadays.
Anyway, I'm sure MOS' numbers will prove what I'm stating here.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

After that epic trailer, it would be absolutely ludicrous if the film were to make anything less than $550 million. At the moment, I would say:

OW: $103 Million
Dom: Anywhere from $280 to $300+ Million
WW: $660 Million

 

[combocaz]

700mil plus

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I wouldn't be surprised if it does Amazing Spider-Man-type numbers overseas.

 

[flickchick85]

On 4/6/13:

I read the latest edition of Box Office Magazine... their prediction for MOS was a $68M weekend and $240M cume.

Now:

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2013-04-long-range-forecast-man-of-steel-this-is-the-end
Opening Weekend: $108,000,000
Total Domestic Gross: $325,000,000

My my, what a difference a little marketing makes. t:

 

[Bruce Malone]

I wouldn't be surprised if it does Amazing Spider-Man-type numbers overseas.

The thing is spider-man is huge over-seas especially asia. Its overseas gross was really what made TASM a hit technically as it's domestic take was the lowest of the series with 3D ticket prices and everything.

It took literally 6 films before batman really was fully embraced overseas, even TDK technically "under-performed" proportionally overseas compared to how big it was domestically.

So it's hard to say what supermans impact will be in those markets but i'd say not as well as spider-man.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

The thing is spider-man is huge over-seas especially asia. Its overseas gross was really what made TASM a hit technically as it's domestic take was the lowest of the series with 3D ticket prices and everything.

It took literally 6 films before batman really was fully embraced overseas, even TDK technically "under-performed" proportionally overseas compared to how big it was domestically.

So it's hard to say what supermans impact will be in those markets but i'd say not as well as spider-man.

So...maybe somewhere in the $270 million range? Internationally of course.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yeah unless i'm wrong about how superman is embraced overseas i think it's overseas numbers will moderate it's overall take somewhat. Iron Man 2 for instance grossed over 300 million domestically but it's WW take was about $620 million, since its overseas numbers weren't massive.

 

[Astrodust]

3D pictures tend to do well overseas especially a tentpole film like this. I think MoS does extremely well overseas.