Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Kryptonian Titan]

Underpredicting can lead to being happy and satisfied when it passes that figure.

If I feel this film is going to make 300+ in the US, I can't go below 600 total. (again, I'm over 700 ... pretty close to you, although maybe a slight bit less domestic) I just can't imagine a world in where this film does less than 300 overseas when Superman Returns did 200 million without 3D and before overseas markets had expanded to what they are now. Either way, I have to assume that WB is looking for Iron Man 1 numbers, not TA, TDK or Iron Man 3 #s.

But regardless, it's not sniffing Iron Man 3 due to that films expansion overseas due to The Avengers. That film has 350 MINIMUM in US and 700 Overseas for probably TDKR total of 1.05 to 1.1 billion.

Maybe Man of Steel 2 can get closer to those figures if it's a great film.

Agreed; specially with the part in bold.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

It going to be so sweet when all these people that dont think this movie will make more than 300 mil doms are proven wrong.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Box office mojo has predicted a 650 million worldwide total. I think it will do between 650-700

Very reasonable. I say it'll make anywhere from $600 to $700 million.

 

[Showtime]

I think Iron Man 3 is so strong critically and the general public loves Downey. It wins the Summer with a lot of help from the awareness created by Avengers. I think Man Of Steel has a good showing domestically but finishes a bit under 300 million. I think the film that figures have dropped for in my mind is Trek.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I think Iron Man 3 is so strong critically and the general public loves Downey. It wins the Summer with a lot of help from the awareness created by Avengers. I think Man Of Steel has a good showing domestically but finishes a bit under 300 million. I think the film that figures have dropped for in my mind is Trek.

With that in mind, I still say it'll at least make $285 million domestically.

 

[Marvin]

What did box office mojo predict for Avengers?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

If memory serves me correct, $350M ish.

Nobody can foresee a gross like that.

 

[Liam_H]

I believe it was over $400 million(?) with TDKR like $500 million. But one of their WTF ones was TDKR having a foreign gross of $850 million, Batman isn't HP.

 

[N7 Joseph Shepard]

interesting.....here's hoping like both TDKR & Avengers, MOS destroys their predictions

 

[Liam_H]

Just Avengers, TDKR underperformed according to them.

 

[Marvin]

If memory serves me correct, $350M ish.

Nobody can foresee a gross like that.

At the same time, in hindsight it was pretty plain to see.

Between, Superman(biggest, most known hero property), Nolan(tremendously hot brand right now) and Snyder(high impact visuals and in need of a solid goyer script), there is a good chance this might be another "I should have known" moment.

Not saying it will be but there's a good chance.

 

[GreenKToo]

most of us aren't willing to predict the moon for mos, especially since it's a reboot.
I made that mistake with SR and its BO.
If mos breaks the bank none will be more happy than me.

 

[Dr.]

most of us aren't willing to predict the moon for mos, especially since it's a reboot. I made that mistake with SR and its BO.
If mos breaks the bank none will be more happy than me.

SR had a relatively soft opening weekend ($53M - expected to be higher). So while you might analyze (after the fact) that SR’s overall modest BO was pretty much what it deserved, this doesn’t explain the first weekend. Even if bad w-o-m had caused it to plummet thereafter, the “Superman brand” - in theory - should have insured a robust opening. The fact that it didn’t have one maybe says something about the strength of the “brand” (despite what loyal fans think). And this might apply to MOS as well.

That said, it is 7 years later; the genre has evolved and it seems there’s a different “vibe” in the air for MOS. That’s to its advantage (imo).

 

[moviefreak]

Here's a reminder about the box office climate in 2006 when Superman Returns came out:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/spi...up_quotsuperman_returnsquot_to_top_of_charts/

Flying to the top of the charts, Superman Returns collected an estimated $52.2M over the Friday-to-Sunday period and $84.2M since its launch on Wednesday. The PG-13 film was the first new installment for the beloved comic book characeter in nearly two decades and averaged a strong $12,829 over three days from a massive 4,065 theaters. The total gross included about $3M from Tuesday night previews which began at 10:00pm and $5M from 76 Imax theaters where the film was presented with special 3D footage. The studio expects to reach a seven-day tally of $110M by the end of Tuesday.

 

[moviefreak]

Also, Superman Returns had to content with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest opening in the 2nd week. It would not have matter if Superman Returns had turned out to be an awesome summer movie, alas it was not to be.

 

[snpklsdmbldr]

I think the movie will gross at least 700 Million, acceptable for a reboot/first movie.

 

[GreenKToo]

Also, Superman Returns had to content with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest opening in the 2nd week. It would not have matter if Superman Returns had turned out to be an awesome summer movie, alas it was not to be.

I dont buy the a movie cant do good because so and so movie was released so close. remember may 2007? shrek 3 spidey 3 and potc 3 all were released within 3 weeks of each other. all had long life and made excellent bank. granted, none were reboots, but if a film is good, the people will come, no matter the competition.

 

[moviefreak]

I dont buy the a movie cant do good because so and so movie was released so close. remember may 2007? shrek 3 spidey 3 and potc 3 all were released within 3 weeks of each other. all had long life and made excellent bank. granted, none were reboots, but if a film is good, the people will come, no matter the competition.

It's hard to say for sure. But it was definitely the lacklustre nature of Superman Returns - neither exciting nor appealing that contributed to its underperformance at BO.

I was slightly dissapointed at the end of the film as I was expecting some thing better, better thna Superman TM which I saw on the opening night in 1978. I based this on history - having been to opening week since 1970s amongst others Star Wars/ESB, Alien, Grease, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T., Superman TM/II. These were not only event films but also pure entertainment outing. Films like TDK and The Avengers attempted it - just about.

 

[Marvin]

I dont buy the a movie cant do good because so and so movie was released so close. remember may 2007? shrek 3 spidey 3 and potc 3 all were released within 3 weeks of each other. all had long life and made excellent bank. granted, none were reboots, but if a film is good, the people will come, no matter the competition.

Avengers opens up a week after any film, TDKR in particular, it's not only taking screens away it's taking audience and money.
More over, if no other film opens up in the subsequent weeks following a release, then you get alot more general off the street walk ins.
More over some people like to save their money and actually have to choose particular films to see...

All that and more contribute to the notion that congested release schedule's affect each other. Lest we see Avengers2/StarWarsAbrams and Avatar2 released on the same day to drive the point home. That wouldn't be fair to the argument I suppose, so perhaps release each film on following weeks. Might not affect Totals as much but it sure as hell would affect openings.

The thing about those sequels you mentioned is that they were kind of sure things. I would say the same about the Avengers sequel. MoS might not be in the same place GA wise as the sequel to Pirates 1 or the sequel to the best spiderman movie ever with his most famous rouge or another installment to pretty much the most bankable animated franchise there is. If you replace Spidey 3 with Captain America I'm sure Cap would suffer for it.

 

[DarkKnight FTW]

I think it'll have a $110 million opening weekend based on strong wom and will remain in first the following weekend at $60 million. I see $500-600 million WW.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

No way. Monsters University is winning that weekend.

 

[DarkKnight FTW]

No way. Monsters University is winning that weekend.

Not if MOS makes $110+ million opening weekend.

 

[Skrilla31]

At the same time, in hindsight it was pretty plain to see.

Between, Superman(biggest, most known hero property), Nolan(tremendously hot brand right now) and Snyder(high impact visuals and in need of a solid goyer script), there is a good chance this might be another "I should have known" moment.

Not saying it will be but there's a good chance.

I kind of agree. I just have this gut feeling that MOS is going to smash expectations. It's too hard to gauge right now because we're in the middle of Iron Man's run, but once that movie has already been out for a month and people start seeing the spots for Man Of Steel... I just don't think we we have any idea just what type of momentum this thing is gonna have come June.

And if the word of mouth is right, the sky is the limit. I'm not saying Avengers or Dark Knight type of popularity... but right under it.

 

[J.Howlett]

I think Iron Man 3 is so strong critically and the general public loves Downey. It wins the Summer with a lot of help from the awareness created by Avengers. I think Man Of Steel has a good showing domestically but finishes a bit under 300 million. I think the film that figures have dropped for in my mind is Trek.

Iron Man 3's legs all depend on how general audiences take to the middle of the film and the twist...

 

[ConnorKon-El]

Iron Man 3's legs all depend on how general audiences take to the middle of the film and the twist...

True True.

Spoiler

I have yet to see the film and maybe it'll be better in the context of the film. But damn, it like undermines Kingsley's whole character imo.