Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Nvmyprixgt]

Box office mojo has predicted a 650 million worldwide total. I think it will do between 650-700

 

[The Shield]

i think $800 mil would likely be their take to regard it as a massive hit with the GA .. IMO

i think they'd be happy with anything north of $650 mil as a 1st out .. i'm goin' along with the $700 mil territory myself IF the critics give it positive reviews & word of mouth is good .. 300 & 400 for 700ww

personally i'd eat my own skivvies if it doesn't exceed 500ww .. i just can't see anything less considering all the hype surrounding this film .. but, for me, it comes down to the crits & word of mouth just prior & after release to figure how much legs this'll have ..

if the reviews come back positive & people talk, it might surprise us on the upside ww .. hoping for that .. would also be interesting to see how the WallMart sales will do come May 18th .. might give an indication of demand ?

That's the biggie. Word of mouth is going to be what get those numbers to $600 or more. Man, it would be awesome if everyone loved this movie as much as I feel I'm going to.

 

[Rhonimus]

That's the biggie. Word of mouth is going to be what get those numbers to $600 or more. Man, it would be awesome if everyone loved this movie as much as I feel I'm going to.

i'll go out on a limb and state this: if the full length movie generates the same "feel" throughout as T#3 did, then we might be surprised by the ww take at the end if it's run ..

 

[metaphysician]

repost:

Oh and you can bet that the REAL budget is much higher than 175-200. 500 million WW would be a major disappointment from the studios perspective. Don't feel like breaking down the economics of it, but a simple google search will illustrate why MoS needs to make 700m plus to be considered a success. 600 million would be like breaking even and would have a negative effect on all future DC projects.

Kang, i agree with what you said about foreign markets. 300 million overseas would be a pretty lousy number for this movie, reboot or no.

OTOH, bear in mind that dollars spent on marketing are not the equivalent of dollars spent on production. Especially for a big conglomerate like WB, most of the marketing budget is actually reciprocal licensing ( ie "barter ) with other parties. WB "pays" 7-11 to produce Man of Steel slushies in the coin of "license to use our IP" rather than dollars. 7-11 in turn "pays" WB for this in the coin of "contract to use and distribute slushies using MoS promotional imagery." Both of these things have actual value, converted into dollars, but its not really the same as WB spending dollars on things like salaries and filming. Thus why marketing costs really should be separated from production costs, even though they are non-zero.

 

[Marvin]

i'll go out on a limb and state this: if the full length movie generates the same "feel" throughout as T#3 did, then we might be surprised by the ww take at the end if it's run ..

Terminator 3 wasn't a hit...

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Terminator 3 wasn't a hit...

It was considered a hit, yes.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

So how do we feel about BOM's estimate ? 650 for the film is very reasonable. Give or take, I think they hit it right on the mark.
I personally would be very happy with the film making 600-650 ww.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Too high.

Realistically I'm thinking $550-$600M worldwide is best case scenario. Anything past that is gravy.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't like any of BOM predictions. I'm wrong all the time though so maybe they will be right.

I think I'm still at 610mil. And I think I'm a little high on it because I'm lousy at predicting international numbers. I think I'm too high because I'm overpredicting the international numbers.

 

[Rhonimus]

Terminator 3 wasn't a hit...

lmao .. i meant trailer 3

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Box office mojo has predicted a 650 million worldwide total. I think it will do between 650-700

It's good. A solid restart of the franchise.

 

[manofsteel4life]

lmao .. i meant trailer 3

Lol that's what I thought you meant

 

[KalMart]

Too high.

Realistically I'm thinking $550-$600M worldwide is best case scenario. Anything past that is gravy.

That's what I opined as well.

 

[JayJustROTFL]

I cant see MOS beating Ironman 3 at the box office. Simply due to the fact Ironman 3 has 2 previous recent films of its own, a famous/popular actor as its lead and The Avengers to bounce off.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

I cant see MOS beating Ironman 3 at the box office. Simply due to the fact Ironman 3 has 2 previous recent films of its own, a famous/popular actor as its lead and The Avengers to bounce off.

Obviously. No way in hell MOS is beating IM3 at the Box Office.

Now, it's more up in the air in terms of which film will be of better quality however

 

[Fenrir]

Obviously. No way in hell MOS is beating IM3 at the Box Office.

If this film has great visuals and great action (which is almost a foregone conclusion at this point), it's going to make a killing at the international box office, probably even more so than Iron Man 3.

 

[mclay18]

Reading too much into that. He clearly wasn't being specific about what figure it needs to hit.

Okay, maybe the threshold is $600M worldwide?

 

[G.Godfrey]

This topic is going to be fun once the movie is out. Have a feeling there will be a lot of long noses around here with some of the serious underestimating of this movies potential (providing that it's everything the hype is building it up to be of course). I will stand by my new&final (high and optimistic ) prediction of:

$340 domestic (110 OW)
$420 foregin
for a total of $760 million WW.

Am also willing to make bets. Doesn't have to be cash. Can be anything, avatar of shame or whatever.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

This topic is going to be fun once the movie is out. Have a feeling there will be a lot of long noses around here with some of the serious underestimating of this movies potential (providing that it's everything the hype is building it up to be of course). I will stand by my new&final (high and optimistic ) prediction of:

$340 domestic (110 OW)
$420 foregin
for a total of $760 million WW.

Am also willing to make bets. Doesn't have to be cash. Can be anything, avatar of shame or whatever.

I think it will do between 700-750M (I'm trying to be more conservative). Also, I guess the dometsic numbers will be around 300M (maybe a bit less), but the OS numbers will be much better than the ones some are predicting,

 

[mohoo]

$800 million at least

 

[GreenKToo]

i'm sticking with my 635/650 mill ww total. that said I wouldnt be surprised at 600mill on the low side or 700 mill on the high. its damn hard to predict how the public will react.

 

[Rogzilla]

I cant see MOS beating Ironman 3 at the box office. Simply due to the fact Ironman 3 has 2 previous recent films of its own, a famous/popular actor as its lead and The Avengers to bounce off.

I think MOS has a shot of overcoming IM3 but only if a-people are feeling tired of IM (which, after three movies, they might be) and b-through more incentive for repeat viewings of MOS. I don't think IM3 will have as many because people can just go home and watch IM, IM2 and Avengers. Unless people are in the mood for Superman but not necessarily the MOS continuity, they won't have much choice but to buy tickets again.

 

[Liam_H]

People saying MOS is gonna beat IM3 are essentially saying it will make over a billion. I highly doubt that.

 

[souvlaki]

lmao .. i meant trailer 3

I was wracking my brain at first trying to figure out what T #3 was and all I could think of was Terminator 3. Then I spent the next few minutes trying to figure out why anyone would want this compared to said movie. Thank God I was wrong.

 

[kendalag]

This topic is going to be fun once the movie is out. Have a feeling there will be a lot of long noses around here with some of the serious underestimating of this movies potential (providing that it's everything the hype is building it up to be of course). I will stand by my new&final (high and optimistic ) prediction of:

$340 domestic (110 OW)
$420 foregin
for a total of $760 million WW.

Am also willing to make bets. Doesn't have to be cash. Can be anything, avatar of shame or whatever.

Underpredicting can lead to being happy and satisfied when it passes that figure.

If I feel this film is going to make 300+ in the US, I can't go below 600 total. (again, I'm over 700 ... pretty close to you, although maybe a slight bit less domestic) I just can't imagine a world in where this film does less than 300 overseas when Superman Returns did 200 million without 3D and before overseas markets had expanded to what they are now. Either way, I have to assume that WB is looking for Iron Man 1 numbers, not TA, TDK or Iron Man 3 #s.

But regardless, it's not sniffing Iron Man 3 due to that films expansion overseas due to The Avengers. That film has 350 MINIMUM in US and 700 Overseas for probably TDKR total of 1.05 to 1.1 billion.

Maybe Man of Steel 2 can get closer to those figures if it's a great film.