Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Bruce Malone]

I'm not saying it is i just noticed people being more apprehensive about that factor in this thread at least.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm not saying it is i just noticed people being more apprehensive about that factor in this thread at least.

It is because it is Marvel.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I also think because such a big debut would potentially put a lot of space between it and what MOS's potential ow will be.

 

[kendalag]

I think people trying to compare box office with Iron Man 3 are just looking for disappointment. Iron Man 3 has two individual movies & a 1.5 billion worldwide film setting it up. Man of Steel has nothing close to that.

Compare the two films to the summer of 2008 ... Iron Man 3 is 'The Dark Knight' of this year ... Man of Steel is the 'Iron Man'. That film will do it's closer to 400 million, maybe up to TDKR territory if it holds well vs Star Trek ... this film will do somewhere around 300-350 ... and several years from now ... Man of Steel 2 might be in a position to be a similar grosser to Iron Man 3.

I know The Avengers surprised and beat out TDKR last year, but that was somewhat of an anomaly that may never happen again. It was like a perfect storm which swooped up audiences in the grand scale of the battle and characters coming together.

 

[LordofhouseEl]

I think people trying to compare box office with Iron Man 3 are just looking for disappointment. Iron Man 3 has two individual movies & a 1.5 billion worldwide film setting it up. Man of Steel has nothing close to that.

Compare the two films to the summer of 2008 ... Iron Man 3 is 'The Dark Knight' of this year ... Man of Steel is the 'Iron Man'. That film will do it's closer to 400 million, maybe up to TDKR territory if it holds well vs Star Trek ... this film will do somewhere around 300-350, maybe a little more ... and several years from now ... Man of Steel 2 might be in a position to be a similar grosser.

I know The Avengers surprised and beat out TDKR last year, but that was somewhat of an anomaly that may never happen again. It was like a perfect storm.

Yep people are still hyped up from the Avengers, besides no serious competition for IM3 right now. I hope this film surprises and surpasses all expectations, hell if Skyfall can hit a billion then anything is possible.

 

[JOE]

About all that "Man of Steel will beat Iron Man 3" talk. I think we can put that to bed.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Last year I read people calling TDKR a "box office disappointment" because it did less than the Avengers. So I'm ready to read all kind of stupidities even this time.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Curious, is anyone expecting IronMan 3 to out do TDK or TDKR in opening weekend or total?

It is possible, but for right now I say

Spoiler

I say it'll make about the same Spider-Man 3 did OW.

I think people trying to compare box office with Iron Man 3 are just looking for disappointment. Iron Man 3 has two individual movies & a 1.5 billion worldwide film setting it up. Man of Steel has nothing close to that.

Compare the two films to the summer of 2008 ... Iron Man 3 is 'The Dark Knight' of this year ... Man of Steel is the 'Iron Man'. That film will do it's closer to 400 million, maybe up to TDKR territory if it holds well vs Star Trek ... this film will do somewhere around 300-350 ... and several years from now ... Man of Steel 2 might be in a position to be a similar grosser to Iron Man 3.

I know The Avengers surprised and beat out TDKR last year, but that was somewhat of an anomaly that may never happen again. It was like a perfect storm which swooped up audiences in the grand scale of the battle and characters coming together.

You're so on the money with this.

 

[Marvin]

3D is a hell of a drug.
It's quite the variable when applied to the bigger films.

 

[psylockolussus]

I know The Avengers surprised and beat out TDKR last year, but that was somewhat of an anomaly that may never happen again. It was like a perfect storm which swooped up audiences in the grand scale of the battle and characters coming together.

That wasn't a surprise to me. I knew The Avengers was gonna sell more than TDKR.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Ha on the Iron Man 3 boards a lot of people seem to think it will have a bigger OW than TDKR, quite a difference of opinion over there from over here.

A pretty safe prediction.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I've had IM3 at 155mil for a while now so I didn't think 160+ was out of the question. I'll be shocked if it does under 150mil because of the Avengers and 3D tickets. I'm thinking 170mil now.

 

[kendalag]

I've had IM3 at 155mil for a while now so I didn't think 160+ was out of the question. I'll be shocked if it does under 150mil because of the Avengers and 3D tickets. I'm thinking 170mil now.

I think 170 is a solid prediction given that it has 3D. I wouldn't be surprised if it was around the same # as HP8. However, my final prediction will still be 160 ... or about same as TDKR.

I'm going to see the 9pm showing on Thursday and can't wait.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think 170 is a solid prediction given that it has 3D. I wouldn't be surprised if it was around the same # as HP8. However, my final prediction will still be 160 ... or about same as TDKR.

I'm going to see the 9pm showing on Thursday and can't wait.

Unless something comes up I can't imagine my sis and I not seeing it Thursday night. She works odd hours and we love going to the movies together so we go on Thursday half the time.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I kind of want to do the marathon. I would love to see the first Iron Man and Avengers on the big screen again.

 

[Mysteryman]

I have a friend who is going to see a screening here in Los Angeles on Wednesday .
She is not a comic book geek but big RDJ fan and she loved IM1.
I am not going to ask her for spoilers ,I just want her general impressions .
I will let you all know what she says.

 

[Skrilla31]

About all that "Man of Steel will beat Iron Man 3" talk. I think we can put that to bed.

I'm sorry, but I'm just not ready to throw in the towel. If I'm wrong so be it. I guess only time will tell.

Call me crazy but I just have this gut feeling that MOS is going to dominate this summer. There's a reason After Earth was moved up. The studios know this thing is going to be a colossal hit.

 

[Rhonimus]

FWIW @ Yahoo's 25 most anticipated movies for 2013, the poll started 2 days ago & with 151 700 votes in, MOS is leading with 27% of the votes, up from 26% yesterday with IM3 in 2nd place with 23% .. most active poll i've seen so far .. worth a mention ?

 

[combocaz]

The only thing i care about for MOS is it does well enough to warrant itself a sequel and to open the door for other DC heroes in its universe to start movies of their own. Otherwise we will be stuck with more batman movies.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Those polls do not mean anything. They are in no way scientific.

I'm not saying the movie isn't going to be a hit or even make more than my prediction, I'm just saying that internet polls don't mean anything one way or the other.

 

[dark_b]

3D is a hell of a drug.
It's quite the variable when applied to the bigger films.

its a bad drug. in 2009 and 2010 i was the biggest native 3D fan you could find. in 2013 i think all 3D movies were post converted.

IM3 3D was disgusting. it was so bad that someone had to be drunk while rotoscoping.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I will never see another film in 3D unless I am absolutely desperate and that is litterally the only way that I could see an anticipated film. I hate 3D with a red hot passion.

I love color, sound and I'm fine with well shot digital and I dig CGI.

Contrary to popular belief people who hate 3D are not opposed to new tech. I'm opposed to 3D because it always distracts me from the film and I haven't seen it add one thing. Sound and color add something to cinema and digital can look as good as film now and is cheaper than film so it aids the artists. 3D is nothing more than a funhouse gimmick used to raise ticket prices.

Others will no doubt disagree with my assessment and I can respect that. I say **** 3D and I will be seeing IM3, Star Trek 2 and MOS in the non gimmicky format.

Rant Over.

 

[Rhonimus]

Those polls do not mean anything. They are in no way scientific.

I'm not saying the movie isn't going to be a hit or even make more than my prediction, I'm just saying that internet polls don't mean anything one way or the other.

i'm not suggesting that the poll means MOS will outsell IM3 .. not at all .. in fact i doubt it .. i'm merely speculating that MOS might be more anticipated among the GA than we give it credit for .. anyway, as have been said, time will tell ..

 

[G.Godfrey]

I see a rather silly belief trend around these parts that nothing means anything. Polls, twitter trending, youtube views, nothing seems to means anything.

Newsflash: It does.

Now I'm not saying that it means a whole lot but there is a reason why studios spend money on gauging online reactions and receptions and in some cases even hire people to stir the hype.

When you have a poll on a big site and over 150.000 (mostly non fanboys) people vote, that means that for those 40.000 some people who voted for it, Man of Steel is the most anticipated movie of the summer. Does that mean it will outgross IM3 or even STID (it might do that in case of the latter ) ? No. But it does mean that there is a high interested and awareness among the movie going crowd who also happens to regularly surf the net. MOS is winning most polls these days btw

And yes, I would be saying this even if MOS was the last in the poll. This isn't 2003 anymore or even 2006. Internet and social media sites have become an important factor in spreading WOM, hype, gauging interest etc.

There are exceptions of course (as with anything in life) , but for the most part big flops of the past years (Green Lantern, John Carter, Dredd etc..) didn't have 30+ million trailer views on YT, didn't lead any online polls where tens of thousands voted and didn't trend on twitter with over 50.000 tweets in a day. And likewise the biggest movies didn't just go under the radar with nobody taking note. I could post statistics for the biggest success and the biggest flops of the past 3 years to prove this point but frankly, it's a waste of time. I believe Man of Steel's success (which is also reliant on how WB handles the final marketing push - TV spots need to bring it) will speak for itself.

So yes, it means something and no matter how little it may be, it is not to be underestimated.

And After Earth will flop, hard.

 

[DKDetective]

Precisely, just because something is not determinative, it does not mean that it is not indicative or without value as information. It is about putting all the pieces (twitter trends, youtube views, past performance of similar films, etc.) together like a puzzle, acknowledging the information's flaws, and drawing reasonable conclusions based on all of the circumstances. You don't just throw out a piece of information because it has flaws or is somewhat inaccurate, you just use those considerations to determine what weight to give it when you throw in the martini shaker with everything else.