Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[KangConquers]

A problem with predicting MoS is, unlike Iron Man 3, you have to really think about what came out the week before and what comes out the week after. If anything around MoS is a huge hit, it will hurt the film. If things start flopping though, it will help it tremendously.


My worldwide total prediction is anywhere from $500 M-850 M. You can never really predict these things till you get closer. Who knows, if it has a 95% Tomato Meter (Which I kind of doubt, given it's a Zack Snyder film and he's incredibly divisive) or an A+ cinescore (More likely than the 95% Tomato Meter to be honest) then maybe a billion is possible.

 

[Tobias]

Superman Returns had a lot more advertisements one month before it's release as compared to MOS, here in Asia.

Man of Steel is not being promoted as much here, I don't know why, maybe they want to cut down on overseas advertisement costs. lol.

A Superman movie usually makes 60:40 (Domesticverseas) ratio of it's world wide total.

That means if MOS makes 360 mil. in Domestic market, it will make about 240 mil. overseas, thus adding upto 600 mil worldwide.

Most people expect (on these SHH boards who are not Superman fans.) this movie to make about 600 mil and get a RT rating about 70 %.

Will that be good enough when THOR 2 makes as much and IM 3 makes about 1 bil ?

What if both IM 3 and Thor 2 get higher Tomatometer scores as compared to Man of steel.

True the non-Superman fans are predicting a much smaller BO. In the range of 500 - 600 million WW.

I have to believe MOS does better than 240 OS. That would be a disaster. I think the SR domestic/OS ration was 55/45. Hard to see MOS not matching that but the film is apparently not being promoted much OS for whatever reason. I've heard as you note that SR got more OS's promotion than MOS. Go figure. Is WB as hyped on this film as their public persona suggests?

Thor2 could be the big summer surprise. No competition - it's released in November. The USA Today movie roundtable talked about this. One of the folks is high on Thor2 doing very well but another said don't count MOS out (Thor2 vs MOS). I think they will end up about even with each other.

If Rotten Tomatoes is just 70 for MOS that would be a huge disappointment. It would indicate just so/so WOM which would not be good.

If Thor2 matches MOS at the box and does better at Rotten Tomatoes it would be good enough presuming MOS gets a 600 WW box. I think hitting 600 is the key for WB that triggers a sequel or a JL film.

 

[KangConquers]

Superman Returns had a lot more advertisements one month before it's release as compared to MOS, here in Asia.

Man of Steel is not being promoted as much here, I don't know why, maybe they want to cut down on overseas advertisement costs. lol.

A Superman movie usually makes 60:40 (Domesticverseas) ratio of it's world wide total.

That means if MOS makes 360 mil. in Domestic market, it will make about 240 mil. overseas, thus adding upto 600 mil worldwide.

Most people expect (on these SHH boards who are not Superman fans.) this movie to make about 600 mil and get a RT rating about 70 %.

Will that be good enough when THOR 2 makes as much and IM 3 makes about 1 bil ?

What if both IM 3 and Thor 2 get higher Tomatometer scores as compared to Man of steel.

Iron Man 3 will make far more than $1 B as it hits $1 B tomorrow. A lot of these ideas are based on older box office paradigms. There's no way Man of Steel has more than 40% of it's box office in the United States.

This isn't 1977 or even 2006, this is 2013, and with rare exceptions, 35/65 domestic/ foreign is kind of the law. If Man of Steel hits $360 M domestic, it's foreign gross will likely be in excess of $500 M.

True the non-Superman fans are predicting a much smaller BO. In the range of 500 - 600 million WW.

I have to believe MOS does better than 240 OS. That would be a disaster. I think the SR domestic/OS ration was 55/45. Hard to see MOS not matching that but the film is apparently not being promoted much OS for whatever reason. I've heard as you note that SR got more OS's promotion than MOS. Go figure. Is WB as hyped on this film as their public persona suggests?

Thor2 could be the big summer surprise. No competition - it's released in November. The USA Today movie roundtable talked about this. One of the folks is high on Thor2 doing very well but another said don't count MOS out (Thor2 vs MOS). I think they will end up about even with each other.

If Rotten Tomatoes is just 70 for MOS that would be a huge disappointment. It would indicate just so/so WOM which would not be good.

If Thor2 matches MOS at the box and does better at Rotten Tomatoes it would be good enough presuming MOS gets a 600 WW box. I think hitting 600 is the key for WB that triggers a sequel or a JL film.

Good read on things. And yes, $600 M is probably the minimum for a sequel.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Don't loose too much time in speculations. This movie will do a ton of money.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

This isn't 1977 or even 2006, this is 2013, and with rare exceptions, 35/65 domestic/ foreign is kind of the law. If Man of Steel hits $360 M domestic, it's foreign gross will likely be in excess of $500 M.

Basically this.

Don't loose too much time in speculations. This movie will do a ton of money.

And this.

 

[sf2]

never expect IM3 does 1B in just 3 weeks time. wow.

 

[Marvin]

never expect IM3 does 1B in just 3 weeks time. wow.

Being sold as the sequel avengers, super big balls to the wall marketing, practically no competition before or after...I actually expected a very fast climb. I just didn't expect legs.

 

[redp]

Iron Man 3 will make far more than $1 B as it hits $1 B tomorrow. A lot of these ideas are based on older box office paradigms. There's no way Man of Steel has more than 40% of it's box office in the United States.

This isn't 1977 or even 2006, this is 2013, and with rare exceptions, 35/65 domestic/ foreign is kind of the law. If Man of Steel hits $360 M domestic, it's foreign gross will likely be in excess of $500 M.



Good read on things. And yes, $600 M is probably the minimum for a sequel.

I doubt that you can call this a law, especially when considering films that gross above $350M because they are per se exceptions. The evidence, however, clearly suggests that films which do well in North America(for 300+), do rather well overseas.

 

[sf2]

Being sold as the sequel avengers, super big balls to the wall marketing, practically no competition before or after...I actually expected a very fast climb. I just didn't expect legs.

and it's in April, early May!!! not July!!!

 

[JayJustROTFL]

never expect IM3 does 1B in just 3 weeks time. wow.

Being sold as the sequel avengers, super big balls to the wall marketing, practically no competition before or after...I actually expected a very fast climb.

When it first came out it kept getting all these glowing reviews as well. The marketing and hype/buzz surrounding Ironman was very strong indeed.

 

[KangConquers]

I doubt that you can call this a law, especially when considering films that gross above $350M because they are per se exceptions. The evidence, however, clearly suggests that films which do well in North America(for 300+), do rather well overseas.

Well, not a law, but it's pretty rare for a movie that grosses say, $200 M domestic to not do $300 M foreign. Even John Carter which was a huge bomb in the United States did over $200 M foreign. The idea of Superman doing a 60/40 ratio favoring the U.S. is slim to none.


The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Avengers, and Iron Man 3 have all proven that superhero movies have finally caught on abroad. I see no reason to believe that Superman won't perform similarly. Maybe 35/65 is a little intense, but I can't imagine a ratio lower than 40/60. Something like $250 M/ $400 M to $300 M/ $450 M sounds completely accurate.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Avengers, and Iron Man 3 have all proven that superhero movies have finally caught on abroad. I see no reason to believe that Superman won't perform similarly. Maybe 35/65 is a little intense, but I can't imagine a ratio lower than 40/60. Something like $250 M/ $400 M to $300 M/ $450 M sounds completely accurate.

Those were all sequels or franchise continuations that built upon the success of the last films in that series. Unless you want to count superman returns there that's something MOS won't have.

 

[KangConquers]

Those were all sequels or franchise continuations that built upon the success of the last films in that series. Unless you want to count superman returns there that's something MOS won't have.

Amazing Spider-Man was a reboot.

Truth be told, the only big blockbuster in the past few years to have a weak foreign performance was The Hunger Games, and I chalk that up to Lionsgate not having a particularly long arm in foreign markets. A Warner Bros film won't face that problem.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yes but it was still part of the spider-man series. Spider-man 3 was really the film that blew open that characters popularity over-seas. It made a lot more money over-seas than the 1st two films despite its drop domestically. Something that's continued onto TASM.

 

[tek]

MOS will go close to a billion. It has too much going for it .

 

[db85usa]

MoS really does need families to see this in droves. With school being out, this movie has all the elements for the summer blockbuster of the year which could result into a large OW. I've been seeing $90 Million is the lowball on this one and expectations are in the $100-$110 Million. Me thinks WB and Co. are just aiming low but when Sunday June 16 arrives, it would be great to see a slam dunk figure of $185 million.

Can that happen? Who knows? If TDK can gross $160 Mil in an OW, Avengers $207 Million, Iron Man $175, etc, who's to say MoS won't come close? IMO, this is the movie that SHOULD have happened in 2006 and WB wants to ultimately redeem themselves of that massive failure. I think MoS will smash some records. Before the 3rd trailer and all the TV spots that have been released, I felt MoS would pull Iron Man 1 & 2 figures at least $90-$110 Million but now I'm confident it will eclipse Toy Story 3's June OW record by at least $25-$30 million if not more.

It's not impossible, it will need some help from families, kids, a younger audience is what will make it happen. I've been saying something feels different about Superman this time like this is it it's all or nothing and everyone is going to see it once or twice, even three times or more. I've got a strong feeling that this is the definitive Superman movie people have been waiting for an entire generation and I can't believe we're less than a month away from this beast of a movie!

 

[db85usa]

Those were all sequels or franchise continuations that built upon the success of the last films in that series. Unless you want to count superman returns there that's something MOS won't have.

And I think that's a GOOD thing for Superman. We need to see him like we've never seen him before and that is the message Snyder, Nolan, Goyer, etc are aiming for with Man of Steel.

 

[Tobias]

Well, not a law, but it's pretty rare for a movie that grosses say, $200 M domestic to not do $300 M foreign. Even John Carter which was a huge bomb in the United States did over $200 M foreign. The idea of Superman doing a 60/40 ratio favoring the U.S. is slim to none.


The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Avengers, and Iron Man 3 have all proven that superhero movies have finally caught on abroad. I see no reason to believe that Superman won't perform similarly. Maybe 35/65 is a little intense, but I can't imagine a ratio lower than 40/60. Something like $250 M/ $400 M to $300 M/ $450 M sounds completely accurate.

John Carter was heavily promoted OS. MOS is not being strongly promoted OS for whatever reason. That will hold the OS box down and if indeed 35/65 is the ratio now, w/o promotion and given the relative lack of popularity of the character OS I think MOS's ratio will be closer to 50/50 though I think it will do slightly better OS. Maybe 45/55.

 

[LordofhouseEl]

never expect IM3 does 1B in just 3 weeks time. wow.

Very undeserved as that movie wasn't anything special.

 

[Mysteryman]

MOS will go close to a billion. It has too much going for it .

6-750 million tops.

 

[db85usa]

Very undeserved as that movie wasn't anything special.

I agree. It had the success of The Avengers backing it obviously but it is quickly declining in the box office. That's kind of expected with a huge OW. It's already behind what The Dark Knight Rises had received at this point.

 

[Iceman]

Very undeserved as that movie wasn't anything special.

It earned it during Avengers. Was kind of guaranteed some big numbers, maybe not quite as big as this though.

 

[DorneyDave]

I'm not sure how much it is going to make, but being surrounded by Monsters and Brad Pitt won't help.

 

[db85usa]

I'm not sure how much it is going to make, but being surrounded by Monsters and Brad Pitt won't help.

I don't think World War Z will be a big factor. Monsters will eat a chunk off of MoS 2nd weekend and could take the top spot but that'll be tough to know for sure as the first Monsters movie was a long, long time ago. I'm not sure it can pull a Toy Story 3, maybe. This is The End, now that'll be interesting to see what it does next to MoS it could make a $40-$45+ Million dent.

*Edit* just saw This is The End is opening on a Wednesday so I doubt it will pull in that much for its OW.

 

[kendalag]

I don't think World War Z will be a big factor. Monsters will eat a chunk off of MoS 2nd weekend and could take the top spot but that'll be tough to know for sure as the first Monsters movie was a long, long time ago. I'm not sure it can pull a Toy Story 3, maybe. This is The End, now that'll be interesting to see what it does next to MoS it could make a $40-$45+ Million dent.

Monsters will be a big match up for it, but it's definitely more family viewing than Man of Steel (although the goal will be to get some of those family viewers) ... World War Z seems like a lost cause at this point.

In regards for This Is The End ... it moved the release date to 6/12 so will burn off a little business before Man of Steel shows up on 14th, early tracking for that film is 40 million over the 5 day ... but it's still early.

BTW, Man of Steel still tracking at 125 ... honestly, if it gets over 100 I'll be very happy. Anything more will be a bonus.