Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

Exactly!

Haha, I thought you were saying no way in hell it gets to a billion. Well you better practise your running and better practise getting naked in LA.

 

[Dark Knight]

No chance in hell it drops 60%. Your going to get proven wrong in all of your predictions.

If word of mouth about how good the movie turns out true than people will still flock to see it up until the weekend of July 4th even.

 

[Simo]

Not sure if it was posted but the new Entertainment Weekly has a big article on the summer blockbusters and which will be the top 10 based on domestic earnings. They ranked Iron Man 3 as No. 1 with $400 million domestically and No. 2...Man of Steel with $325 million.

 

[redp]

I finally got a chance to write out my analysis of Man of Steel along with predictions for its worldwide gross. I kept on hoping that there should be a possibility that it can gross more than $1 billion dollars but the numbers just say something else. You can check it out here,
http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2013/05/man-of-steel-box-office-forecast-and.html

If word of mouth and critical reception is great, then chances are higher.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

I finally got a chance to write out my analysis of Man of Steel along with predictions for its worldwide gross. I kept on hoping that there should be a possibility that it can gross more than $1 billion dollars but the numbers just say something else. You can check it out here,
http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2013/05/man-of-steel-box-office-forecast-and.html

If word of mouth and critical reception is great, then chances are higher.

Nice analysis. I'd be pretty happy with the predicted numbers.

 

[Iceman]

I finally got a chance to write out my analysis of Man of Steel along with predictions for its worldwide gross. I kept on hoping that there should be a possibility that it can gross more than $1 billion dollars but the numbers just say something else. You can check it out here,
http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2013/05/man-of-steel-box-office-forecast-and.html

If word of mouth and critical reception is great, then chances are higher.

Interesting stuff. I hope for more overseas in particular but enjoyed the article.

 

[redp]

Interesting stuff. I hope for more overseas in particular but enjoyed the article.

Thanks. The reason the overseas number is a bit low is that there is barely any evidence that suggests a reboot can gross more than $450 million internationally.(It took Iron Man several installments until it reached its status, same goes for Batman and Transformers) Trailers can often mislead viewers. But, the posters, the score, and the scenes from the trailers build a fantastic movie. The element that I really like the most is the bright and blurred glare from the banners and the trailers. It really shows Superman's capacity to reach for the sun--boundless.

 

[Iceman]

Thanks. The reason the overseas number is a bit low is that there is barely any evidence that suggests a reboot can gross more than $450 million internationally.(It took Iron Man several installments until it reached its status, same goes for Batman and Transformers) Trailers can often mislead viewers. But, the posters, the score, and the scenes from the trailers build a fantastic movie. The element that I really like the most is the bright and blurred glare from the banners and the trailers. It really shows Superman's capacity to reach for the sun--boundless.

It's a good point. Overseas has exploded but especially for sequels. It takes a bit of time for a series to get going there.

 

[Rhonimus]

nice article .. anything above 700m would be gravy

 

[Dr.]

I finally got a chance to write out my analysis of Man of Steel along with predictions for its worldwide gross. I kept on hoping that there should be a possibility that it can gross more than $1 billion dollars but the numbers just say something else. You can check it out here,
http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2013/05/man-of-steel-box-office-forecast-and.html

If word of mouth and critical reception is great, then chances are higher.

Nice.

You mention that SR’s middling BO and reputation “lowers any high expectations” for MOS. And there’s a sense that this is likely true. E.g., Batman & Robin’s “baggage” seems to have affected Batman Begins. That said, BB did make a fair bit more than B&R (even accounting for inflation). So your MOS prediction might have included the particulars of SR’s BO. That is, its take was $200M (domestic) - which is $242M in 2013 bucks. I would suggest that this figure is the “floor” for MOS. And from there, one can make an educated guess as to how much above the floor the final tally will be.

Bottom line, though, I do like your #s.

 

[redp]

Nice.

You mention that SR’s middling BO and reputation “lowers any high expectations” for MOS. And there’s a sense that this is likely true. E.g., Batman & Robin’s “baggage” seems to have affected Batman Begins. That said, BB did make a fair bit more than B&R (even accounting for inflation). So your MOS prediction might have included the particulars of SR’s BO. That is, its take was $200M (domestic) - which is $242M in 2013 bucks. I would suggest that this figure is the “floor” for MOS. And from there, one can make an educated guess as to how much above the floor the final tally will be.

Bottom line, though, I do like your #s.

My initial numbers for its domestic cume were at $265 million(counting SR's numbers and other reboot factors), but I recently changed it to $315 million due to the online hype.(specifically from the speed at which the final trailer view counts increased

 

[DKDetective]

My initial numbers for its domestic cume were at $265 million(counting SR's numbers and other reboot factors), but I recently changed it to $315 million due to the online hype.(specifically from the speed at which the final trailer view counts increased

I have to agree with Dr. I think your comparative analysis of MoS's box office potential is overly simplistic. You seem to not really take into account or discuss the circumstances of prior reboots like Batman Begins and The Amazing Spider-Man and what makes them different. On one hand, Begins was arguably the first major Hollywood reboot and its box office probably suffered because a lot of the GA didn't realize what it was and assumed it was a prequel to the Burton/Schumacher films. On the other hand, while audiences were familiar with the idea of a reboot when TASM came along, it suffered from the problem of coming too soon after Raimi's successful trilogy. Many people thought the film was a rehash of Spider-Man 1 and that probably hurt its word of mouth.

As a point of constructive criticism ,if you want to attract people around here to read your blog, you should probably try to offer people something new that they haven't heard before. Your article simply rehashes the same basic arguments that populate this thread and offers a rather simplistic recounting of Superman's box office history. The analysis displays no special knowledge or expertise on the surface. It may be going on in your head and be how you came up with your numbers, but there isn't too much going on on the page itself. That may be enough for a more general audience though. It depends on what sort of readers you are trying to attract.

 

[redp]

I have to agree with Dr. I think your comparative analysis of MoS's box office potential is overly simplistic. You seem to not really take into account or discuss the circumstances of prior reboots like Batman Begins and The Amazing Spider-Man and what makes them different. On one hand, Begins was arguably the first major Hollywood reboot and its box office probably suffered because a lot of the GA didn't realize what it was and assumed it was a prequel to the Burton/Schumacher films. On the other hand, while audiences were familiar with the idea of a reboot when TASM came along, it suffered from the problem of coming too soon after Raimi's successful trilogy. Many people thought the film was a rehash of Spider-Man 1 and that probably hurt its word of mouth.

As a point of constructive criticism ,if you want to attract people around here to read your blog, you should probably try to offer people something new that they haven't heard before. Your article simply rehashes the same basic arguments that populate this thread and offers a rather simplistic recounting of Superman's box office history. The analysis displays no special knowledge or expertise on the surface. It may be going on in your head and be how you came up with your numbers, but there isn't too much going on on the page itself. That may be enough for a more general audience though. It depends on what sort of readers you are trying to attract.

If I am going to include every single detail then the article would be endless.(**The note about reboots is to try to show that sometimes reboots don't perform very well in comparison to the original) My objective is not to attract people, its to share my thoughts and hear other peoples comments. Since you say that my "analysis displays no special knowledge or expertise on the surface," I would really like to hear your analysis. The numbers that I get are from calculation in comparison to previous films. There is also a weighting related to a probability distribution for each factor. On Excel, the numbers are averaged and I place the numbers and skip the calculations.(I doubt anybody wants to know how the numbers are made and I don't think I am giving a math course over here.) I am sorry if I repeated any information, that was not my intention.(I haven't had the chance to read through the whole forum)

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

If I am going to include every single detail then the article would be endless.(**The note about reboots is to try to show that sometimes reboots don't perform very well in comparison to the original) My objective is not to attract people, its to share my thoughts and hear other peoples comments. Since you say that my "analysis displays no special knowledge or expertise on the surface," I would really like to hear your analysis. The numbers that I get are from calculation in comparison to previous films. There is also a weighting related to a probability distribution for each factor. On Excel, the numbers are averaged and I place the numbers and skip the calculations.(I doubt anybody wants to know how the numbers are made and I don't think I am giving a math course over here.) I am sorry if I repeated any information, that was not my intention.(I haven't had the chance to read through the whole forum)

If it's not asking too much, I'd like some details about how you did it.
You can send me a pm.

 

[Skrilla31]

I'm sorry the more I think about it, the more I think this thing is gonna f'n SMASH. I think I'm done being humble. Feel free to bump this and laugh at me if I turn out to be a wrong but I'm just gonna go ahead and say this thing is grossing a billion.

The trailers and the tv spots have just been too good. Anyone out there with an inkling of knowledge towards Superman is intrigued now and that's a huge audience. I just have this feeling no one is expecting just how great this movie is going to be and just how well it's going to be received. No other superhero movie has as positive or inspiring a message as Man Of Steel and I just have this feeling a lot of people are gonna gravitate to it. And then they're just gonna be FLOORED by the action. Once people see it and tell everyone else they need to as well, people are going flock in droves.

Mark my words. A bil.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

I'm sorry the more I think about it, the more I think this thing is gonna f'n SMASH. I think I'm done being humble. Feel free to bump this and laugh at me if I turn out to be a wrong but I'm just gonna go ahead and say this thing is grossing a billion.

The trailers and the tv spots have just been too good. Anyone out there with an inkling of knowledge towards Superman is intrigued now and that's a huge audience. I just have this feeling no one is expecting just how great this movie is going to be and just how well it's going to be received. No other superhero movie has as positive or inspiring a message as Man Of Steel and I just have this feeling a lot of people are gonna gravitate to it. And then they're just gonna be FLOORED by the action. Once people see it and tell everyone else they need to as well, people are going flock in droves.

Mark my words. A bil.

I saw a long time ago with this movie. Its going touch people in ways Marvel just can't do with their formulaic popcorn movies that don't hold up on repeat viewings.

The trailers have this epic feel and blew away anything IM3 put out.

Wom is going to carry this movie to huge numbers.

 

[sf2]

I saw a long time ago with this movie. Its going touch people in ways Marvel just can't do with their formulaic popcorn movies that don't hold up on repeat viewings.

The trailers have this epic feel and blew away anything IM3 put out.

Wom is going to carry this movie to huge numbers.

our opinion is biased. because we are DC fans; and superman fans in particular.
The general public may just take it as a rehash of Superman I & II combined.
The WOM for MOS may be good. But it’s impossible for MOS to make more than IM3.

 

[combocaz]

Im gonna say that its gonna make 1billion easy.

 

[sf2]

is inflation really that bad?

 

[GreenKToo]

A billion is not impossible, but highly unlikely. its still a reboot after all.
I think its ceiling could be 700 mill, but the actual numbers will be closer to 635 mill.

 

[Kryptonian Warrior]

I'm just curious as to how strong the "legs" are going to be? I'm thinking that if it does indeed have strong "legs", then it will be in the theater for 2 months. What do you guys think?

 

[Iceman]

A billion is not impossible, but highly unlikely. its still a reboot after all.
I think its ceiling could be 700 mill, but the actual numbers will be closer to 635 mill.

Without SR coming ahead of it I'd expect a billion. Superman is a Batman / Spider-man level character and when made properly as MoS looks to be, there's no reason why it can't make those numbers. But even those characters didn't make as much as usual with their reboots.

 

[GreenKToo]

The sequel. ( WF, or MOS 2) Thats where you'll get your billion. Provided THIS is the film we all hope it is..

 

[Iceman]

If this turns out as good as it looks MoS 2 will crush all in its path!

 

[Tobias]

I finally got a chance to write out my analysis of Man of Steel along with predictions for its worldwide gross. I kept on hoping that there should be a possibility that it can gross more than $1 billion dollars but the numbers just say something else. You can check it out here,
http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2013/05/man-of-steel-box-office-forecast-and.html

If word of mouth and critical reception is great, then chances are higher.

Interesting. I think your original 265 million domestic is close to how it turns out.

WOM is key but I notice on Screen Rant MOS isn't even listed in the Hot Topics listed across the top of the page. Of course internet "polls" aren't really too accurate.

Trailer clicks are an indicator but only that. The trailers have been great. But SR had a huge hit on it's trailers too. Hard to say.