Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[DarthSkywalker]

i disagree i know many people didn't even know it came out on wed hell i thought it came out today lol

Its Friday tracking numbers are not promising, nor is the huge amount of competition right around the corner.

 

[Mysteryman]

Paramount was Marketing STID as coming out on May 17th for MONTHS .
Then they decided to release it a day earlier at virtually the last minute .
That was NEVER going to work.
I agree about tempering expectations for MOS But, I think that is a good strategy when it comes to ANY movie you are really looking forward to.
OW is important but I think the real test for MOS and STID will be WOM.

 

[ALP]

I'm going to be a little conservative here and say that MOS will make about 600 Million WW.

 

[Skrilla31]

"Star Trek Into Darkness" numbers aren't looking great. Shame, I liked it a lot. And while it is early, I think all the talk of a massive jump was off and really always did.. I know fanboy properties get an extra boost on the net, but it is looking so far off what some were thinking.The crazy whispers of a billion.

I will say it now. Temper your expectations for MoS in terms of box office. Especially with the "Monsters Inc." sequel coming the next week.

Just got back from Trek. Yea, wow. It was really f'n good. Hope it makes a ton.

It's not about tempering expectations for me with MOS. With all due respect, Star Trek isn't Superman. The superhero genre is the most successful genre and Superman is the most well known superhero, the FATHER of all superheros. Star Trek is a household brand but the name Star Trek doesn't mean as much as Superman. Now if most people find MOS average or less than average... then sure it's probably not gonna do we what we think it's gonna do. Even if the movie is lucky enough to be called "good", it probably won't do what some of us think it can do.

But if the movie is REALLY good? Like... REALLY, REALLY good? As good as these trailers are making it out to be? Forget it. This thing is gonna be a problem. I saw the trailers before Trek. Everything is depressing. Every other movie is an end of the world scenario or some not too distant dysutopian future. And then there's Superman. A movie with a positive and inspiring message about hope and about faith, personified by the most Christ-like superhero there is and who in all likelihood is the most known fictional character created in all of American mythology. If this movie turns out to be amazing - which we all hope - then trust me this movie is going destroy. It doesn't matter what's released the week after. This is going to be the summer of Superman.

 

[ALP]

I think you guys may be overestimating things.

People were also calling for mega numbers for Superman Returns as well. First Class was really good and look how that turned out. Begins too. Yeah, Begins and First Class followed poor films but MoS is also following a disappointing Superman film. On second thought, does anyone in the GA even remember SR? And SR had all the hoopla and stuff you are talking about... Christ-like persona, laurels of being the most famous American fictional character, etc. Didn't help it a lick.

At any rate, I highly doubt MoS will get anywhere near a billion, even if it's incredibly good. You've got to earn the audience's trust... unless you're James Cameron. Then again, just being James Cameron is enough for the audience to make a film gross billions.

 

[Lily Adler]

Easy, just add Jimmy Cameron the intern to the credits. Surely that'll add some major credence for a billion dollar gross.

 

[Project862006]

I think you guys may be overestimating things.

People were also calling for mega numbers for Superman Returns as well. First Class was really good and look how that turned out. Begins too. Yeah, Begins and First Class followed poor films but MoS is also following a disappointing Superman film. On second thought, does anyone in the GA even remember SR? And SR had all the hoopla and stuff you are talking about... Christ-like persona, laurels of being the most famous American fictional character, etc. Didn't help it a lick.

At any rate, I highly doubt MoS will get anywhere near a billion, even if it's incredibly good. You've got to earn the audience's trust... unless you're James Cameron. Then again, just being James Cameron is enough for the audience to make a film gross billions.

MOS has far more hype the trailers alone has hyped up non superman fans not to mention nolan's name attached to it after tdk trilogy and inception this film just has the special element of that summer movie to see this year

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

But if the movie is REALLY good? Like... REALLY, REALLY good? As good as these trailers are making it out to be? Forget it. This thing is gonna be a problem. I saw the trailers before Trek. Everything is depressing. Every other movie is an end of the world scenario or some not too distant dysutopian future. And then there's Superman. A movie with a positive and inspiring message about hope and about faith, personified by the most Christ-like superhero there is and who in all likelihood is the most known fictional character created in all of American mythology. If this movie turns out to be amazing - which we all hope - then trust me this movie is going destroy. It doesn't matter what's released the week after. This is going to be the summer of Superman.

Couldn't agree more. I feel like that actually might be the trump card for MOS - its sense of optimism and faith in humanity, which really comes through even in the trailers ("They will stumble, they will fall behind, but someday they will join you in the sun").

Generally speaking, Star Trek is also characterized by those same qualities - but not so much in the specific case of Into Darkness. The (from what I can tell) death-filled story of a space terrorist does not strike me as the most uplifting fare.

David Goyer might just be right that this is the movie the world needs right now. And I'm really glad I can feel confident in making these assertions now, because early on in the production, my main worry was that they were going to try to make Superman "dark" and mimic Nolan's Batman trilogy.

But on the contrary, everything I've seen so far indicates that although they take the character seriously, they also understand that optimism and hope is what Superman is all about. Given all the bad news we hear about every day, that's something a lot of people may be craving right now.

 

[Skrilla31]

People were also calling for mega numbers for Superman Returns as well. First Class was really good and look how that turned out. Begins too. Yeah, Begins and First Class followed poor films but MoS is also following a disappointing Superman film. On second thought, does anyone in the GA even remember SR? And SR had all the hoopla and stuff you are talking about... Christ-like persona, laurels of being the most famous American fictional character, etc. Didn't help it a lick..

You're absolutely right, but that's also because everyone saw that SR didn't offer anything new. It looked cheesy. Superman himself looked cheesy. The costume looked cheesy. The trailer was cheesy (bullet in the eye?). Kevin Spacey's Lex looked cheesy. It even had the old 70's score. Everyone knew what they were gonna get before they even headed into the theater. An old fashioned, campy, Saturday morning cartoon style Superman riding the coattails of a 30 year old movie.... and all this in the midst of superhero genre that was changing and evolving right before everyone's eyes. And yet despite all that... the movie STILL made a decent amount of money despite the fact that word of mouth was horrible. Why? Because it's Superman.

This time it's different. People didn't know what to expect with Begins because it was such a drastically different approach to the genre, and while the superhero genre was definitely in full gear... the only superhero with a colossal hit was Spiderman. But that was then and this is now. As crazy as it sounds, the genre is even MORE popular now. The bar has been raised and the audience has expanded. Batman grossed bil. Iron Man grossed a bil. Avengers grossed a bil. Lesser known characters like Cap and Thor are in their own successful franchises. The world is finally ready again for Superman. And this time they know it's going to be done right. It looks new. It looks fresh. It looks awe inspiring. It looks what everyone has been waiting for. And it has Nolan's name on it. I'm sorry, I just don't see how this thing has any chance of under performing. And if it's good? Forget it. Wait til people get a whiff of the action... which the trailers and TV spots have only briefly hinted at. People are going to be floored.

I'm not predicting Avengers numbers but I think the people being conservative with their predictions are in for a pleasant surprise.

 

[Mysteryman]

You're absolutely right, but that's also because everyone SR didn't offer anything new. It looked cheesy. Superman himself looked cheesy. The costume looked cheesy. The trailer was cheesy (bullet in the eye?). Kevin Spacey's Lex looked cheesy. It even had the old 70's score. Everyone knew what they were gonna get before they even headed into the theater. An old fashioned, campy, Saturday morning cartoon style Superman riding the coattails of a 30 year old movie.... and all this in the midst of superhero genre that was changing and evolving right before everyone's eyes. And yet despite all that... the movie STILL made a decent amount of money despite the fact that word of mouth was horrible. Why? Because it's Superman.

This time it's different. People didn't know what to expect with Begins because it was such a drastically different approach to the genre, and while the superhero genre was definitely in full gear... the only superhero with a colossal hit was Spiderman. But that was then and this is now. As crazy as it sounds, the genre is even MORE popular now. The bar has been raised and the audience has expanded. Batman grossed bil. Iron Man grossed a bil. Avengers grossed a bil. Lesser known characters like Cap and Thor are in their own successful franchises. The world is finally ready again for Superman. And this time they know it's going to be done right. It looks new. It looks fresh. It looks awe inspiring. It looks what everyone has been waiting for. And it has Nolan's name on it. I'm sorry, I just don't see how this thing has any chance of under performing. And if it's good? Forget it. Wait til people get a whiff of the action... which the trailers and TV spots have only briefly hinted at. People are going to be floored.

I'm not predicting Avengers numbers but I think the people being conservative with their predictions are in for a pleasant surprise.

What do you think the numbers for MOS Opening weekend will be ?

 

[Skrilla31]

What do you think the numbers for MOS Opening weekend will be ?

That's the thing. I think this movie is going to - hopefully - succeed on word of mouth. But the opening weekend? It'll be big. Not Iron Man 3 big... but big enough.

120-130 mil? Maybe? Honestly I have no idea. We're still a month away so we have no idea the type of momentum this thing is going to have until the marketing campaign is in full force. When it's the week or two before and every other commercial on TV is features Superman.... we'll be able to better gauge the hype.

 

[Micromind]

The problem with SR was that it's villain was not visually appealing "Lex Luthor" again with unoriginal take, plus maybe the story was in a soap-opera style.

People wanted action, that was not present in the movie. Also there was competition from very good popcorn fun movie like POTC 2.

MOS will have to face some competition from Monsters University and Gen. Zod is not exactly a new villain either, see how a movie (STID) featuring an old villain again is currently doing at Box Office, not good.

 

[Liam_H]

But STID wasn't marketed with an old villain, they probably would've done better if they had actually said who he really was.

 

[Marvin]

You're absolutely right, but that's also because everyone saw that SR didn't offer anything new. It looked cheesy. Superman himself looked cheesy. The costume looked cheesy. The trailer was cheesy (bullet in the eye?). Kevin Spacey's Lex looked cheesy. It even had the old 70's score. Everyone knew what they were gonna get before they even headed into the theater. An old fashioned, campy, Saturday morning cartoon style Superman riding the coattails of a 30 year old movie.... and all this in the midst of superhero genre that was changing and evolving right before everyone's eyes. And yet despite all that... the movie STILL made a decent amount of money despite the fact that word of mouth was horrible. Why? Because it's Superman.

This time it's different. People didn't know what to expect with Begins because it was such a drastically different approach to the genre, and while the superhero genre was definitely in full gear... the only superhero with a colossal hit was Spiderman. But that was then and this is now. As crazy as it sounds, the genre is even MORE popular now. The bar has been raised and the audience has expanded. Batman grossed bil. Iron Man grossed a bil. Avengers grossed a bil. Lesser known characters like Cap and Thor are in their own successful franchises. The world is finally ready again for Superman. And this time they know it's going to be done right. It looks new. It looks fresh. It looks awe inspiring. It looks what everyone has been waiting for. And it has Nolan's name on it. I'm sorry, I just don't see how this thing has any chance of under performing. And if it's good? Forget it. Wait til people get a whiff of the action... which the trailers and TV spots have only briefly hinted at. People are going to be floored.

I'm not predicting Avengers numbers but I think the people being conservative with their predictions are in for a pleasant surprise.

BINGO.
And in hindsight it's going to be all too obvious.

The only dredd is that the opening weekend isn't going to be as strong as it could have had the marketing been more to the point. I heard the action is going to rival avengers, funny thing is, with avengers people knew that going in. With superman, people don't even know if it's possible given what's come before.

 

[Marvin]

But STID wasn't marketed with an old villain, they probably would've done better if they had actually said who he really was.

JJ Abrams wouldn't have it.
Look for the same when Star Wars get's going. Some guy in a hood and that's all well ever know till the film opens.

I think it stung them this time. The buzz would have been much much greater if said film was sold on "Abram's Khan re-imagining"
I would compare it to TDK being sold on a john harrison type as opposed to Joker. Not the same but it's the principle that matters.

 

[terry78]

BINGO.
And in hindsight it's going to be all too obvious.

The only dredd is that the opening weekend isn't going to be as strong as it could have had the marketing been more to the point.

Freudian slip?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No doubt the early numbers for Into Darkness are disappointing. I don't think mentioning who the villain by name was the problem. I think it was a bad idea to wait four years to make a sequel, it should have come out last year and the overperformance of Gatsby isn't helping it's case.

I didn't say anything until now but eventhough I predicted 325mil total for Trek 2, I became worried the studio's tracking was lower than expected because they began to over promote it. Here's hoping it hits 200mil because even that isn't assured now.

Now I'm thinking Fast 6 is going to explode and kill The Hangover 3. I don't think this means anything for Supes.

 

[Raiden]

No doubt the early numbers for Into Darkness are disappointing. I don't think mentioning who the villain by name was the problem. I think it was a bad idea to wait four years to make a sequel, it should have come out last year and the overperformance of Gatsby isn't helping it's case.

I didn't say anything until now but eventhough I predicted 325mil total for Trek 2, I became worried the studio's tracking was lower than expected because they began to over promote it. Here's hoping it hits 200mil because even that isn't assured now.

Now I'm thinking Fast 6 is going to explode and kill The Hangover 3. I don't think this means anything for Supes.

Yeah, I think the 4-year-wait is what is really hurting STID right now. From what I've heard, it's a good movie, but the longer wait plus TGG's overachieving and IM3 still holding steady at the BO are cutting into its business. However, if the WOM is good, I think its underperforming OW may be salvaged with stronger legs in the subsequent weeks. But what may be more disappointing to the Trekkers is that this may be the last time Abrams direct a Star Trek movie, since he's moving on to Episode 7 next, although there are some traditionalists who are more than happy to see Abrams leaving the franchise.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I wish Abrams would've chucked the current writers for this franchise. I know they are his friends but they are more idea men then screenwriters.

I know it's not my money but I like to root on movies and actors I like to succeed. So it sucks not to see 30mil instead of 22mil.

Well my predictions for all the films so far have been off. I predicted Gatsby to make way less than it's going to make, I predicted Trek 2 to make way more than it's going to make and Iron Man 3 is going to do more than 375mil.

My 260mil prediction for Man of Steel is probably toast.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

iron Man 3 isn't as horrible a crime against humanity as its detractors are claiming since it's showing healthy legs. If it was it would've had Spider-man 3 drops.

 

[terry78]

People didn't expect Gatsby to go as long as it is. Leo is a draw for the most part, but while the book itself is a classic, it's not like Hunger Games "omg I gotta see this!" level for most people.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

iron Man 3 isn't as horrible a crime against humanity as its detractors are claiming since it's showing healthy legs. If it was it would've had Spider-man 3 drops.

Exactly.

It's being better recieved than Iron Man 2.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I chalk it up to fanboys; a loud but insignificant minor minority. The layman doesn't give a crap about the Mandarin.

 

[Marvin]

Sometimes the four year wait isn't a bad thing, it's just a year longer. Imagine it was a 10 year wait? I think there is a slight over emphasis on that extra year, sure momentum starts to go down 3 months after release but it hasn't been that bad.

Marvel again is playing the shrewd card in that no one is going to forgot about avengers due to the assembly line of productions that studio is turning out. The only real gamble(and it's pretty significant) is if all these films sucked and put the Marvel brand in a bad place. Normally I'd say that's impossible but it seems Phase 2 has marvel taking risks for once(see Trevor).

Anyways, I think trek could have had a huge buzz increase if they had only marketed Kahn from the start and not some unknown actor playing some unknown character. I don't see how this can be argued. The four year thing is open for debate.

If Paramount has any brains at all, they will get Brad Bird on Star Trek asap.

 

[terry78]

Yeah, I notice that the marketing did push Cumberbatch in a few areas, and people I know were like, "who?" He just ain't that popular over here yet.