Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[GreenKToo]

I think if you guess an 85 mill ow you could be right.
I also think that if you guess a 125 mill OW you could be right as well.
Thats how much of an unknown MoS is.
Will the GA take to it or not, thats the question.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

95-105 m OW is my predict.

Hopefully it can fly by 300 m.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Definitely. If MOS has a lukewarm opening weekend. The news about the lukewarm opening weekend will kill its box office, no matter how good the WOM is.

WOM can do alot for a movie.

Titanic and Avatar had relatively small opening weekends.

 

[terry78]

I think it could do about 90 mil opening. It's not a continuation like SR, and they actually have the means to do stuff from the comics with current technology that they weren't able to back in the day.

 

[Mr.M]

Still didn't see that third trailer in theatres yet. Why it wasn't attached with IM3 is beyond me. I think the marketing just hasn't been there. Looks so gloomy and depressing at times when the final trailer was anything but.

 

[Project862006]

^i saw it with im3

 

[Princess Denise]

If anything people should see how with SITD over-expectations in Box office are very possible.

That's a lesson for MOS, i wonder if WB is going to temper their OW predictions for MOS? Paramout was originally predicting over a $100m weekend than dropped it down quickly to the mid-80's when the friday results came in.

I'd say STID actually had the advantage over MOS in that it was coming off a sucessful well received predecessor.

I feel there are good reasons to believe that MOS will perform better than STID:

1) MOS will have less competition. It really will have the first weekend all to itself. STID is really being hurt by the overperformances of IM3 and TGG. I read somewhere that TGG's success is taking away some female moviegoers who may else have seen STID.


2) MOS is opening Father's Day weekend which should boost the box office.


3) Superman has more wider appeal than Star Trek.


4) The marketing of STID was terrible with boring trailers and they moved it up a day at the last minute so that probably confused audiences.

5) The marketing for MOS is impressive. Great action packed trailers and the collaboration with Wal-Mart. If MOS underperforms I do not think anybody can claim that it is because no one knew about it or the trailers did not reveal it's awesomeness.


6) STID has no big stars and I think it has hurt it. I read when they were developing the first ST that they wanted Matt Damon and Adrien Brody. Now I am not saying it would make all the difference in world, but when regular moviegoers see known actors in a trailer it makes you notice it more at least so I think it does matter. MOS has Russell Crowe, Amy Adams, Kevin Costner, and Diane Lane. They all may not be the biggest drawers in Hollywood, but it does give a film certain prestige that makes people stand up and take notice.


7) Though I have not yet seen STID I must say that I can undertand why fans are divided and this may have affected WOM even during the first weekend. First of all many are saying that it is just a remake of TWOK. Also, I hear there is an anti-Bush political message. Now if you want a movie to have mass appeal you just do NOT include a political message that you know will offend half the country! This should be filmmaking 101.

I am not a blind optimist, but I really think MOS will easily reach 100 million in it's first weekend. t:

 

[Marvin]

I think it could do about 90 mil opening. It's not a continuation like SR, and they actually have the means to do stuff from the comics with current technology that they weren't able to back in the day.

Good for word of mouth, but lack of any of that non SR stuff in these trailers and I see a possibly sub 90 mill opening.

Impossible to know, there are so many variables, Returns vs Superman's sheer brand recognition...Nolan's brand, the release date..

Those early numbers are going to be really really exciting to hear I'm sure.

 

[GreenKToo]

I'll be happier than a cat in a string factory if MoS makes 110 mill + its OW.

 

[Iceman]

I want $100m but I'm not totally confident of that. This one's hard to predict with all those factors thrown in. The next one though will be a beast if this lives up to trailers.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

OW I say $100 mil. I think that's safe.

 

[restlessdreams]

Does anyone think that This Is The End might take away from MOS? I'm not saying it's going to win the weekend but it might divide the audience. It's looks like a better date movie than MOS. I know my girlfriend and a few of my other friends girlfriends want to see it when it comes. It's just a thought but I'm still sticking to my guess of 100 million.

 

[DarthAlani]

Not at all. Its a comedy and its R.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Does anyone think that This Is The End might take away from MOS? I'm not saying it's going to win the weekend but it might divide the audience. It's looks like a better date movie than MOS. I know my girlfriend and a few of my other friends girlfriends want to see it when it comes. It's just a thought but I'm still sticking to my guess of 100 million.

You're right. There are a lot of people looking forward to that cast. It's definitely competition.

 

[Anita18]

7) Though I have not yet seen STID I must say that I can undertand why fans are divided and this may have affected WOM even during the first weekend. First of all many are saying that it is just a remake of TWOK. Also, I hear there is an anti-Bush political message. Now if you want a movie to have mass appeal you just do NOT include a political message that you know will offend half the country! This should be filmmaking 101.

I've heard nothing of the sort about STID and I know a slew of liberals, although we've all seen TDK and it's arguable there was a pro-Bush message in there. So that argument is moot.

Does anyone think that This Is The End might take away from MOS? I'm not saying it's going to win the weekend but it might divide the audience. It's looks like a better date movie than MOS. I know my girlfriend and a few of my other friends girlfriends want to see it when it comes. It's just a thought but I'm still sticking to my guess of 100 million.

That movie's a comedy and it's R. Different audiences. 20-30 somethings might see it, but I can't see them capturing the teens or the older adults.

And a comedy with those schlubs (well ok, maybe not James Franco) vs HENRY CAVILL?!??! Those girlfriends are insane.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Also, I hear there is an anti-Bush political message. Now if you want a movie to have mass appeal you just do NOT include a political message that you know will offend half the country! This should be filmmaking 101.

Iron Man 3 made fun of America's foreign policy and also bombed.

 

[Marvin]

Looking at the type of crowd this is the end will bring in. I'd say MoS would do a degree better had that film not existed.

The really really really stupid part is that they could have moved that film to the now empty weekend prior and everyone would be happy.

 

[restlessdreams]

I've heard nothing of the sort about STID and I know a slew of liberals, although we've all seen TDK and it's arguable there was a pro-Bush message in there. So that argument is moot.


That movie's a comedy and it's R. Different audiences. 20-30 somethings might see it, but I can't see them capturing the teens or the older adults.

Older adults won't see it but kids in high school will.

And a comedy with those schlubs (well ok, maybe not James Franco) vs HENRY CAVILL?!??! Those girlfriends are insane.

She want's to see it because it looks funny not because of the guys that are in it. I can't speak for the other girls.

But once again it's just another movie MOS will crush but could be interesting to see how much This Is The End makes.

 

[DarthAlani]

MOS will destroy TETE. There is a reason it moved, and After Earth moved.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

TETE?

 

[Princess Denise]

Iron Man 3 made fun of America's foreign policy and also bombed.

Was it blatantly partisan?

I have read alot that STID is clearly drawing a parallel to the Bush policies after 9/11. Benedict Cumberbatch even gave an interview where he said that STID is indeed a critique of the Bush/Cheney years. Now if filmmakers want to make a film with a certain political ideology and don't care if anyone is offended well that's fine. However, it is a bad idea if you want your film to be a successful summer blockbuster because we live in a bitterly divided country and conservatives will shun a movie if they even get a whiff of it trying to send a "liberal" message. Now STID did fine with 84 million, but it probably was hurt somewhat by this perception.

 

[Princess Denise]

MOS will destroy TETE. There is a reason it moved, and After Earth moved.

I can't imagine that TITE and AE will hurt MOS the way IM3 and TGG have dug into STID's box office. But I guess you never really know.

 

[DarthAlani]

TETE?

This is the End.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Wouldn't that be TITE?

 

[DarthAlani]

Yeah. My bad.