Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't think it had anything to do with Trek's lack of popularity. I'm doing some hardcore Monday morning QBing here but I think the four year wait, the lack of a big name actor playing the villian and dumb idea not to sell the movie harder to women hurt it tremendously. And obviously they didn't do as good a job of selling it to young people.

In other words, ST lacks popularity. None of that would have mattered if it were truly popular on a wide scale.

 

[Tobias]

I don't think it had anything to do with Trek's lack of popularity. I'm doing some hardcore Monday morning QBing here but I think the four year wait, the lack of a big name actor playing the villian and dumb idea not to sell the movie harder to women hurt it tremendously. And obviously they didn't do as good a job of selling it to young people.

I'm never sure if big name actors in supporting roles make a difference. Think Spacey.

 

[Tobias]

In other words, ST lacks popularity. None of that would have mattered if it were truly popular on a wide scale.

Yeah but let's be honest, Superman lacks popularity too. Yet you feel the tracking will be closer to the mark (not off as much) than with STID.

Maybe one thing to do is average the various tracking numbers. That may be what BOM and other sites do before making their weekend predictions. I notice at times they differ from some of the tracking projections.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So basically you are saying a sound methodology that has been tweaked to over-state the high side due to recent big misses as with Avengers.

That will make this weekend interesting. Hangover does not have the Leo factor but a good previous film so you'd think it will do close to it's tracking. Same for F&F. Is that how you see these two?

Basically, yes.

This weekend is going to be interesting. While it is the "last" Hangover film, I don't think the sequel is going to do it any favors domestically. I think the new one will open well and drop like a stone, unless it is considered on par with the first. Then it might have some legs.

FF6 is interesting because it is the first sequel to the first truly popular film in the series since the first. As if it were the first film in the series. Should get a strong first week bump domestically, and the fact that it is PG-13 and has things that could appeal to both sexes, it should win this weekend. It just won't match FF5 domestically over the long haul imo. Should do even better overseas though.

I do think both are going to lose a good amount of business this weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah but let's be honest, Superman lacks popularity too. Yet you feel the tracking will be closer to the mark (not off as much) than with STID.

Maybe one thing to do is average the various tracking numbers. That may be what BOM and other sites do before making their weekend predictions. I notice at times they differ from some of the tracking projections.

Superman has a few advantages. Nolan's name, TDK saga, release date, and the fact that superheroes are in right now.

 

[Tobias]

Superman has a few advantages. Nolan's name, TDK saga, release date, and the fact that superheroes are in right now.

Funny thing is that even before the STID tracking miss, many posters here didn't believe the 120 million or whatever number for MOS from one of the tracking firms. Most or many seemed to think 100 million or maybe less. Odd in a way. Excel is about the only one who took the number seriously.

 

[Tobias]

Basically, yes.

This weekend is going to be interesting. While it is the "last" Hangover film, I don't think the sequel is going to do it any favors domestically. I think the new one will open well and drop like a stone, unless it is considered on par with the first. Then it might have some legs.

FF6 is interesting because it is the first sequel to the first truly popular film in the series since the first. As if it were the first film in the series. Should get a strong first week bump domestically, and the fact that it is PG-13 and has things that could appeal to both sexes, it should win this weekend. It just won't match FF5 domestically over the long haul imo. Should do even better overseas though.

I do think both are going to lose a good amount of business this weekend.

You mean lose business the second weekend out?

This weekend STID was up against the strongest #2 and #3 combo of any weekend in a long time or so I read.

Not sure how Smith's film will hold up week 2 but The End Of The World could be a wildcard for MOS and take a lot of females.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Funny thing is that even before the STID tracking miss, many posters here didn't believe the 120 million or whatever number for MOS from one of the tracking firms. Most or many seemed to think 100 million or maybe less. Odd in a way. Excel is about the only one who took the number seriously.

Those numbers do seem to be reaching. Most places I have looked have it between $95mil and $108mil, which I think is reasonable.

Some here are going to over do it, and then make excuses or blame the audiences if those numbers don't match. That or they will disappear until it blows over.

You mean loose business the second weekend out?

Not sure what question you are asking. If it is on the last sentence, I think they will lose money this week, but the real effect could be seen the first full week and next weekend.

 

[Tobias]

Those numbers do seem to be reaching. Most places I have looked have it between $95mil and $108mil, which I think is reasonable.

Some here are going to over do it, and then make excuses or blame the audiences if those numbers don't match. That or they will disappear until it blows over.


Not sure what question you are asking. If it is on the last sentence, I think they will lose money this week, but the real effect could be seen the first full week and next weekend.

Make it 100 million and if that is the OW number it will need a very strong multiplier to get to 300 million. Not impossible but not easy either.

So the reality is tracking is showing 95 - 108 and the numbers posted above by a regular here are real outliers. He should be posting the other numbers you mention too.

If tracking is showing 95 - 108 the week before release WB will what? Predict 95 - 100? Paramount under-predicted the 110 tracking was showing for SID.

You seem to have a real handle on this. Makes a lot of sense to me.

May I ask your prediction? OW, domestic and OS (OS being more a ballpark I know). Don't worry - won't hold you to it - LOL.

My prediction is 90OW, 250 domestic and 300OS.

 

[Bruce Malone]

In other words, ST lacks popularity. None of that would have mattered if it were truly popular on a wide scale.

How popular is superman on a worldwide scale though? There may be similar issues. Yes his name is known world-wide but so is star trek technically as well.

Overseas audiences can be fickle as to which super-heroes they like. Spider-man been really popular for a while,they took some time to warm up to batman, Iron-Man also arguably. Aside from how well returns did overseas superman may have question mark next to it in that regards?

I think the high end for MOS is about $700m which would be great but i'm not really sure at this point?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Make it 100 million and if that is the OW number it will need a very strong multiplier to get to 300 million. Not impossible but not easy either.

So the reality is tracking is showing 95 - 108 and the numbers posted above by a regular here are real outliers. He should be posting the other numbers you mention too.

If tracking is showing 95 - 108 the week before release WB will what? Predict 95 - 100? Paramount under-predicted the 110 tracking was showing for SID.

You seem to have a real handle on this. Make a lot of sense to me.

May I ask your prediction? OW, domestic and OS (OS being more a ballpark I know). Don't worry - won't hold you to it - LOL.

My prediction is 90OW, 250 domestic and 300OS.

The WB will say they are pleased with anything really, but if it does under 90mil OW, I don't think they will be pleased. Anything over that and I think they will be happy.

I am not to be on doing predictions, Especially after SR. And we are still a ways out and for all I know the movie might be terrible. But, why not. t:

OW-$100mil
Domestic- $290mil
International-$325mil

I have a good feeling that if this movie is brilliant like I hope, it will have some strong legs, and could see a strong multiplier. If it is really that good, I don't think $300mil plus domestically and $400mil internationally is out of the question.

How popular is superman on a worldwide scale though? There may be similar issues. Yes his name is known world-wide but so is star trek technically as well.

Overseas audiences can be fickle as to which super-heroes they like. Spider-man been really popular for a while,they took some time to warm up to batman, Iron-Man also arguably. Aside from how well returns did overseas superman may have question mark next to it in that regards?

I think the high end for MOS is about $700m which would be great but i'm not really sure at this point?

I am not disagreeing with that. I just think MoS has a few things going for it. I also am not predicting something crazy. I am one of the few preaching to lower your expectations.

 

[Tobias]

3 tracking companies/theater chains have opening weekend tracking ...

From last week
RS - 125
BTC - 125

New today
MTC - 130 (just released @ hsx.com)

Man, it this film fails to break 100, it's going to look bad for the tracking systems.

We'll see in a little over 3 1/2 weeks.

Actually most tracking is apparently showing just 95 - 108 million OW.

The figures you posted are outliers and un-realistic. You should include the much lower consensus numbers too. To give a full picture and not get folks to expect some unrealistic number only to be greatly disappointed when the numbers do come in.

 

[Marvin]

The WB will say they are pleased with anything really, but if it does under 90mil OW, I don't think they will be pleased. Anything over that and I think they will be happy.

I am not to be on doing predictions, Especially after SR. And we are still a ways out and for all I know the movie might be terrible. But, why not. t:

OW-$100mil
Domestic- $290mil
International-$325mil

I just don't see how we can live in a world where this is rational yet the most well known characters let alone superheroes ever, in a well produced and seemingly all check marks checked action film in a time when Superhero films are more popular than ever is getting predictions like this.

Some so called original sci fi from the very same producer of all things.
I suppose that explains the 290 domestic guess though.

Singer must have really done a number on this entire situation, can't see how anyone can defend that film at this point.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Mickey mouse is probably the most well known fictional character of the last 100 years and it's not like he's a super-hot property right now.

Iron Man a super-hero who was on the B-List essentially until 2008 is the hottest/biggest super-hero at the moment in terms of film. It's all about what have you done for me lately? not legacy.

So MOS has to build-up it's own legacy and can't expect the legacy of the superman character alone to really help it out.

 

[Tobias]

The WB will say they are pleased with anything really, but if it does under 90mil OW, I don't think they will be pleased. Anything over that and I think they will be happy.

I am not to be on doing predictions, Especially after SR. And we are still a ways out and for all I know the movie might be terrible. But, why not. t:

OW-$100mil
Domestic- $290mil
International-$325mil

I have a good feeling that if this movie is brilliant like I hope, it will have some strong legs, and could see a strong multiplier. If it is really that good, I don't think $300mil plus domestically and $400mil internationally is out of the question.


I am not disagreeing with that. I just think MoS has a few things going for it. I also am not predicting something crazy. I am one of the few preaching to lower your expectations.

I too am one of the few preaching lower your expectations. Remember what happened with SR.

I think the STID results have gotten a few here to re-evaluate and lower their numbers. It would be interesting to see a BO poll put up 2 weeks before release and see how it compares to the poll that is at the top here and was was put up more than a year ago.

 

[Marvin]

Mickey mouse is probably the most well known fictional character of the last 100 years and it's not like he's a super-hot property right now.

Iron Man a super-hero who was on the B-List essentially until 2008 is the hottest/biggest super-hero at the moment in terms of film. It's all about what have you done for me lately? not legacy.

So MOS has to build-up it's own legacy and can't expect the legacy of the superman character alone to really help it out.

We can all agree that it's a combination of things.
Perhaps the first spiderman and the measure of his brand's reach would be a better example.

Elsewise someone may compare the Superman Brand to a Ronald Macdonald film next.

That being said, I wouldn't under estimate a brand bird directed pixar Mickey Mouse feature/reboot thing. Brand being key there.

 

[kendalag]

Actually most tracking is apparently showing just 95 - 108 million OW.

The figures you posted are outliers and un-realistic. You should include the much lower consensus numbers too. To give a full picture and not get folks to expect some unrealistic number only to be greatly disappointed when the numbers do come in.

No it's NOT ... why are you posting this garbage and acting like it's fact. Boxoffice.com predicts 108 ... EW predicts 125, I'm sure other 'predictions' are 95.

The tracking is from companies who do this for business. Sometimes they're off, sometimes they're exactly right. BUT these are 3 who do it. No others right now that we know of.

BTC does tracking and they hit Iron Man 3, TGG RIGHT on the money on opening weekend ... and prected only 90 million over 4 days for STID ... and it did 84.

ReelSource has 125
MTC has 130
BTC has 125

THOSE are the #s. Are they going to be reached, probably not, but that is the tracking date, not 95-108. I'm always on BO.com forums & hsx.com, so I know the tracking #s.

... and whether people get disappointed or not is irrelevant.

PREDICTIONS on sites and actual TRACKING are two different things. Tracking actually uses polling data and awareness levels to make determinations on box office.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I just don't see how we can live in a world where this is rational yet the most well known characters let alone superheroes ever, in a well produced and seemingly all check marks checked action film in a time when Superhero films are more popular than ever is getting predictions like this.

Some so called original sci fi from the very same producer of all things.
I suppose that explains the 290 domestic guess though.

Singer must have really done a number on this entire situation, can't see how anyone can defend that film at this point.

Nolan was, and well, still is in God mode after TDK. He is in a period, not unlike Spielberg and Cameron, where he can attract big audiences with his name.

If MoS is great and takes off at the BO, I will be more then happy to be wrong. As I said, $700mil+ worldwide wouldn't shock me.

 

[Tobias]

No it's NOT ... why are you posting this garbage and acting like it's fact. Boxoffice.com predicts 108 ... EW predicts 125, I'm sure other 'predictions' are 95.

The tracking is from companies who do this for business. Sometimes they're off, sometimes they're exactly right. BUT these are 3 who do it. No others right now that we know of.

BTC does tracking and they hit Iron Man 3, TGG RIGHT on the money on opening weekend ... and prected only 90 million over 4 days for STID ... and it did 84.

ReelSource has 125
MTC has 130
BTC has 125

THOSE are the #s. Are they going to be reached, probably not, but that is the tracking date, not 95-108. I'm always on BO.com forums & hsx.com, so I know the tracking #s.

... and whether people get disappointed or not is irrelevant.

PREDICTIONS on sites and actual TRACKING are two different things. Tracking actually uses polling data and awareness levels to make determinations on box office.

Another poster here said the numbers he is seeing are 95 - 108. I dunno which tracking firms he is looking at. I dunno how many such firms there are.

You mention 3 primarily and here mentioned boxoffice.com which is at 108 million. Is EW really a tracking firm or is that just a prediction on their part.

The sites like BOM got Gatsby and STID wrong. Odd, they didn't use BTC?

I'd think they would average the 4, 5 or however many tracking firms/groups there are.

The poster said, again, he is seeing 95 - 108.

Why not list all the tracking firms, not predicting sites, and average them. Right off you'd have 130, 125, 125 and 108 based on your 4. That comes out at 116 or something.

Just saying.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

I think it's safe to say MOS will hit 100-110 OW.
Worse case 85-90 OW

 

[GreenKToo]

yea, I think 100/110 ow, or there about.

 

[Marvin]

Do people actually think this film's opening 3 day will beat STID's opening 4 days?

 

[Liam_H]

Yes considering STID 4 days was lower than I had thought it would be.

 

[db85usa]

Well, boys and girls, after seeing 'The Fate of Your Planet' trailer, I think I'm going to throw out a new insane prediction because I'm so excited for this movie.

$188 Million Opening Weekend. Yep, it'll overtake that metal guy. This IS F*****G SUPERMAN!!!

$540 Million Domestic
$700 Million Foreign

Talks of Justice League will go insane when a surprise end credits scene of Clark Kent at the Daily Planet in Perry Whites' office while Jenny Olson shouts, "KENT! Some guy named Bruce Wayne is here to see you."

 

[WarriorDreamer]

A billion. People who love Superman will most likely come along, people who loved TDK saga will likely come along, just because of Chris Nolan's name, Smallville fans (quite a few people who didn't know Superman before they watched Smallville and then were hooked, sorta like me) will watch, superhero fans (superhero movies are since the year 2000 seem to be the hottest most profitable movies in Hollywood, so there's a good chance many general superhero fans will show up) and then general movie audience who just want a decent blockbuster. Then you have fans of the cast and the movie does have an epic cast. I say that racks up to at least a billion. Fingers crossed.