Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[GreenKToo]

Anything $80M and up is a win. My instinct is it will over-perform. $125M.

wow!! really. I have to say I never thought i'd here you say that..impressive.

It's got win written all over it. i'm at 115/120 ow at the moment.
320/25 dom
350/75 overseas. ( could be higher overseas, or lower, who knows about that. )

 

[GreenKToo]

Might as well. Maybe WB will compensate me for predicting Man of Steel will open with $130-$150 Million? Hey, I think I'd deserve at least a million dollars. I am sticking with that prediction and the people who want to shoot me down for it, go right ahead because this film is going to surprise everybody IMO.

Right or wrong, I admire you for sticking to your guns.

 

[JOE]

I'm still thinking it lands around 80M OW. Give or take 10M. Which is still respectable.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

wow!! really. I have to say I never thought i'd here you say that..impressive.

It's got win written all over it. i'm at 115/120 ow at the moment.
320/25 dom
350/75 overseas. ( could be higher overseas, or lower, who knows about that. )

Not betting big overseas. Even with the non-American Cavill in the role, they're pushing the Americana hard, i.e. the National Guard promotions, multiple production stills/images of Supes standing in front of that American flag building, etc. Trying to bring "the American way" back to Superman. Very smart IMO. Just not sure how that plays abroad.

Thinking... best scenario $250M-$300M international.

 

[GreenKToo]

Not betting big overseas. Even with the non-American Cavill in the role, they're pushing the Americana hard, i.e. the National Guard promotions, multiple production stills/images of Supes standing in front of that American flag building, etc. Trying to bring "the American way" back to Superman. Very smart IMO. Just not sure how that plays abroad.

Thinking... best scenario $250M-$300M international.

I agree. I think it could go either way over seas.
Hopefully, HUGE.

 

[Krumm]

Not betting big overseas. Even with the non-American Cavill in the role, they're pushing the Americana hard, i.e. the National Guard promotions, multiple production stills/images of Supes standing in front of that American flag building, etc. Trying to bring "the American way" back to Superman. Very smart IMO. Just not sure how that plays abroad.

Thinking... best scenario $250M-$300M international.

Good points but do you think that's how they are marketing it overseas?

 

[Smallville13]

Haven't seen anything at all in Australia. No Tv spots, billboards, nothing. And for every movie I've seen this year (Oblivion, IM3, STID) no MOS trailer. We don't get it til the 27th though so maybe when it's closer...

 

[Rowsdower!]

That's... odd. Australia has been a pretty good market for superhero films, hasn't it? It's a surprise they aren't promoting it more.

 

[Street Vendor]

I'm thinking around 90 million for a 275 million cume. Hoping it breaks out and does even better. As long as it does well enough for sequels, I'm fine.

 

[Marvin]

I personally think that the international numbers will double the domestic numbers whatever they may be, add all that together for a worldwide. I look at how spiderman/TF/inception played out and it's very assuring. The key thing about most of those is how accessible they were to the international market. Kids in asia love spiderman, kids(and grown ups) in asia love Transformers..etc
Superman growing up in the Mid West isn't going to change the fact that Superman is a huge well known and influential brand all over the world. If superman showed up in a Gundam movie right now, the audience would probably be able to identify him. That was the case with the likes of Thor.

With the (assumed)Quality, Scale, Brand, Names behind it, this just won't let me think this films possible best scenario in the foreign market will be in the Thor range. Just looking at those four criteria and comparing.
I'd hate to point things out in a direct fashion but Krypton looks to have alot more going for it than Asgard did in that first thor. All pointless interior shots and cold exterior establishings...Then there is where the character lands on earth and what comes of all of that. The use of seven eleven alone says plenty. The life long character development and arc...the list goes on and on.

As someone said before, those first superman products were a hugggge hit in overseas markets. It's why you will find people with his Tshirt in just about any country(that has tshirts). Thor didn't have that going for it, and it made $268 foreign.

WB needs to do two things to guarantee a monster hit. First was that they could have cut some of this new footage into those trailers that were playing in front of Ironman....oh well.
And second, they need to pull a marvel and just sell their product on the idea that it's super relevant because it's leading to other things. People tend to want be a part of it and feel they can't miss out on installments for that sake alone in some cases.
Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately for us, WB is doing things another way.

It's hard for me to breakdown/rationalize what happened with Returns other than that is was a really really lame movie that did basic Marvel numbers on brand alone.

 

[terry78]

I broke down and bought an advance Wal-Mart ticket. I'm curious to see the turnout.

 

[titansupes]

Haven't seen anything at all in Australia. No Tv spots, billboards, nothing. And for every movie I've seen this year (Oblivion, IM3, STID) no MOS trailer. We don't get it til the 27th though so maybe when it's closer...

A couple of weeks ago, I saw a few 5 second spots sprinkled throughout the Crows game. Just the shots of Superman in the snow, taking off and flying around the world.

And last year I saw the teaser trailer with The Dark Knight Rises, and the first theatrical trailer with The Hobbit.

I've only seen IM3 and STID this year... But didn't get a trailer with either.

We (for some ungodly reason) have it opening on the 27th here though. So I expect things to pick up AFTER June 14th. Maybe a few days prior. I would've thought we'd have a few more airing by now though.

 

[Smallville13]

A couple of weeks ago, I saw a few 5 second spots sprinkled throughout the Crows game. Just the shots of Superman in the snow, taking off and flying around the world.

And last year I saw the teaser trailer with The Dark Knight Rises, and the first theatrical trailer with The Hobbit.

I've only seen IM3 and STID this year... But didn't get a trailer with either.

We (for some ungodly reason) have it opening on the 27th here though. So I expect things to pick up AFTER June 14th. Maybe a few days prior. I would've thought we'd have a few more airing by now though.

Tell me about it. I did see trailer #2 with the Hobbit last year too. Thank god for the internet is all I'll say!

 

[JOE]

1) It wasn't obvious the Avengers would have the impact it did. Hindsight is 20/20 so it may seem like a sure thing now but most people didn't think IM3 would double IM2's WW gross.

2) How do you know Cavill's performance is clearly inferior to RDJ?

We don't know his performance is inferior to RDJ. But people loved the Avengers and IM3 because of RDJ. People don't know about Cavil yet. If he blows this out of the water, people will go see MOS 2 because of Cavil. Right now, people are going to watch Superman for Superman, not for Cavil.

 

[Autonet]

No idea what this will do in the BO after seeing it. I'm pretty sure any missteps the movie has won't affect it's BO takings. If IM3 could generate over $1 billion, this probably can as well. All comes down to awareness/hype.

I read an article yesterday where Google said they could predict the BO takings with 94% accuracy and that the 3-4 days before opening are where they see the data. I'll have to find it again.

 

[Pickleweasel]

Fast 6 wasn't getting that 3D money either

At least they didn't offer it at my local theater

 

[robot]

Haven't seen anything at all in Australia. No Tv spots, billboards, nothing. And for every movie I've seen this year (Oblivion, IM3, STID) no MOS trailer. We don't get it til the 27th though so maybe when it's closer...

That's... odd. Australia has been a pretty good market for superhero films, hasn't it? It's a surprise they aren't promoting it more.

It's not surprising to me... up until last week, there were nothing in Malaysia either... and as far as I can tell nothing in a lot of other Asian countries... until last week, I think they tied up with a local bank, and the bank is putting up displays at malls to sign up customers to their 'superman credit cards'.

I think WB is not really big on the OS market... maybe they think it's not going to do well there (which is a huge mistake if you ask me).

 

[Pickleweasel]

225M to make and 150M to market for a 375M total?

How much money does the movie need to make to make a profit?

Wasnt there a report that stated that WB has already earned some 100M+ even before the movie hits theaters?

I have heard the studio gets about 50% of the box office and I have also heard that it makes about 60% of the box office. So if you say 55% it only needs to make 410 Mil to cover the 225 Mil budget

 

[robot]

I have heard the studio gets about 50% of the box office and I have also heard that it makes about 60% of the box office. So if you say 55% it only needs to make 410 Mil to cover the 225 Mil budget

They make between 50-55% from the domestic market... the international market is a lot trickier... you take into consideration the 'tax' is also included i the ticket price, and then lower revenue share, etc.. i am guessing they might be able to do 20-30% off the ticket price...

 

[Liam_H]

You're only thinking of domestic. It gets far less of a % share from the international total.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't see a huge overseas performance either. I wouldn't be surprised if it did under 300mil like the first Iron Man did. Right now I'm sticking to 325mil but that's not a breakout number overseas either. It's a very good number though.

 

[Iceman]

Just over a week to go!

 

[GreenKToo]

I don't see a huge overseas performance either. I wouldn't be surprised if it did under 300mil like the first Iron Man did. Right now I'm sticking to 325mil but that's not a breakout number overseas either. It's a very good number though.

I know. Its too hard to predict. I wouldnt be surprised if its 285/300 overseas.
BUT, I also wouldnt be surprised if its 375/400.
I'm gonna guess around 375, just for shets and giggles.

 

[Notrip]

Boxoffice.com new predictions - Opening Weekend: $115,000,000 [proj.] | Total Domestic Gross: $357,000,000 [pred.]

They have gone up 7 million since the beginning of their long term p. and up about 32 million in their total gross.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Even though Superman isn't a huge player overseas currently I think market expansion and 3D should help it considerably. It could get 40 m in China alone.

I think 400 m OS is very much in play.

If it breaks out in North America it could beat ASM worldwide (752 m WW).