Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Greeneyes]

This is not about tracking. Weren't you claiming that MoS FB likes is too low and thus performing poorly in the social media and will affect the Box office outcome? That article by Box office.com shows the exact opposite. Those social media number are not guess work but real data from FB and twitter. People are entitled to be pessimistic. Thats ok. But in your case, i get the vibe that you want this movie to fail under the guise that you are pessimist.

Yep. Well spotted Juha Bach

 

[acedrake]

I am expecting Man Of Steel to do great. I was sure that the movie was a sure hit, but after seen the spots I can no see it doing anything less than 700 as the lowest point and easily upwards of 800

 

[Liam_H]

Wow FF6 doing great. Making 122M Ow!!! It seems like it's easy to make over 100M OW in theses days

That's for the 4 day.

 

[Picklen]

This is the showing that I'm going to. Sooooo close to selling out. Come on!

Does anybody know why MoS wasn't filmed in IMAX? I mean AT LEAST 20 minutes shot with IMAX cameras would have been great and actually worth the 20 bucks.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I honestly don't understand why anyone would compare MOS with Superman Returns. Most of the GA are comparing it to Avengers, TDK trilogy or even Transformers (for the action). But it makes sense that people would rather have a low estimate and the actual value is higher than the other way around.

 

[Moridin]

Well, Box Office updated their long range forecast for MoS to $112 Million for the OW and $340 Million domestic. (I'm sure many of you are aware of that update,) But yet, they project $76 Million OW for Despicable Me 2 and $353 Million domestic. Really? A 4.6+ multiplier? No way that happens. If anything, it'll open biggger than $76 Million IMO.

Well the first has like a 4.4 or something, so it's not that outlandish.

Wow FF6 doing great. Making 122M Ow!!! It seems like it's easy to make over 100M OW in theses days

FF6 is is coming off a very popular, 2 year old film.

I honestly don't understand why anyone would compare MOS with Superman Returns.

2 movies based on the same character. What's to understand?

Most of the GA are comparing it to Avengers, TDK trilogy or even Transformers (for the action).

I don't see how you could back up a statement like that... ?

But it makes sense that people would rather have a low estimate and the actual value is higher than the other way around.

The BO success of Batman, Avengers & Iron Man has really skewed peoples perception of what "big" is. Mid-high 200's to low 300 mil US (aka the amount I see most predicting) is big money.

 

[Tobias]

I honestly don't understand why anyone would compare MOS with Superman Returns. Most of the GA are comparing it to Avengers, TDK trilogy or even Transformers (for the action). But it makes sense that people would rather have a low estimate and the actual value is higher than the other way around.

Are you talking about the estimates in magazines and general, non-fan, movie sites. Those are in the 250, 260, 270 and 280 million range. I am not sure if these people see MOS as more TDK than SR. I suspect it is a mix. I talked about 15 people into seeing SR. They were disappointed. I've shown them the trailers for MOS but, aside from 5 - and 2 of those are women and they are only going because of Henry being in it, the rest don't plan on seeing MOS. They see it as just another SR. I am hoping WOM is so good they end up changing their minds and see it after all. So definitely some of the GA is seeing this as SR.

I think the reason for the relatively low estimates on these sites is a general knowledge that Superman is not as popular as Batman or the big Marvel characters. It is what it is. Don't forget too that TASM did what 260 million domestic? So these estimates seem legit to me.

The task of MOS is to transform the image of Superman among the GP. You mentioned this. The 'S' is not for Superman but for hope. Man of Steel - emphasis on man. No mention of Superman in the film it seems.

If MOS can pull this off and get a modest box, WB is supposedly looking for 300 million but if it gets 280 million and has strong reviews and RT scores, I think WB will move ahead with either JL or another MOS film.

Now if you are talking predictions on Superman fan sites they are way high and some would say over the top.

If MOS gets close to 300 million, is well received and WB moves ahead with another then you will see the mega numbers we see with Spidey, Ironman and Batman. Or close to them anyway.

MOS is re-introducing Superman to the GP/GA and that type of film is not going to be huge as say an F&F which is playing off a hugely popular franchise and a very recent, 2 years, very well-received F&F5.

Ironically, Ratner's 2006 Superman film was to be a re-introduction. It was needed then and more so now.

 

[fake]

Are you talking about the estimates in magazines and general, non-fan, movie sites. Those are in the 250, 260, 270 and 280 million range. I am not sure if these people see MOS as more TDK than SR. I suspect it is a mix. I talked about 15 people into seeing SR. They were disappointed. I've shown them the trailers for MOS but, aside from 5 - and 2 of those are women and they are only going because of Henry being in it, the rest don't plan on seeing MOS. They see it as just another SR. I am hoping WOM is so good they end up changing their minds and see it after all. So definitely some of the GA is seeing this as SR.

I think the reason for the relatively low estimates on these sites is a general knowledge that Superman is not as popular as Batman or the big Marvel characters. It is what it is. Don't forget too that TASM did what 260 million domestic? So these estimates seem legit to me.

The task of MOS is to transform the image of Superman among the GP. You mentioned this. The 'S' is not for Superman but for hope. Man of Steel - emphasis on man. No mention of Superman in the film it seems.

If MOS can pull this off and get a modest box, WB is supposedly looking for 300 million but if it gets 280 million and has strong reviews and RT scores, I think WB will move ahead with either JL or another MOS film.

Now if you are talking predictions on Superman fan sites they are way high and some would say over the top.

If MOS gets close to 300 million, is well received and WB moves ahead with another then you will see the mega numbers we see with Spidey, Ironman and Batman. Or close to them anyway.

MOS is re-introducing Superman to the GP/GA and that type of film is not going to be huge as say an F&F which is playing off a hugely popular franchise and a very recent, 2 years, very well-received F&F5.

Ironically, Ratner's 2006 Superman film was to be a re-introduction. It was needed then and more so now.

Actually what these estimates tell us is that Superman is actually more popular than the big Marvel characters (Spider-Man excepted). Apart from Iron Man, no other solo Marvel character movie has actually crossed 200M domestically.

 

[Greeneyes]

No, aside from FB likes, MOS is doing decent with social media. I in fact said if FB likes can increase over these final weeks to 850K or so I will up my 550 WW prediction. It's the increase over these coming weeks in likes which will indicate if something is going on at the "grassroots".

The film looks incredible. This is the film we needed in 2006. Henry is everything I could have asked for in the actor chosen to play Supes. I want it to succeed but in a way, yes, I am a pessimist. I was literally sick for a day or two after SR came out because of the numbers. I was so sure it would blow the BO away. Not going down that path again.

Go read my Supes fic on fanfiction.net and tell me I am not a fan. It takes, for me anyway, a lot of effort to write good stories but I am willing to do that if it is a good cause. And Supes is. BTW, I'd recommend "I Didn't Know" as a fic you might start with.

It's a work in progress. I'd appreciate it if you left a comment/critique:'

http://www.fanfiction.net/s/9024322/1/I-Didn-t-Know

Tobias,this is what you said about Henry previously on this site...

It's a shame the rush in which WB was forced to assemble a court-ordered Superman film prevented the studio from doing the normally months-long search for the best lead actor in a mega-film such as MOS. Defaulting to one of the runner-up actors from previous attempts is iffy/risky. But it is what it is.

????????

 

[Tobias]

Tobias,this is what you said about Henry previously on this site...



????????

If you read my recent posts I acknowledged I was not happy with Henry at first but he totally won me over in his appearance at ComiCon - The Immortals panel and a clip of him with his fans outside a restaurant in LA. He spent quality time with all of them.

He's a classy guy and, as I recently posted, he was an inspired choice.

Didn't like dropping the trunks at first either but I love Henry as Supes and I love the suit. I love everything I am seeing about this film.

And yes, I did a total 180 on Henry being cast as Superman.

Check out the Henry Cavill is Superman thread - I posted some very complimentary comments about him there just a week ago.

I'm human and yes at times I change my mind about things. Henry was one of those changes.

 

[Skrilla31]

I honestly don't understand why anyone would compare MOS with Superman Returns. Most of the GA are comparing it to Avengers, TDK trilogy or even Transformers (for the action). But it makes sense that people would rather have a low estimate and the actual value is higher than the other way around.

If you've ever followed my posts, you'd see I have very high expectations for this film. I think it's going to be mega hit, the question is just how much.

But I will concede that Superman Returns is a problem. A small problem, but a problem nonetheless. That is the only hurdle this movie has to overcome, and from the looks of it... it doesn't look like anyone is even THINKING about Superman Returns in regard to Man Of Steel.

But can you imagine if Superman Returns had never existed? And this were the true return to the big screen after all these years? I'd say it would go on to beat Iron Man 3 with ease.

 

[Tobias]

If you've ever followed my posts, you'd see I have very high expectations for this film. I think it's going to be mega hit, the question is just how much.

But I will concede that Superman Returns is a problem. A small problem, but a problem nonetheless. That is the only hurdle this movie has to overcome, and from the looks of it... it doesn't look like anyone is even THINKING about Superman Returns in regard to Man Of Steel.

But can you imagine if Superman Returns had never existed? And this were the true return to the big screen after all these years? I'd say it would go on to beat Iron Man 3 with ease.

More generally what was needed in 2006 was to move the character forward. Ratner would have done that - his proposed film has a lot of the feel of MOS to it. Epic. But he was afraid to fly and that was that.

At a time when Batman and Spiderman were moving forward in terms of film adaptions Superman moved back 20 plus years. Trying to re-capture the magic. But, like your first date, you can never really re-capture the magic.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

The fact that most the people I know are happy about the movie due to Nolan's name, lack of trunks and that his hair has no curl (odd I know but still).
In fact if you go to the Superman Returns trailer a majority of the comments are "MOS trailer > Superman Returns movie".
As far as I'm concerned (feel free to disagree), below $700 mill will be a very big disappointment. I'd be most comfortable with $800 million. Above that is optimistic (not impossible).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Seriously? Well, you will be really, really wrong.

Seriously? I predicted the movie to be a big hit and you are acting like a smug no good for nothing because I'm not predicting Avengers numbers.

 

[JayJustROTFL]

As far as I'm concerned (feel free to disagree), below $700 mill will be a very big disappointment. I'd be most comfortable with $800 million. Above that is optimistic (not impossible).

I think exactly the same. Below $700 mill for the fans would be a disappointment, and im sure the suits will be thinking the same.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I think exactly the same. Below $700 mill for the fans would be a disappointment, and im sure the suits will be thinking the same.

It also would not make ANY sense and I would be spending the rest of my summer wondering how it could have happened. I really don't want that.

 

[Tobias]

I think exactly the same. Below $700 mill for the fans would be a disappointment, and im sure the suits will be thinking the same.

As far as we know the suits are looking for a 600 million WW BO to go ahead with JL. That is based on something Goyer said.

Personally I think if MOS does a little less, say 580 million WW but the reviews are solid and WOM good they will bite the bullet and go ahead with a JL film.

700 or less may disappoint fans but I don't believe that is the drop-dead point for WB. None of the general movie sites are predicting anything like that number as far as I know.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

As far as we know the suits are looking for a 600 million WW BO to go ahead with JL. That is based on something Goyer said.

Personally I think if MOS does a little less, say 580 million WW but the reviews are solid and WOM good they will bite the bullet and go ahead with a JL film.

700 or less may disappoint fans but I don't believe that is the drop-dead point for WB. None of the general movie sites are predicting anything like that number as far as I know.

Really? Movie sites think $700 million is a stretch?
I'm done.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Fanboys think that under a billion is a bomb for this film. 600mil is a great number, certainly I hope it does even better but 600mil is in no way bad.

 

[Tobias]

Really? Movie sites think $700 million is a stretch?
I'm done.

The problem is to get these mega numbers - 700 million and above - you need a huge OS box. As you've read on these boards WB is not heavily promoting MOS OS. Especially in Asia where markets like Japan, SK and China can produce 100 - 150 million in OS box receipts.

TASM did only 260 million US but did over 700 million WW because of the OS's market.

Why WB is being passive about promoting MOS OS I haven't the faintest. But when you are pondering why it didn't do 700 million I think the answer may largely rest with WB and its OS marketing.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

The problem is to get these mega numbers - 700 million and above - you need a huge OS box. As you've read on these boards WB is not heavily promoting MOS OS. Especially in Asia where markets like Japan, SK and China can produce 100 - 150 million in OS box receipts.

TASM did only 260 million US but did over 700 million WW because of the OS's market.

Why WB is being passive about promoting MOS OS I haven't the faintest. But when you are pondering why it didn't do 700 million I think the answer may largely rest with WB and its OS marketing.

If they are honestly not bothering with Asia they wouldn't even bother with the movie. At all. They would not spend all of this money on a Superman movie without promoting it properly OS. And as for people in Asia not knowing its going to be out, just remember that not even 1/4 of the US watched the Avengers.

 

[Greeneyes]

The problem is to get these mega numbers - 700 million and above - you need a huge OS box. As you've read on these boards WB is not heavily promoting MOS OS. Especially in Asia where markets like Japan, SK and China can produce 100 - 150 million in OS box receipts.

TASM did only 260 million US but did over 700 million WW because of the OS's market.

Why WB is being passive about promoting MOS OS I haven't the faintest. But when you are pondering why it didn't do 700 million I think the answer may largely rest with WB and its OS marketing.

Why it didn't do 700million? You talk as though you have seen the future Tobias. You seem very sure it definitely wont do 700 million?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Why it didn't do 700million? You talk as though you have seen the future Tobias. You seem very sure it definitely wont do 700 million?

It's due to their disappointment over SR.
It's going to do well in North, South America and Europe (IMO).

 

[Greeneyes]

Here are two of Tobias's previous comments about MOS box office...

I think Superman is not too viable anymore and that what SR made is about as good as any Superman film can do. He's one of the most well-known characters but not one of the most popular. You can lead a horse to water but you can't force the horse to drink.

Nolan's name attached should be worth something. Just pulling out a figure - say 20 million.

Based on SR then, I'd expect to see MOS do about 411 million WW.

The bad thing is the poorer MOS does the less likely WB is to move quickly forward with another DC franchise.

In any event, WB had already decided to shelve Superman films because they are not financially feasible. No one seems to be expecting much from MOS. Maybe 400 million? When it costs 200 million to make and maybe 100 million to market that is a bad investment.

Any thoughts Tobias?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Here are two of Tobias's previous comments about MOS box office...





Any thoughts Tobias?