Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Pickle-El]

And if it's good then it should be 120 million

But seriously, opening weekend is actually not that big of a deal.
Look at Avatar.

What will help MOS is that schools will be out just in time for the flick. Meaning that if it does have a 100+plus opening with good WOM....watch out.

Weekday performance is much stronger during the summer season. And MOS will be the first event-film of the summer. WOM will make Man of Steel a solid success (250 Million) or a huge blockbuster (325+).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Opening weekends are still a very big deal. Especially in the summer. Christmas is a different beast, where legs are the norm for big films.

 

[Juha Bach]

Checking out boxoffice.com it seems their track record leaves a lot to be desired.

108 predicted for F&F and it got 122 and 72 predicted for Hangover and it got 52. I think you can take their other predictions including that for MOS with a grain of salt.

Shawn who wrote the article about MOS above even tweeted if what happened with Hangover happens with MOS it could be screwed or it could make 400 million. Clearly she is admitting the huge error range in her/boxoffice.com's predictions. She probably didn't mean to tweet that but that is all you need to know IMO.

My point is these so-called tracking experts have no accuarate methodology. As we saw with F&F and Hangover this weekend. I'm trying to find what they predicticted fro STID but their site is hard to navigate. I'd like a list of their predictions followed by actuals but they don't make it so easy. Boxoffice.com just lost all credibility with me after seeing this. They may be fun to read but don't pin your hopes on what they say.

This is not about tracking. Weren't you claiming that MoS FB likes is too low and thus performing poorly in the social media and will affect the Box office outcome? That article by Box office.com shows the exact opposite. Those social media number are not guess work but real data from FB and twitter. People are entitled to be pessimistic. Thats ok. But in your case, i get the vibe that you want this movie to fail under the guise that you are pessimist.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

What will help MOS is that schools will be out just in time for the flick. Meaning that if it does have a 100+plus opening with good WOM....watch out.

Weekday performance is much stronger during the summer season. And MOS will be the first event-film of the summer. WOM will make Man of Steel a solid success (250 Million) or a huge blockbuster (325+).

That's what I meant by other movies not doing well if it doesn't do well. It has a similar number of trailer views as The Dark Knight Rises & Nolan's name involved.
Yes the Nolan effect is real, I often see the comments "OMG Chris Nolan, I so have to see this." Hopefully Snyder gets credit as well if the movie does well
Plus a majority of the people wanting to watch it don't seem to be Superman fans (some claim to hate the character yet want to watch the movie).

 

[Tobias]

This is not about tracking. Weren't you claiming that MoS FB likes is too low and thus performing poorly in the social media and will affect the Box office outcome? That article by Box office.com shows the exact opposite. Those social media number are not guess work but real data from FB and twitter. People are entitled to be pessimistic. Thats ok. But in your case, i get the vibe that you want this movie to fail under the guise that you are pessimist.

No, aside from FB likes, MOS is doing decent with social media. I in fact said if FB likes can increase over these final weeks to 850K or so I will up my 550 WW prediction. It's the increase over these coming weeks in likes which will indicate if something is going on at the "grassroots".

The film looks incredible. This is the film we needed in 2006. Henry is everything I could have asked for in the actor chosen to play Supes. I want it to succeed but in a way, yes, I am a pessimist. I was literally sick for a day or two after SR came out because of the numbers. I was so sure it would blow the BO away. Not going down that path again.

Go read my Supes fic on fanfiction.net and tell me I am not a fan. It takes, for me anyway, a lot of effort to write good stories but I am willing to do that if it is a good cause. And Supes is. BTW, I'd recommend "I Didn't Know" as a fic you might start with.

It's a work in progress. I'd appreciate it if you left a comment/critique:'

http://www.fanfiction.net/s/9024322/1/I-Didn-t-Know

 

[Pickle-El]

That's what I meant by other movies not doing well if it doesn't do well. It has a similar number of trailer views as The Dark Knight Rises & Nolan's name involved.
Yes the Nolan effect is real, I often see the comments "OMG Chris Nolan, I so have to see this." Hopefully Snyder gets credit as well if the movie does well
Plus a majority of the people wanting to watch it don't seem to be Superman fans (some claim to hate the character yet want to watch the movie).

That right there shows that the marketing has been stellar. I have read that comment countless times already as well. People are conditioning themselves to give the film a real shot that otherwise would have not. This whole "I can't relate to Superman" line is the entire point of the trailer roll-out they way it happened. Focus on the "Man" first and get the audience to emotionally respond.

Now, May-June 14, you get the action. It really is a genius scheme.

 

[Tobias]

That right there shows that the marketing has been stellar. I have read that comment countless times already as well. People are conditioning themselves to give the film a real shot that otherwise would have not. This whole "I can't relate to Superman" line is the entire point of the trailer roll-out they way it happened. Focus on the "Man" first and get the audience to emotionally respond.

Now, May-June 14, you get the action. It really is a genius scheme.

I had to pick up a prescription the other day at CVS. There were Soap Opera books and others at the pick-up site. Amy Adams was on a cover. I told the female pharmacist that i really like Amy Adams and am looking forward to her in MOS. The pharmacist knew what I was talking about. I then switched to Henry being the star and she knew of and loves Henry. Promoted the film - sounds like she is going to go to see it. Because of Amy of course - LOL!

BTW, I think it was a conscious decision not to use Superman in the title for obvious reasons. I am not sure the name is even going to be used in the film.

 

[MrMaooz]

I had to pick up a prescription the other day at CVS. There were Soap Opera books and others at the pick-up site. Amy Adams was on a cover. I told the female pharmacist that i really like Amy Adams and am looking forward to her in MOS. The pharmacist knew what I was talking about. I then switched to Henry being the star and she knew of and loves Henry. Promoted the film - sounds like she is going to go to see it. Because of Amy of course - LOL!

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I had to pick up a prescription the other day at CVS. There were Soap Opera books and others at the pick-up site. Amy Adams was on a cover. I told the female pharmacist that i really like Amy Adams and am looking forward to her in MOS. The pharmacist knew what I was talking about. I then switched to Henry being the star and she knew of and loves Henry. Promoted the film - sounds like she is going to go to see it. Because of Amy of course - LOL!

BTW, I think it was a conscious decision not to use Superman in the title for obvious reasons. I am not sure the name is even going to be used in the film.

I also like how they made it clear in trailer #3 that the shield is not an "S" for Superman
Oh how cocky he must have looked to the GA previously

Edit: I honestly don't understand how people thought Superman Returns was going to be a good movie (based on the trailer - which pretty much gave away the plot).

 

[Liam_H]

Its very easy to pick on Superman Returns now.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Its very easy to pick on Superman Returns now.

It always was

 

[Tobias]

I also like how they made it clear in trailer #3 that the shield is not an "S" for Superman
Oh how cocky he must have looked to the GA previously

Edit: I honestly don't understand how people thought Superman Returns was going to be a good movie (based on the trailer - which pretty much gave away the plot).

Too, as much as I love the classic suit with the trunks, it was time to move on.

As much as I loved reeve's performance, it was time to move on from a single "look" for Superman.

The significance of the suit change is key IMO to moving forward. So too no kryptonite - for this film anyway.

Superman has been held back in ways batman and other superhero comic characters have not.

Finally he is allowed to grow.

Too little too late, or not?

Based on bo's prediction and track record this could open anywhere from a 70OW to a 154 OW. A total bomb or the biggest surprise of the year. Or anywhere in-between.

This is the hardest film to get a handle on this year and no one will really know till 06/16 when the final weekend numbers come out.

 

[Marvin]

I never understood why people used Scott Pilgrim or Snakes On A Plane as examples of strong online presence and terrible box office return. Sure, some people might have been excited for their fav comic come to life or a new Sam Jackson f-filled flick....but, did these ever have year-long unveilings or 4-quadrant anticipation at any point?

You can only go by big movies that had high anticipation and lived up to it. (Avengers for example) and big movies with high expectations that didn't. (John Carter).

And even John Carter did 300 million total with a terrible 30 million dollar opening in the US.

In another universe similar to ours(for arguments sake), if you were to put a poll up on the cover of this site that said which film are you most excited for Pilgrim, Titanic, Pirates 4 and Shawshank.
Pilgrim would no doubt take the spot in spite of it no doubt performing the worst.

You make a good point, however mine is simply that some films appeal to online communities in a very intimate way.

Another example is if you held a poll at a local day care center polling interest in a dora movie vs Titanic, it would be just as deceiving. Online polls no matter how broad they may claim to be, always fall into this trap on some level.

Old couples simply don't open up a web page and represent their demographic in the Titanic section. That's the point I'm making. I'm not talking about the "snakes failed despite how much buzz it had" line of thinking.

 

[Notrip]

Since when does facebook likes have ANY thing to do with Box-office, it doesn't. But since we are talking facebook lets clarify - Avengers, at the time of release, barely had over 1 million likes. Box-office.com has Hangover and Fast and Furious facebook likes very high, because they combine all the movies 1/2/3 and 1-6 together. They did this with Dark Knight last year. The actual Dark Knight Rises number was not even above 1 million last year cuz I followed that. Anyway, anyone who says tracking is BELOW 100 million is off, cuz there is NO tracking under 100 million (I have seen some websites predictions a little under 100, but that was about a month ago and their guess is just like ours, a guess). Anyone who is saying it could do what Hangover III did, well HAHAHAHA. There is a reason that movie did, well, crappy.
There ya go, Man of Steel does over 100 OW and around 300ish Domestic. OS is a different ballgame. However, you cannot compare SR OS box office, because of the international boom and the 3D craze OS. Still saying I think 110-130 OW and close to if not above 360ish Domestic.

 

[GreenKToo]

sorry, but i'm convinced this does north of 100 mill ow ( 110/115 to be precise )
I too predicted a big opening for SR, but this isnt SR, and thankfully WB has gotten the word out that it isn't.
Nolan,
snyder,
the cast,
the visuals,
the action,
the score,
= a big OW.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Its very easy to pick on Superman Returns now.

Speaking of that i brought this up in another thread but has anyone heard if brandon routh has made any comments on cavil or the new film?

I know he was still really gung-ho to stay on as superman in a returns sequel even after that looked unlikely.

 

[Tobias]

Speaking of that i brought this up in another thread but has anyone heard if brandon routh has made any comments on cavil or the new film?

I know he was still really gung-ho to stay on as superman in a returns sequel even after that looked unlikely.

And speaking of that and given there is quite an alumni of Supes actors now I wonder if Routh, Welling, Cain, Christopher and Newton will be invited to the premier in LA - all 5 of them live in LA.. I recall with SR that Cain and Christopher were at the premier. Not sure of the others.

 

[Marvin]

I think he could have been interesting in a snyder superman. All except for the gruff bearded buff crab sailor stuff...and a few other things.

a shame things it turned out that way. Looking at the bright side.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Since when does facebook likes have ANY thing to do with Box-office, it doesn't. But since we are talking facebook lets clarify - Avengers, at the time of release, barely had over 1 million likes. Box-office.com has Hangover and Fast and Furious facebook likes very high, because they combine all the movies 1/2/3 and 1-6 together. They did this with Dark Knight last year. The actual Dark Knight Rises number was not even above 1 million last year cuz I followed that. Anyway, anyone who says tracking is BELOW 100 million is off, cuz there is NO tracking under 100 million (I have seen some websites predictions a little under 100, but that was about a month ago and their guess is just like ours, a guess). Anyone who is saying it could do what Hangover III did, well HAHAHAHA. There is a reason that movie did, well, crappy.
There ya go, Man of Steel does over 100 OW and around 300ish Domestic. OS is a different ballgame. However, you cannot compare SR OS box office, because of the international boom and the 3D craze OS. Still saying I think 110-130 OW and close to if not above 360ish Domestic.

This.

 

[db85usa]

Well, Box Office updated their long range forecast for MoS to $112 Million for the OW and $340 Million domestic. (I'm sure many of you are aware of that update,) But yet, they project $76 Million OW for Despicable Me 2 and $353 Million domestic. Really? A 4.6+ multiplier? No way that happens. If anything, it'll open biggger than $76 Million IMO. Back on topic, for MoS -- I think anything above $100 million is a success for a reboot. I mean, that's higher than Batman Begins and Amazing Spiderman. If it grosses above $100 million, it should easily end up with $300+ domestic and $450-$500 foreign. IMO this would be huge and would greenlight a Batman/Superman film or even a JL film.

On the other hand, MoS could open even bigger. I still think MoS scores $130-$140 million for the OW and ends up with $400+ domestic and $550 million overseas. MoS will come very close to a billion and might just squeeze by ala The Dark Knight.

I can't wait for June 14th. Guys and girls, May is almost OVER!!!

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Well, Box Office updated their long range forecast for MoS to $112 Million for the OW and $340 Million domestic. (I'm sure many of you are aware of that update,) But yet, they project $76 Million OW for Despicable Me 2 and $353 Million domestic. Really? A 4.6+ multiplier? No way that happens. If anything, it'll open biggger than $76 Million IMO. Back on topic, for MoS -- I think anything above $100 million is a success for a reboot. I mean, that's higher than Batman Begins and Amazing Spiderman. If it grosses above $100 million, it should easily end up with $300+ domestic and $450-$500 foreign. IMO this would be huge and would greenlight a Batman/Superman film or even a JL film.

On the other hand, MoS could open even bigger. I still think MoS scores $130-$140 million for the OW and ends up with $400+ domestic and $550 million overseas. MoS will come very close to a billion and might just squeeze by ala The Dark Knight.

I can't wait for June 14th. Guys and girls, May is almost OVER!!!

I think the only thing at this point that can derail this MOS runaway locomotive as it makes the final turn into the station, would be the critics. It can't be much longer (perhaps 7-10 days) until we get the first legitimate reviews. If it gets reviewed as well as The Avengers, and WB uses those quotes, then imo MOS will likely explode beyond most people's expectations at the B.O. on OW. If most or some of the more notable tracking companies start revising their estimates up in the next couple of weeks, that will speak volumes in my book.

 

[Iceman]

Well, Box Office updated their long range forecast for MoS to $112 Million for the OW and $340 Million domestic. (I'm sure many of you are aware of that update,) But yet, they project $76 Million OW for Despicable Me 2 and $353 Million domestic. Really? A 4.6+ multiplier? No way that happens. If anything, it'll open biggger than $76 Million IMO. Back on topic, for MoS -- I think anything above $100 million is a success for a reboot. I mean, that's higher than Batman Begins and Amazing Spiderman. If it grosses above $100 million, it should easily end up with $300+ domestic and $450-$500 foreign. IMO this would be huge and would greenlight a Batman/Superman film or even a JL film.

On the other hand, MoS could open even bigger. I still think MoS scores $130-$140 million for the OW and ends up with $400+ domestic and $550 million overseas. MoS will come very close to a billion and might just squeeze by ala The Dark Knight.

I can't wait for June 14th. Guys and girls, May is almost OVER!!!

MoS will be great. I want $1B & it's possible if it really catches on fire but I'll be happy with 100m OW, 300m dom & 800m worldwide.

Btw for kid films those kind of multipliers are not crazy. They open relatively weak and have great legs.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think people are too focused on opening weekend, legs do matter as well so the movie does not need to break opening weekend records. I'm still not at 100mil because of the release date. Even with all the comp it had to go up against, Trek 2 had a decent drop this weekend because despite nerd rage the word of mouth is not bad.

I will say that opening lower than 85mil would be surprising at this point.

 

[KingKane88]

This is one movie that is very difficult to figure out for me. There are so many variables to consider, and the fact that I want is to blow away everything in its path, is something that is really messing with my mind. I'm just not sure how many people are aware of MOS just yet? I say this because I live literally 20min from Plano (Chicago land area), and the only marketing I have seen so far has been at WalMart, and thay are just sloppy as all he11 with promoting this film, as we all have figured out! When I got my tickets the first girl I asked in the electronic section had NO clue what I was talking about, even though there was a huge cardboard sign right infront of her promoting the tickets!

I am a huge hockey fan, been recording most of the Playoff games as well as watching live, i watch a decent amount of TV (mainly History,Discovery stuff), and have yet to see a MOS TV spot, and this worries me. The only comfort I get is from you guys telling me they are all over the place, maybe I'm just unlucky??? IDK.

I predict 82-Mill OW, just my gut here.

BTW, while at my restaurant today, a guy walked in and seen I was wearing my Superman Apron, he asked me if I was going to see the new MOS movie (which got me happy that he knew about it), I laughed and said "are you really asking me that? C'mon?". We had a laugh, then he said "Dude I'm gonna see the movie atleast 4 times!", then he asked if I wanted to go together with him and his woman to the IMAX at Navy Pier, I told him why not at Sups fans. My woman was listening in standing next to me and said "Huney wow, I never knew others like you existed around here!". We all had a laugh and that was that. BTW the guy told me they showed the Fate of you Planet trailer with HO3 last night, said it blew his mind!

I was just happy to see there are other as excited as I am around my neck of the woods, a good feeling indeed, and makes me think MOS just may do better then I expect. I still feel it will hit 700-Mill WW, I just feel it will start off a bit slower then the average blockbuster and through WOM grow gargantuan legs like we never expected.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm actually at 90-92mil right now with a 280-290mil finish.

International numbers are difficult to predict but I'm coming down with 325mil now. Those are my updated predictions.

Obviously I'm a fangirl and if the movie is as good as it looks I hope it overshoots my predictions by a mile. So I want to be really, really wrong.