Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Marvin]

2.65 I think is what people were using as a "typical" multiplier for a summer blockbuster. It takes a truly special movie like TA or TDK to exceed 3.0, at that level.

should use a multiplier 143.0.
again, the run time.

 

[sf2]

Feel sorry for australian n new zealand.

 

[jmc]

Feel sorry for australian n new zealand.

Price we pay for getting Star Trek and Iron Man a week earlier.

 

[Llama_Shepherd]

Price we pay for getting Star Trek and Iron Man a week earlier.

In the UK all 3 were early

 

[combocaz]

Im really keen to see how well it does in china.

 

[UrNuts2]

Im really keen to see how well it does in china.

& India, Russia, Japan .. also Europe .. hope it pushes records like in UK

 

[BigThor]

Eh, if I don't like a film and want it to fail I at least have the lady balls to admit it. I hate when others just don't admit the truth.

Not admitting it makes it more irritating, I hate when people try to weasel out of what everyone already sees.

 

[rayc1971]

I think wb will be happy with 300mill domestic and 300mill overseas 600 to 700 worldwide it doesn't need to do a billion the spidey reboot only did in the 700ww range and got a sequel

 

[rashad]

via Rth of the BO forums

MOS Sat atm going to go with 34-37m

 

[Liam_H]

Still early so it could change but a bit lower than what I had thought.

 

[mclay18]

Very happy with the movie and the box office results. The movie is far from perfect, but I thought it was better than what the critics and some of the audience members say it was.

Anything about $300M domestic/$650M worldwide will be gravy for WB.

 

[DorneyDave]

Is there any history of films doing historically better on Father's day?

Never looked into that.

 

[Liam_H]

What do you mean doing better? As in increasing from Saturday? Usually the holds are good/great.

 

[DorneyDave]

Yeah, that's what I meant. Strong holds or even upticks from Saturday from people trying to find stuff to do with Dad.

 

[kalhawj]

Came back an hour ago from my third viewing. Can't wait to see it again next Friday and Saturday.

I like your way of thinking... you are a true hard core fan... IF anything if all fans of Superman or DC use 10% of their check and see the movie as many times as you can... It makes history...

 

[Liam_H]

The most recent opening I can think of that's comparable is Green Lantern where it only dropped ~10% on Sunday. Obviously WOM on MoS is a lot better however its opening is a lot bigger so its hold might not be as good.

Toy Story 3 dropped around 13% but thats a kids film so not a good one.

Basically the Sunday drop should be around 10-15%. The lack of big openings in June is also a problem.

 

[Marvin]

IM opened to 98 mill and went on to about 300 domestic(in a bad summer).
I don't see how 300 plus domestic doesn't happen here.

I also suspect overseas will be really strong, especially looking at the competition next week.

 

[Liam_H]

It should considering this isn't a sequel or part of an existing franchise.

 

[Tony Stark]

IM opened to 98 mill and went on to about 300 domestic(in a bad summer).
I don't see how 300 plus domestic doesn't happen here.

I also suspect overseas will be really strong, especially looking at the competition next week.

All depends on the legs, but 300 is definitely on the table.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

$300 Million is not out of the realm of possibility at this point, but all it really needs is strong legs.

 

[Liam_H]

Aside from how I feel about the movie this is getting good WOM so there shouldn't be any reason it won't reach there.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Eh, I'm just going to wait for the weekend numbers tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised with a 15-20% drop from friday numbers but then the Sunday drop becomes important then.

 

[Bruce Malone]

So how big a threat is WWZ to MOS? Assuming audiences take to that film favorably? They seem to be gunning for almost the exact same demos.

 

[sf2]

I think wb will be happy with 300mill domestic and 300mill overseas 600 to 700 worldwide it doesn't need to do a billion the spidey reboot only did in the 700ww range and got a sequel

Can't wait to hear the announcement of who gonna be the villains.

 

[mclay18]

So how big a threat is WWZ to MOS? Assuming audiences take to that film favorably? They seem to be gunning for almost the exact same demos.

The buzz is pretty good on WWZ, but we'll have to see whether it translates to big numbers for Paramount. If it gets higher than $40M opening weekend, I'd be surprised.

And if MOS drops to $55M-$60M in its second weekend (with the intense competition), $300M domestic is a lock.