Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Frodo]

MoS, to survive the critical beating it got.
Not many films could do that, it had to be the brand/names and fun that I knew it would have.

Even if the fanboys and critics have issues with it , the GA , which is what will make or break the film , loves it.

 

[Pickle-El]

TDKR 448 million

Excuse me...

 

[macphisto96]

It will not catch Iron Man 3. It will not have Avatar legs. It will hit around 172m Thursday. Around 222 on Sunday and end its run over 300 million domestic. I am guessing 335m domestic.

Agreed partially. The hold dictates where it finishes. It's also worthwhile considering that we may see a slight surge or no drop during July 4 week. It should be at around $220M at the least by the end of Sunday with a top end of $235Mish. It likely will pull over $20M next week and around $30M for week 3.

My guess is that it will be at $320M after July 4 weekend, might be as high as $340M. Not likely to clear $400M, but we'll have to see the legs.

Even so, the trajectory right now indicates a $500M or better foreign box office - so the chances of it clearly $800M total are VERY good with an outside shot at $900M. Doubt it gets to $1B, but I think WB was just hoping to get to $600-700M.

The Monday take is impressive. The IMDB and RT audience ratings are solid too. While the percentage of people that liked Iron Man 3 is about the same as Man Of Steel, the average rating is higher (4.2 instead of IM3's 4.0). So the multiplier will likely be higher. IM3 dropped 58.4% in week 2. Man Of Steel dropped 65.2% from Sunday to Monday versus IM3's 73.8%. That indicates that we might see a 50% drop or better next weekend when you look at the relation of the Monday drop to other blockbusters.

If that holds then next weekend would be $65M. That could put the movie at $238M after Sunday and on the path to a 3x multiplier ($384M for domestic run).

We'll know a lot more a week from now. A 50% drop or better will indicate legs.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

It will not catch Iron Man 3. It will not have Avatar legs. It will hit around 172m Thursday. Around 222 on Sunday and end its run over 300 million domestic. I am guessing 335m domestic.

How about foreign/overall?

 

[TheNextNolan22]

How about foreign/overall?

If it does about does more than it did in the territories its opened in so far, it's going to make at least over $500 million.

 

[Liam_H]

Again its not to accurate to compare MoS with IM3 because May does not equal June. IM3 is suppose to drop harder on Monday than MoS while a 2nd weekend drop is suppose to be lighter, but then that's a wash since IM3 opened so much higher. And as for overall weekend multiplier MoS should be greater considering smaller OW weekend and not being a sequel.

Wow, pretty surprised by that actually. I thought it would stop at 340.

Lol, it could've had SM3 reception and still flown by this number.

 

[kedrell]

I think it'll be in the high $160M's going into this weekend and then be at about the low $210M's after the weekend heading toward a $275-$300M DOM cume'. OS, I'm still not sure yet. Haven't checked the current figures.

 

[kedrell]

Wow, pretty surprised by that actually. I thought it would stop at 340.

With a $174M OW, it would need a worse multiplier than even Anghulk for that to have happened. You're talking less than a 2X.

 

[db85usa]

It's very early to project what kind of multiplier MoS will have. The standard I guess could be 2.5 which would be close to $300 Mil DOM. Most have said $300 + million -- I think WW it'll end up on or around $800 million if not more which would be enough to warrant an immediate sequel ala ASM 2.

 

[Tra-El]

It's very early to project what kind of multiplier MoS will have. The standard I guess could be 2.5 which would be close to $300 Mil DOM. Most have said $300 + million -- I think WW it'll end up on or around $800 million if not more which would be enough to warrant an immediate sequel ala ASM 2.

I've heard through video interviews that WB is fast tracking a sequel as early as 2014. Crazy. Get ready for your Worlds Finest set-up!

 

[Marvin]

With a $174M OW, it would need a worse multiplier than even Anghulk for that to have happened. You're talking less than a 2X.

This was my guess before may.
After OW I figured 380 or so, mainly cause it seemed pretty devisive, and the spectacle repetitive in that threequel sort of way.

Good for them though, I'm curious to see what happens with the lesser marvel titles(which it seems is all they have at this point). Time to really bring the quality.

 

[Marvin]

This place last week

Spoiler

 

[TheNextNolan22]

This place last week

Spoiler

 

[Liam_H]

That was only to people who were afraid this wasn't going to touch $150 million OW.

 

[db85usa]

This place last week

Spoiler

That about sums it up, lol

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I've heard through video interviews that WB is fast tracking a sequel as early as 2014. Crazy. Get ready for your Worlds Finest set-up!

Yeah I posted that quote from the WSJ here not too long ago. I think it might be a dud. There's no way a 2014 release is possible.

If that's true, then that really plays to the JL in 2015 rumor.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Won't happen. Cavill, Shannon, and Adams are filming new movies soon so there's no way it comes out next year.

 

[Liam_H]

So Zod is still alive?

 

[rayc1971]

BTW MOS did better on Monday after it's weekend release than Iron man 3. If MOS can keep this up it has a chance to catch up to Iron man's BO number. It may even beat it out for total earning including International. Time will tell.

Iron man Monday total: $11,267,610
Man of Steel Monday Total: $13,000,000

its not going to beat iron man3 that movie had a bigger opening weekend you fail to mention that.this movie will be fine with anything over 300mill domestic its not doing 400mill domestic calm down people getting crazy with the numbers up in here

 

[UrNuts2]

If it does about does more than it did in the territories its opened in so far, it's going to make at least over $500 million.

just wondering what some of you guys are basing the 500m overseas figure on ? aside from the fact that it collected 72m over weekend in 24 markets .. serious question

 

[TheNextNolan22]

just wondering what some of you guys are basing the 500m overseas figure on ? aside from the fact that it collected 72m over weekend in 24 markets .. serious question

I forgot the exact article, but Box Office Mojo is saying that if next weekend we see the same kind of openings in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, China, and Russia or better, the international growth could be above $500mil. If it does, that would put the film at at least $250 million domestic.

Key words: COULD and IF.

 

[UrNuts2]

I forgot the exact article, but Box Office Mojo is saying that if next weekend we see the same kind of openings in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, China, and Russia or better, the international growth could be above $500mil. If it does, that would put the film at at least $250 million domestic.

Key words: COULD and IF.

gotcha, u mean $250 INT ?

 

[TheNextNolan22]

gotcha, u mean $250 INT ?

Here's the article for a better explanation than I could give haha:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3693&p=.htm

 

[Princess Denise]

Apparently, MOS is #14 on the list of all time biggest non-holiday Mondays:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/nonholiday.htm

Not Bad!

 

[UrNuts2]

Here's the article for a better explanation than I could give haha:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3693&p=.htm

yep, i actually just found that article myself before returning to this thread .. thx anyways .. kinda makes sense though; i didn't know that in the 24 overseas markets MoS opened in, only 3 of those are considered major markets ..

like you said COULD & IF .. but if it does, we might be looking north of $400m ww for a 10 day cume ?