Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Nicko-Ray]

Like everyone here, I'd be pretty dissapointed if MOS takes the #2 spot after this weekend. Maybe even lower. Who knows.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

FWIW, the poster "Rth" at BoxOffice.com is saying it appears to be headed for a drop in the low 60's today, which would be great. That would give it around $13.5m for Monday. He has access to the actual data coming in and has been way more reliable than anyone else giving early box office numbers.

Nice! And I personally wouldn't be disappointed if it dropped to #2. I would be disappointed if it dropped and made anything under $50 million.

 

[redfirebird2008]

It wouldn't surprise me if it drops to #3 next weekend. A sequel to a beloved Pixar movie is locked to be #1 for the weekend. A heavily advertised doomsday movie starring Brad Pitt is bound to open pretty big as well. MOS could make $50m on the weekend and still finish 3rd.

 

[Liam_H]

A low 60% drop is really good considering the Sunday hold.

 

[kedrell]

It wouldn't surprise me if it drops to #3 next weekend. A sequel to a beloved Pixar movie is locked to be #1 for the weekend. A heavily advertised doomsday movie starring Brad Pitt is bound to open pretty big as well. MOS could make $50m on the weekend and still finish 3rd.

Exactly. People need to realize that this film has maybe a 10% chance of staying on top next weekend. It just ain't gonna happen.

 

[sf2]

A low 60% drop is really good considering the Sunday hold.

yup. Monday is working day!

 

[redfirebird2008]

Exactly. People need to realize that this film has maybe a 10% chance of staying on top next weekend. It just ain't gonna happen.

What I don't get is why Hollywood always cannibalizes each other. Each studio spends hundreds of millions of dollars producing and marketing these summer movies, and then they kill each other by releasing them right on top of one another week after week. Mid-May to the end of May this year was ridiculous.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Man but WWZ looks so boring and unoriginal haha

 

[Liam_H]

But Brad Pitt is still so pretty.

 

[kedrell]

What I don't get is why Hollywood always cannibalizes each other. Each studio spends hundreds of millions of dollars producing and marketing these summer movies, and then they kill each other by releasing them right on top of one another week after week. Mid-May to the end of May this year was ridiculous.

They're competitors. Looking out for each other doesn't even enter into their minds.

 

[kedrell]

But Brad Pitt is still so pretty.

And he has one of the best track records of picking good projects to get involved in.

 

[danoyse]

But Brad Pitt is still so pretty.

And it's got zombies.

 

[Ultimatehero]

And he has one of the best track records of picking good projects to get involved in.

Quality wise, but not financial-wise.

One thing that I've found is that outside of two of his films (Ocean's Eleven & Mr. and Mrs. Smith which both only got 180-186 mil) he's only brought in around the 140 mil range overall domestically with his highest weekend ever being 50 mil. I see him getting higher possibly this time around, but only a quarter higher rather than doubling what he always makes.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

But Brad Pitt is still so pretty.

That's the main reason why I know it's gonna make a decent amount.

And it's got zombies.

I guess. It just looks like I Am Legend to me. Or a form of it. I'm just being ignorant.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Quality wise, but not financial-wise.

One thing that I've found is that outside of two of his films (Ocean's Eleven & Mr. and Mrs. Smith which both only got 180-186 mil) he's only brought in around the 140 mil range overall domestically with his highest weekend ever being 50 mil.

I could have sworn his biggest opening was $60 million? Unless I'm thinking about someone else?

 

[Ultimatehero]

Nope.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people...bradpitt.htm&sort=opengross&order=DESC&p=.htm

Unless that number is Mr & Mrs Smith with inflation.

Also just looking at that other than Megamind, all the rest of his movies actually come in under 133 mil.

It's going to make money and it would have been successful if they didn't balloon the budget somehow, but I really don't see him doubling what he always gets out of the blue like this and when competing against MOS. I'm seeing around 200 mil domestic (which for him would be a good number) with 230 being best case scenario (I am Legend only brought in 260 and that had Will Smith).

 

[DanSupKP37]

Where it places is not a big deal next weekend... MOS should be at about 170 mil heading into the weekend and make around 45-50 mil this weekend putting it at 215 or 220.. Well on it's way to 300 mil..

 

[redfirebird2008]

They're competitors. Looking out for each other doesn't even enter into their minds.

They hurt themselves though. If you open a movie just a week after something brings in $128m in 3.5 days, you are going to be hurt by it. No question about it if it has even halfway decent word of mouth.

 

[kedrell]

I don't disagree.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Prepare to be disappointed because it isn't going to be number one again, Monsters University will be number one and more likely than not WWZ will be number 2. Also being number one again means nothing, it only matters to fanboys who want some strange bragging rights. It not dropping too hard (I'm thinking a 60ish% drop because that's what a lot of big openers drop because of comp) is the goal.

 

[Marvin]

I liked wwZ far more than Legend. But I don't think it's got legends money in it's wheelhouse.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Prepare to be disappointed because it isn't going to be number one again, Monsters University will be number one and more likely than not WWZ will be number 2. Also being number one again means nothing, it only matters to fanboys who want some strange bragging rights. It not dropping too hard (I'm thinking a 60ish% drop because that's what a lot of big openers drop because of comp) is the goal.

It all depends on if WWZ performs like a Brad Pitt movie or not, the highest he ever got was 50 mil. The next number below that was 46. It would need to not perform like a Brad Pitt movie to guarantee it a number 2 spot. Saying MOS is able to pull in 50 mil next week, it'll be seriously neck-and-neck.

Iron Man 2 made 128 in it's first weekend, and 52 in its second. Man of Steel made 128 and seems to have a lot better word of mouth, so I'd say 52 at least is a fair guess.

So saying it gets 52 and saying WWZ performs like a Brad Pitt movie - they'll be seriously close.

I'd even say 52 is a low number since IM2 was met with really mixed word of mouth, whereas MOS (other than a vocal minority here) hasn't. So even if Pitt makes more than a Pitt movie, they still would be running neck and neck best case scenarios for both.

 

[Liam_H]

Placements don't matter except for boasting, its all about the money.

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

$80 mil.

That's it! Whoo thank GAWD then it definitely exceeded their expectations even with the negative critic reviews.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

That's it! Whoo thank GAWD then it definitely exceeded their expectations even with the negative critic reviews.

Smart move on their part. They low-balled their expectations and didn't pull a Paramount and it has paid off so far.