Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[TheNextNolan22]

we just gotta wait and see...
or maybe bring some friends and relatives to boost up MOS during weekends.

****, I'm way a head of you. I'm taking my little sister and cousin to see it this Thursday and I'm taking my step-dad to see it a third time. All in all, it would be end up being my 5th time watching MOS. t:

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

****, I'm way a head of you. I'm taking my little sister and cousin to see it this Thursday and I'm taking my step-dad to see it a third time. All in all, it would be end up being my 5th time watching MOS. t:

 

[rayc1971]

wwz is going to do 40mill tops so man of steel should take 2nd with 45 to 50mill this weekend wwz is being over hyped because of brad pitt he is not that big a boxoffice draw by himself and the zombies in the movie are not the traditional kind.

 

[flickchick85]

I'd really love to see MoS hold strong at #2 this weekend, but I have my doubts that WWZ will do poorly enough for that to happen. I mean, true, I don't see WWZ doing anything approaching "good" numbers (especially relative to its budget), but it wouldn't really have to do that great in order to take that #2 spot.

 

[sf2]

****, I'm way a head of you. I'm taking my little sister and cousin to see it this Thursday and I'm taking my step-dad to see it a third time. All in all, it would be end up being my 5th time watching MOS. t:

just for your reference... i watched SR 8-9 times in cinemas. bringing all my [FONT=&quot]N[/FONT]ephews and nieces[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]

 

[TheScarecrow]

This site is probably the best around for box office tracking. They're predicting a $77m opening weekend for MU and a $40m opening weekend for WWZ. Presumably, MOS will fall somewhere in between.

Excluding Thursday screenings, they fell short on MOS' box office in their prediction by only $5m.

The page can also help us track WOM etc. It shows how much the film is being discussed across social media and comes up with a ratio for positive to negative comments. At this stage, MOS has slightly better WOM among the GA than even The Dark Knight Rises, and has a heavy online presence. This should ensure only a reasonable drop in the Box Office.

http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/movies/superman-man-of-steel-2012?q=man of steel

Did they over estimate OW with SR? I know everyone is talking about these new movies comin out but for me it is still all about is it doing better than the movie it essentially replaced. BTW someone mentioned China, is that really a good market for films to make money.

It's the second largest film market in the world. It's been a bit of a game-changer in terms of domestic vs international grosses.

 

[Liam_H]

Monday looking at around $12.5-13.2M. About a 65-63% drop.

Credit: Rth

 

[TheScarecrow]

Those are great numbers. Iron Man dropped to about $7m on its Monday and that was a 75% drop from the Sunday, and MOS' Sunday was already quite large.

Good indication of legs.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Those legs...they're starting to show.

 

[craigdbfan]

Yes!

Keep squatting MOS and keep those quads nice and big so we can get that sequel.

 

[Liam_H]

Well its not fair to compare June legs with May usually because school is still in session while summer has already started now. I guess one could look at Incredible Hulk or GL but still not a good one for many reasons. So a drop around 65% should be expected, however its looks better since Sunday held so well.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Yes!

Keep squatting MOS and keep those quads nice and big so we can get that sequel.

Very well put my good sir. t:

 

[TheScarecrow]

If these numbers hold I'm predicting about $232,000,000 domestically by the end of next weekend.

Monday (est.) is $12m. Lets say $10m Tues-Thursday. That's a $42m week. Again, if the numbers hold we should be looking at about $17m on Friday, $28m on Saturday and $17m again on Sunday. That's a weekend of $62m.

It seems crazy, but if WOM carries it and it performs similarly to the first Iron Man (which it has been outperforming in terms of % changes) then that's what we're looking at.

If its current performance holds, we're looking at a domestic gross approaching $375m.

EDIT: I had not considered it was vacation time there (I'm not from the US). Let me recalculate...

 

[sf2]

It's the second largest film market in the world. It's been a bit of a game-changer in terms of domestic vs international grosses.

any fans from China? how is the marketing there?

 

[Str8 Rippin]

What's the WW Gross sitting at right now?

 

[TheNextNolan22]

What's the WW Gross sitting at right now?

Currently, $200 million in its first 3 days.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It is pretty crazy how the movie market has changed? Returns which wasn't seen as a real flop or anything grossed only $391m in its entire run.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

The international market has greatly changed since 2006. Most movies would do stronger here in the U.S. than overseas. Hell, that was the case for all the Batman films before TDKR.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't think these movies will cannibalize each other too much.

They're in different genres: kids, zombie and superhero.

It's just going to be a huge weekend at the box office.

Either way, Man of Steel has a good chance at beating the first two Iron Man movies.

I'm predicting 325-335 M at the moment.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I also have a good feeling about 800 m WW.

325 m domestic
+
475 m overseas

That would put Superman firmly in the A-list movie-wise, joining Iron Man, Batman, and Spider-man.

Thor could slso make it in. Who would've thunked it?

 

[Liam_H]

Mos is gonna accumulate $225-230 million domestic by the end of next weekend, 10 days total. That's assuming no drastic holds or drops.

Excluding Twilight movies and SM3. No movie that made that much after 10 days has made less than $350 million domestic. Lowest one is SM2 at $373M. So it appears MoS has a good shot at reaching that total.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Mos is gonna accumulate $225-230 million domestic by the end of next weekend, 10 days total. That's assuming no drastic holds or drops.

Excluding Twilight movies and SM3. No movie that made that much after 10 days has made less than $350 million domestic. Lowest one is SM2 at $373M. So it appears MoS has a good shot at reaching that total.

So do you think 900 m WW is in play?

 

[Liam_H]

International is always tricky cause there isn't any concrete/organized data we can look at to analyze like we have for domestic. But for now I'm going to say $325-350M domestic and around $500M overseas. Might not get there but might get close.

 

[UrNuts2]

International is always tricky cause there isn't any concrete/organized data we can look at to analyze like we have for domestic. But for now I'm going to say $325-350M domestic and around $500M overseas. Might not get there but might get close.

dunno if the 230m mark by next Sun might be a bit optimistic .. i'm at around 215-218m by Sunday & hoping i'm lowballing it .. far as INT goes i'll just be happy if takes down ASM gross at this point .. that would be telling IMO .. the int numbers over this coming weekend is where my interest is at .. we'd have better prediction models after its full 10 day cume

 

[Ms. Marvel]

And I also felt like the reboot left a bad taste in people's mouth. I definitely think people wanted it to see SM4 over a reboot. Even if they continue to release the 5th and 6th Amazing Spider-Man in 2020 and 2022, people are still gonna look back at Raimi's films as the better Spidey film series.

Look at the audience ratings on RT for SM1 and SM3.
Now look at the audience ratings for ASM.
Exactly.

But I may just be biased.....