Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Ms. Marvel]

Ugh, fine we will see who is right by the end of the month.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

71% drop predicted for MOS in weekend 2. you gotta get away from being in denial, word of mouth is sinking this. The critics were right not the fan boys

Or the fact that there's two big blockbusters coming out a week after. There's always that you know....

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

And we are still getting a sequel.

 

[marcvader]

Considering the first hour and twelve minutes is nothing but story and character, this is just a false statement. You could say that you didn't like the story or characters. But, you can't say this was nothing but action for all of it's running time.

I thought all the Krypton stuff happened in the beginning.

 

[Sup3rman81]

71% drop predicted for MOS in weekend 2. you gotta get away from being in denial, word of mouth is sinking this. The critics were right not the fan boys

You are in denial. WoM has been good for this movie. Imdb, metacritic, A- cinemascore, and 82% fan rating on RT prove you are in denial. Its the competition this week not WOM. Its doing great and had it only gone up against WWZ or MU alone it would have done 55 - 60m this weekend easy. WB had to know this was coming.

 

[The Eradicator]

You are in denial. WoM has been good for this movie. Imdb, metacritic, A- cinemascore, and 82% fan rating on RT prove you are in denial. Its the competition this week not WOM. Its doing great and had it only gone up against WWZ or MU alone it would have done 55 - 60m this weekend easy. WB had to know this was coming.

Two blockbusters opening is not enough of an excuse for a drop in the 70% range. SR didn't even have a drop that steep despite going up against stiff competition of its own.

 

[robot]

Or the fact that there's two big blockbusters coming out a week after. There's always that you know....

I am pretty sure it's 80% due to the 2 new blockbusters... Superman is such a big brand, WOM will have less effect... i think WOM is mixed in this case... but loss of showtimes/screens can be a big factor...

 

[Ultimatehero]

Considering the first hour and twelve minutes is nothing but story and character, this is just a false statement. You could say that you didn't like the story or characters. But, you can't say this was nothing but action for all of it's running time.

Exactly. It's just this really odd thing people who hated the film are grasping at. The film is only now. The Smallville fight is 11 minutes. The Metropolis fight is 25 minutes. If you want to add Krypton as having action too, okay, then at most we are looking at 40-43 minutes of a 131 minute film.

Basically 30% of the film is action, while 70% is completely character.

And yet people are saying they threw away character for action? Really? 70% of it was nothing but character.

------

Also since when is 290 - 300 mil a bad thing? It's not a first installment, those contrary to belief have it much much easier than all of these reboots (TAS, 1st Class, Begins, Trek, Royale) and it is the TOP rebooted first installment in a franchise in terms of box office. Since when exactly is this a bad thing? If money talks, then let it talk - it's bringing in more money than any other series that was rebooted.

 

[Stoic]

Or the fact that there's two big blockbusters coming out a week after. There's always that you know....

WWZ had some great marketing going in. Just wait until next to see the fall off. Not sure what the word on The Heat is but that Channing Tatum flick should do well.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You are in denial. WoM has been good for this movie. Imdb, metacritic, A- cinemascore, and 82% fan rating on RT prove you are in denial. Its the competition this week not WOM. Its doing great and had it only gone up against WWZ or MU alone it would have done 55 - 60m this weekend easy. WB had to know this was coming.

I think it obviously has some not good word of mouth but the other two films hurt it as well. Nothing wrong with admitting disappointment with the second weekend numbers because they are disappointing. Only disappointing in the sense that I root on movies I like to make
cash. The big opening weekend practically guarantees sequel though so whatever.

 

[milesalpha]

You're missing the fact that MOS has vanished in many screens.. maybe 1000 screens have dropped it...

Just to give you an idea, a typical cineplex here had MOS playing in 5 screens first week, this week, it was down to 2 screen (and it was still packed)...

And that's a cineplex with 12-20 screens.. the majority of places may have much less screens.. say if htey only have 2 sceens, then MOS would not be playing anymore... even if people there would have prefered to watch it, they would not have a choice...

See my point?

Come next week, they'll lose even more screens.. the the week after that, MOS would have disappeared from a lot of locations... multiply this with the OS market, and yes, it's totally realistic to assume that they would have lost over 200M for MOS...

MOS is still on over 10,000 screens and has the most showings. I could find no significant loss of its position in theatres.

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=screens&sortdate=2013-06-21&p=.htm

I have to stick with what the numbers confirm, word of mouth is not very strong in the general public.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I have to stick with what the numbers confirm, word of mouth is not very strong in the general public.

What does word of mouth exactly say about --

- Star Trek
- Casino Royale
- Batman Begins
- X-Men: First Class

I might be wrong, but I thought the public liked those films?

Man of Steel is currently looking to be the highest grossing reboot.

 

[STARMAN]

It made more in week 1 than I expected and it plunged more in week 2 than I expected. Just shows you I know nothing about the box office.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

71% drop predicted for MOS in weekend 2. you gotta get away from being in denial, word of mouth is sinking this. The critics were right not the fan boys

The movie has 56% on RT. I have not watched the movie but that rating means mixed reactions.

So who's right?? The 56% or the 44%? The critics can not be right because they are divided.

This statement doesn't make any sense.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Comparing SR's box office to MOS's is silly. MOS opened with record numbers while SR did not. Even if you compare it with similar openings, it's. weekend drop in the early 60's% is not good and I'm not going to pretend it is.

 

[Tra-El]

It made more in week 1 than I expected and it plunged more in week 2 than I expected. Just shows you I know nothing about the box office.

Nobody truly knows the power of the box office. I think it's silly to get your underroos in a knot when only 8 days in cinema, opening to a huge BO, June record and OW, only to be followed up by a Pixar Juggernaut and a Brad Pitt WWZ blockbuster Zombie film. The numbers are going to fluctuate and be bent to that stiff competition in week 2, obviously. It's going to be fine. Sequel is all but a lock.

 

[robot]

MOS is still on over 10,000 screens and has the most showings. I could find no significant loss of its position in theatres.

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=screens&sortdate=2013-06-21&p=.htm

I have to stick with what the numbers confirm, word of mouth is not very strong in the general public.

I don't think they updated it.. it's the exact same amount of screens for opening... you can just go online to order tickets and you'll see a huge loss of screens...

 

[milesalpha]

You're missing the fact that MOS has vanished in many screens.. maybe 1000 screens have dropped it...

Just to give you an idea, a typical cineplex here had MOS playing in 5 screens first week, this week, it was down to 2 screen (and it was still packed)...

And that's a cineplex with 12-20 screens.. the majority of places may have much less screens.. say if htey only have 2 sceens, then MOS would not be playing anymore... even if people there would have prefered to watch it, they would not have a choice...

See my point?

Come next week, they'll lose even more screens.. the the week after that, MOS would have disappeared from a lot of locations... multiply this with the OS market, and yes, it's totally realistic to assume that they would have lost over 200M for MOS...

MOS is still on over 10,000 screens and has the most showings. I could find no significant loss of its position in theatres.

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=screens&sortdate=2013-06-21&p=.htm

I have to stick with what the numbers confirm, word of mouth is not very strong in the general public.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Comparing SR's box office to MOS's is silly. MOS opened with record numbers while SR did not. Even if you compare it with similar openings, it's. weekend drop in the early 60's% is not good and I'm not going to pretend it is.

If that was to me bringing up reboots, nope -- talking about every reboot ever made in the last ten (possibly twenty) years.

If money talks and these numbers mean mixed - that means the audience was very mixed on every reboot film. It's just the nature of the reboot.

It's actually making way way way way more than I ever thought it would originally going off of the reboot principle. Reboots have never made a killing at the box office which is why these numbers are remarkable. The first reboot is always designed around returning then making money off of the following.

 

[robot]

Strange, my post seem to have gone above your post, though it was a reply to yours

 

[UrNuts2]

71% drop predicted for MOS in weekend 2. you gotta get away from being in denial, word of mouth is sinking this. The critics were right not the fan boys

71% was the drop for the 2nd FRIDAY .. IM3 dropped 72% on its 2nd Friday .. get ur facts straight before shootin' ur mouth off

 

[Liam_H]

WOM is relative to OW, which is mainly driven by the power of the marketing. How it performs after OW is mainly due to the quality of the movie.

 

[Princess Denise]

I think the 70% drop is not quite accurate because of the huge midnight showing MOS had. If that is not included then it was more of a 65% Friday to Friday drop which still is not wonderful, but isn't quite as disheartening. For me the bigger test is this week's Friday to Saturday differential. If there is not a solid Saturday bump for MOS then I am going to panic that WOM might not be that strong. I think the most optimistic scenario is that Brad Pitt's huge star power and somewhat misleading marketing for WWZ gave it an artificially high opening day and perhaps it will come down to earth on Saturday and Sunday and many will prefer MOS after hearing WWZ was not what they thought it would be. That is what I am hoping anyway.

 

[Skrilla31]

This isn't some no name franchise. It's Superman. It's the franchise. Everything was clicking. The trailers were there, the marketing was there, the interest was there. It was the most talked about movie all summer. People were ready for it. That's why it opened huge.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see how you can place the blame on WWZ or MU. Those films shouldn't be competition for Superman. A great Superman movie that captured the hearts and minds of the public like the original did would have absolutely dominated the box office from here on out.

The buzz for this movie stopped once everyone got a chance to see it. It's that simple.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Here's a pretty strong evidence that MOS's huge drop is due to the crowded space and have very little to do with it's WOM or Quality...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=originshow.htm

You can see the day to day comparison between Spiderman / Ironman / MOS

MOS was way, way higher every day since opening till thursday (thurs was not that much higher due to some TV event in the US for MOS).. but the sudden drop on Fri indicates that the competition just took it's legs out from under it..

This is truly, IMO, is a problem with the release date...

There is no let up from now on too: If MU and WWZ can take out that much leg from under MOS, think what

Next week: White House Down / The Heat combination would do?
Week after: Despicable Me / Lone Ranger (the most potent combination yet)
Then July 12th: Grown Ups / Pacific Rim

Not that MOS didn't already do very well.. but just sad to see $100M vanish due to some scheduling mishap...

robot the problem with your argument is that you're starting with the (completely debatable) premise that MoS is a) definitely an awesome movie with b) great word of mouth and working backwards from there. you're simply choosing the evidence that tends to support your decidedly unproven assumptions and ignoring everything else. Its an inherently weak and flawed rhetorical strategy that is the opposite of persuasive. sorry.

i won't even bother addressing the glaring problems with your whole "scheduling mishap" theory. Res ipsa loquitur.