Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 7

[113]

So does everyone expect this movie to do better than TASM? I would guess so right. Bigger hero.

Lets just say hypothetically
$25 million in Australia
$40 million in Brazil
$50 million in Japan

That's $115 million extra in three countries where it hasn't opened yet!

 

[InJustice]

$39,276,607. It also did well in Japan.

What? But Japan doesn't even get it until August 30th...I can't see Japan being a 30mil effort, especially with bootlegs.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

$39,276,607. It also did well in Japan.

So there is a ton of cash that MOS has the potential to rake in. Australia, Brazil and Japan could contribute anywhere from $75-100 million if we are lucky! Boy some of the H8ers coming here doubting it gets to $600 million suck at math.

 

[Knightstalker]

What? But Japan doesn't even get it until August 30th...I can't see Japan being a 30mil effort, especially with bootlegs.

Be that as it may, but those are the factual numbers ASM did in Japan. Spidey is very popular there. Remains to be seen as to whether MoS can pull of those numbers.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

No in July.

Yeah, unfortunately.

But I'm sure it will do very well; I see a lot of people excited about it.

 

[InJustice]

Be that as it may, but those are the factual numbers ASM did in Japan. Spidey is very popular there. Remains to be seen as to whether MoS can pull of those numbers.

The difference in context is huge though, at least with TASM, Japan actually got an earlier release date according to this site: http://www.theamazingspiderman.com/releasedates/

2 month wait could kill any potential BO earnings.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

What? But Japan doesn't even get it until August 30th...I can't see Japan being a 30mil effort, especially with bootlegs.

Okay go low in all those countries say $20/35/30 and that's still a nice $85 million or so. That's $500 million in the bank, so with what it has left in the markets it is already open in, $600 mill isn't even in doubt IMO.

 

[Red Mask]

So does everyone expect this movie to do better than TASM? I would guess so right. Bigger hero.

Lets just say hypothetically
$25 million in Australia
$40 million in Brazil
$50 million in Japan

That's $115 million extra in three countries where it hasn't opened yet!

It better do better. It's no longer numero uno at the U.S. charts. One week...that's sad.

 

[Knightstalker]

The difference in context is huge though, at least with TASM, Japan actually got an earlier release date according to this site: http://www.theamazingspiderman.com/releasedates/

2 month wait could kill any potential BO earnings.

Possibly, but I don't think it will hurt it too much. Not to say that it do ASM numbers, but you never know. I guess it depends on what else is being relased at the same time also.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

It better do better. It's no longer numero uno at the U.S. charts. One week...that's sad.

What is sad about it? It's at $210 mill Domestic and $400 million WW in just 10 days. In a week or so it may be outpacing WWZ again. And it won't be long before it overhauls FF6 and STID.

 

[Knightstalker]

It better do better. It's no longer numero uno at the U.S. charts. One week...that's sad.

Did you really expect it to still be number 1 the weekend of a new Pixar movie, and a Brad Pitt/Zombie epic? . Pixar films always do extremely well, and as for zombies, well just look at the ratings and popularity of The Walking Dead.

 

[113]

Okay go low in all those countries say $20/35/30 and that's still a nice $85 million or so. That's $500 million in the bank, so with what it has left in the markets it is already open in, $600 mill isn't even in doubt IMO.

Agreed. And people act like because it won't be #1 at the US box office anymore that it will just make $0 from here on out. It will keep racking up weekday and weekend numbers for weeks.

$600 million is a lock. And if TASM can make $750 million, the question is can MoS hit $800+ million?

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

From the perspective that so much of the film is like a live action anime i.e. DBZ/Fist of The North Star, I am really interested in what the Japanese BO is going to turn out to be. Could bootlegs take a bigger bite? Or does anime fan WOM make it a must see in the theatre?

 

[Jordanstine]

What? But Japan doesn't even get it until August 30th...I can't see Japan being a 30mil effort, especially with bootlegs.

Japan's actually one of the only place where Spider-Man is bigger than Superman or even Batman.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Agreed. And people act like because it won't be #1 at the US box office anymore that it will just make $0 from here on out. It will keep racking up weekday and weekend numbers for weeks.

$600 million is a lock. And if TASM can make $750 million, the question is can MoS hit $800+ million?

I'd like to think it is possible.

 

[InJustice]

Possibly, but I don't think it will hurt it too much. Not to say that it do ASM numbers, but you never know. I guess it depends on what else is being relased at the same time also.

Indeed, gonna be an interesting wait-and-see scenario for Japan in August. Like Krypton Inc said, there's a lot of positive WOM from anime/manga fans since they claim the battles are almost anime-esque in design. Could be a hit since Japan loves their anime.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Agreed. And people act like because it won't be #1 at the US box office anymore that it will just make $0 from here on out. It will keep racking up weekday and weekend numbers for weeks.

$600 million is a lock. And if TASM can make $750 million, the question is can MoS hit $800+ million?

Exactly.

 

[Knightstalker]

From the perspective that so much of the film is like a live action anime i.e. DBZ/Fist of The North Star, I am really interested in what the Japanese BO is going to turn out to be. Could bootlegs take a bigger bite? Or does anime fan WOM make it a must see in the theatre?

Yeah I agree, I think the Japanese will really take to it. I just hope WB really markets that angle in Japan.

 

[ArmsHeldOut]

Hah! Was just thinking the same thing!! Great minds eh?

 

[spider-neil]

yeah it is doing fine at the box office only people who expected 1 billion WW should be disappointed

at themselves!!

I thought MoS would do a billion.
ASM did 760m and was coming off the back off the of SM3 so was a much harder sell then MoS coming off the back of Superman Returns.

 

[spider-neil]

Spider-Man is a special case in Japan as had an insanely popular Japanese tv series there.

 

[TheScarecrow]

ASM did 760m and was coming off the back off the of SM3 so was a much harder sell then MoS coming off the back of Superman Returns.

Not at all. Raimi's Spider-man trilogy was the most consistently successful superhero series ever. Superman hasn't had a hit movie since 1980. The fan base was already built for ASM, it wasn't for Superman.

 

[Project862006]

^exactly spiderman didn't need to be modernized for the GA to think he was cool people have always felt spidey was cool superman had the stigma of boring

 

[Knightstalker]

I thought MoS would do a billion.
ASM did 760m and was coming off the back off the of SM3 so was a much harder sell then MoS coming off the back of Superman Returns.

And this is the heart of the problem. Superman Returns is considered a box office failure, whereas SM3 was a huge hit, even if it got a lot of mixed reviews by the fans.
MoS is a reboot, and reboots have never crossed the 1b mark. Batman Begins didn't even crack 400 million WW in its entire run, yet TDK was the first CBM to hit 1B, as did TDKR. MoS is already past the 400 million WW mark after just 11 days.
Some people's expectations for this movie were way over the top, and now that it won't make a billion at the box office, those same people are trying to make out its a box office failure, which is absurd.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Not at all. Raimi's Spider-man trilogy was the most consistently successful superhero series ever. Superman hasn't had a hit movie since 1980. The fan base was already built for ASM, it wasn't for Superman.

Agreed. The two situations are not even comparable.