Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[Marvin]

it just needs to make as much money as possible before those other films start to come out.

 

[ArmsHeldOut]

Don't know if someone mentioned this already but the $5.2 million for Tuesday is no longer just a rumor. BOM updated their site finally. So MoS is at just a bit under $220 million now.

http://boxofficemojo.com/

Nice. MOS went up 14.6%, while WWZ increased by only 4.0%; MU went up 7.5%.

 

[Marvin]

Nice. MOS went up 14.6%, while WWZ increased by only 4.0%; MU went up 7.5%.

seems a bunch of people regretted their decision this past weekend

Any negative conclusions to be made about WOM from this?

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Yes.

Tuesday normally see a slight increase so this is right in line with the expected and the first time it's had a weekday to weekday bump up. Wednesday and Thursday tend to tend down.

4.5 million Monday and 5.2 Tuesday - 9.7 million. Wednesday drops can be 20% that would make it about 4.2 and Thursday could see a 10% drop to 3.8. Mon - Thurs 17.7

Weekend is crucial guys.

If we get a 60% drop it's over - in that the film tops at 270 - 275. If the drop is around 50% (which is high given the 3rd week drops are normally in the mid-40s) that would be 20.5 million or so. Total weekly take 37.7.

So far we haven't seen it but if MOS can hold it's weekend drops to 50% (which is still a significantly larger drop than normal) it could crawl to 285 million total.

At which point WB has the option of doing the slow dance.

Final *** around 246/247/248 million possible by end of Sunday. Hold this weekend is absolutely critical.

LOL you have the talent to put everything in a negative way. But the fact that now you are talking about a drop of 50% while yesterday you talked about a 60% drop, means that you are again in damage control.

 

[Tobias]

LOL you have the talent to put everything in a negative way. But the fact that now you are talking about a drop of 50% while yesterday you talked about a 60% drop, means that you are again in damage control.

No. I am not predicting a drop of 50%. Hoping for one though. Given the pattern so far I'm afraid it will be higher.

Just doing the numbers and comparing what difference a 60% vs 50% drop makes. It means WB can do the slow walk and I bet they'd love that.

In point of fact after week two weekend drops should be in the mid-40s.

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

Man Of Steel has just been released in Australia, here is a review from their Today show:
http://video.au.msn.com/watch/video...48b11-2c69-4d9a-8094-667f8f899b7c%7c%7c%7c%7c

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

People forget MAN OF STEEL is an ORIGIN movie, one that needed to update the character to be takin' SERIOUSLY within the modern audience.

If things go our way, we will get 2 more Superman movies with 2 possible team-ups with JL and WF.

MOS is the groundwork so we CAN get the perfect Superman movie for everybody. We need to accept this and allow the story to evolve into the hero everyone sees in Supes to begin with.

In the end, we will ALL win. MOS was put way too high on the pedestal to perform and had too much pressure.

MOS is a GREAT start and improvements to the "perfect Superman movie" will come in time. With the changes, Snyder and Goyer knew there was going to be a backlash. Lets chill and allow this vision take its course. We deserve a trilogy!

Superman is back!

Exactly, Man Of Steel opened with $117mil, while Batman Begins only opened with $48.7mil, IronJoke $98.6mil, Spider-man $114.8mil. Imagine the hype surrounding the MOS sequel next year!

 

[Snark88]

Exactly, Man Of Steel opened with $117mil, while Batman Begins only opened with $48.7mil, IronJoke $98.6mil, Spider-man $114.8mil. Imagine the hype surrounding the MOS sequel next year!

Except those three films were received well critically and had great WoM, while MoS hasn't exactly. It's had a pretty good WoM but that's it, nothing compared to Iron Man or Spider Man.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

No. I am not predicting a drop of 50%. Hoping for one though. Given the pattern so far I'm afraid it will be higher.

Just doing the numbers and comparing what difference a 60% vs 50% drop makes. It means WB can do the slow walk and I bet they'd love that.

In point of fact after week two weekend drops should be in the mid-40s.

No, yesterday you clearly said that a 60% would be a bad drop. Now that MOS seems to show some legs, you are talking about the 50% "which is still a significantly larger drop than normal".

I don't say that it isn't true, but it is quite impossible to hear from you a good word about MOS.
You are already saying that even a good result could be the result of some not too clear move from the WB.

I say that dspite all MOS can still reach the 300m mark even without showing any incredible legs

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=originshow.htm

will it happen? We don't know, but Superman is again a triple A franchise among sh movies. In 2006 we could only dream a showdown with Spiderman. We had one with X-Men The Last stand and Batman Begins...

 

[113]

No, yesterday you clearly said that a 60% would be a bad drop. Now that MOS seems to show some legs, you are talking about the 50% "which is still a significantly larger drop than normal".

I don't say that it isn't true, but it is quite impossible to hear from you a good word about MOS.
You are already saying that even a good result could be the result of some not too clear move from the WB.

I say that dspite all MOS can still reach the 300m mark even without showing any incredible legs

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=originshow.htm

will it happen? We don't know, but Superman is again a triple A franchise among sh movies. In 2006 we could only dream a showdown with Spiderman. We had one with X-Men The Last stand and Batman Begins...

I'm right there with you still predicting $300 million. I'm still optimistic it will go even higher than that.

 

[kalhawj]

Man Of Steel has just been released in Australia, here is a review from their Today show:
http://video.au.msn.com/watch/video...48b11-2c69-4d9a-8094-667f8f899b7c%7c%7c%7c%7c

Awesome to see MOS is doing it's thing there...

 

[Ita-KalEl]

I'm right there with you still predicting $300 million. I'm still optimistic it will go even higher than that.

Yes it's an optimistic prediction, and above mine (I predicted 275-280 in April), but still possible. I really can't see why MOS should drop so hard every weekend with a word of mouth at least decent.

 

[br0adband]

Man Of Steel has just been released in Australia, here is a review from their Today show:
http://video.au.msn.com/watch/video...48b11-2c69-4d9a-8094-667f8f899b7c%7c%7c%7c%7c

The most awesome part of that for me is the connection between Cavill and Crowe even as Crowe states that there was just something about Henry in those first few moments and questions when Henry met him the first time years ago - and I love "Proof Of Life" myself, it's a great movie.

Then Crowe ends up giving him all those cool things and says basically "If you want it, go out and get it" and years later they're working together.

HOW FREAKIN' COOL IS THAT, I MEAN REALLY.

 

[tomoe]

I think a good way to increase the chances of MOS2 getting big numbers is to hype up the villain, probably Lex Luthor, with a BIG STAR. Otherwise, I don't see the opening weekend of MOS2 being nearly as big as MOS. People don't tend to want to see sequels to mehish movies.

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

I think a good way to increase the chances of MOS2 getting big numbers is to hype up the villain, probably Lex Luthor, with a BIG STAR. Otherwise, I don't see the opening weekend of MOS2 being nearly as big as MOS. People don't tend to want to see sequels to mehish movies.

People just want to see Cavill, hence the June and reboot record. Cavill is all MOS2 needs. Whereas the Batman trilogy needed charismatic villains, because Bale was so meh.

 

[Tra-El]

People just want to see Cavill, hence the June and reboot record. Cavill is all MOS2 needs. Whereas the Batman trilogy needed charismatic villains, because Bale was so meh.

Gotta love Bale, but his Batman was underwhelming to be honest. Sometimes during TDK and TDKR, I actually forgot Batman was in it and was physicked to see Joker and Bane more than the hero himself. Superman, it's like "Dude, Cavill IS Superman.." haha. That's the difference in a potential MOS trilogy!

 

[tomoe]

Gotta love Bale, but his Batman was underwhelming to be honest. Sometimes during TDK and TDKR, I actually forgot Batman was in it and was physicked to see Joker and Bane more than the hero himself. Superman, it's like "Dude, Cavill IS Superman.." haha. That's the difference in a potential MOS trilogy!

Well I did love Cavill, and want to see it again just for him, so you do have a point there haha.

 

[DChero]

Ok, I don't get the Bale bashing, but Cavill's done a great job selling this movie. I do agree that it never hurts to hype up a villain though. Lex can fetch some hype, but it'll take a physical villain to get the audiences attention since that's what it takes to beat Superman. It's like promoting fight. You don't just talk about the favorite, do you?

PS: I'll be happy with this finishing #2 on the year in the box office. That solidifies that WB made the right decision with Snyder/Cavill.

 

[Marvin]

Ok, I don't get the Bale bashing, but Cavill's done a great job selling this movie. I do agree that it never hurts to hype up a villain though. Lex can fetch some hype, but it'll take a physical villain to get the audiences attention since that's what it takes to beat Superman. It's like promoting fight. You don't just talk about the favorite, do you?

PS: I'll be happy with this finishing #2 on the year in the box office. That solidifies that WB made the right decision with Snyder/Cavill.

Catching Fire and the Hobbit two might want to have a word with you(outside).

 

[Marvin]

post avengers I'm curious to see where Thor2 finishes in all of this.
I mean Ironman 3 may have been fun for many(as divisive as it was) but the numbers it put up were clearly if not in part due to the avengers boost. Don't under estimate the power of Whedon. It might end up out grossing MOS domestically or internationally or both who knows.

Then again, avengers was an Ironman film more than it was a Thor one(loki or not).

 

[Jim-El]

Looks like it will do 300 million domestically, however OS could bring the WW total to 700m.
Not too shabby for a re-boot.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

post avengers I'm curious to see where Thor2 finishes in all of this.
I mean Ironman 3 may have been fun for many(as divisive as it was) but the numbers it put up were clearly if not in part due to the avengers boost. Don't under estimate the power of Whedon. It might end up out grossing MOS domestically or internationally or both who knows.

Then again, avengers was an Ironman film more than it was a Thor one(loki or not).

I feel like Thor 2 is going to beat MOS worldwide which is crazy.

If I told people 5 years ago that Iron Man would be bigger than Batman and Thor bigger than Supes I would've been promptly laughed off the internet.

It just goes to show the brilliance of Marvel's strategy.

 

[Angamb]

MOS doing better than Ironman 1 these latest two days, its improving! 219m on USA already.

So yeah, it will reach 300 easily.

And I see it doing 400 in the foreign market. 700m being the first movie is AWESOME. much more than Thor, Captain America or all the x-men movies. A huge hit, if u ask me.

 

[DChero]

Catching Fire and the Hobbit two might want to have a word with you(outside).

Haha! I'm not worried about Catching Fire at all, especially based on the previews, but I definitely forgot about the Hobbit (2?). It should be close.

 

[Xeno]

Yes.

Tuesday normally see a slight increase so this is right in line with the expected and the first time it's had a weekday to weekday bump up. Wednesday and Thursday tend to tend down.

4.5 million Monday and 5.2 Tuesday - 9.7 million. Wednesday drops can be 20% that would make it about 4.2 and Thursday could see a 10% drop to 3.8. Mon - Thurs 17.7

Weekend is crucial guys.

If we get a 60% drop it's over - in that the film tops at 270 - 275. If the drop is around 50% (which is high given the 3rd week drops are normally in the mid-40s) that would be 20.5 million or so. Total weekly take 37.7.

So far we haven't seen it but if MOS can hold it's weekend drops to 50% (which is still a significantly larger drop than normal) it could crawl to 285 million total.

At which point WB has the option of doing the slow dance.

Final *** around 246/247/248 million possible by end of Sunday. Hold this weekend is absolutely critical.

Hold will be critical but in light of MOS's performance thus far and the upcoming competition a drop of >60% is definitely possible. The second weekend drop was far more drastic than the commonly used figure of $116M for its opening weekend suggests when the film's $12M take for Thursday is factored in. Other films that had early Thursday shows had those numbers added to their OW totals. In MOS's case, using the more accurate $128M OW total yields a 67% second weekend drop, which is right on par with Green Lantern.


If MOS continues to follow GL's trajectory it's looking at a third weekend in the mid-teens. A final domestic tally of >$300M will probably be out of reach in that case, unless weekdays are unusually strong. With Despicable Me 2 and The Lone Ranger coming along next week it is destined to plummet even further.