Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[Moridin]

Two weeks later. Essentially, Thor 2 has two weeks to make bank before Jennifer Lawrence comes in, bow and arrow in hand, and crushes everything.

Thor will probably make 450-500 WW. It won't make more since Hunger Game will take most of the WW BO money... People love this movie even though I didn't like it...

The first Thor made $449m WW... TDW is going to increase significantly.
Seriously. Look at IM2's numbers, then look at IM3's. You're saying TDW will barely increase at all? It should hit $600-700m overseas alone.

There's 3 weeks between TDW & CF many places overseas. 2 weeks in the US and other places.

Something people aren't taking into account is the first HG had pretty much no competition before or after for many weeks, let alone something the size of Thor (& The Hobbit 3 weeks after).

While I expect HG:CF will come out ahead in the US (but drop from the first film) the gap will be smaller than you think.
Dark World will blow past it internationally (I don't think HG will pick up much from it's $283m OS) with an audience that's already proved it's interested in seeing where these characters go after Avengers.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

The BO prediction thread? more like the I wish MoS fails thread

From the same people of "TDKR has bombed".

 

[Rowsdower!]

From the same people of "TDKR has bombed".

LOL, yeah.

Also, regarding the "Tomb Raider 2" thing. I think what people are forgetting is that Tomb Raider 2 was a bad movie, and in my opinion, MUCH worse than its predecessor. Tomb Raider was no masterpiece, but I watched the whole thing in the theater and enjoyed it, other than the weak ending. However, I almost didn't get all the way through TR2. The story was much more convoluted, the new characters weren't remotely interesting, and the ending was even worse. I think they TRIED to make it a better film, but failed miserably. As long as MOS 2 doesn't have those types of problems, it should be fine.

 

[Hammer!]

MOS is a moderate success (fiscally at least, creatively is still debatable). Anyone saying its a huge hit or a dud are wrong. I always thought this film would make $550 to $650 million WW.

 

[DorneyDave]

From the same people of "TDKR has bombed".

I remember people trying to spin that box-office into a negative, consequently they were the same people who didn't like the film.

 

[J.Howlett]

The first Thor made $449m WW... TDW is going to increase significantly.
Seriously. Look at IM2's numbers, then look at IM3's. You're saying TDW will barely increase at all? It should hit $600-700m overseas alone.

There's 3 weeks between TDW & CF many places overseas. 2 weeks in the US and other places.

Something people aren't taking into account is the first HG had pretty much no competition before or after for many weeks, let alone something the size of Thor (& The Hobbit 3 weeks after).

While I expect HG:CF will come out ahead in the US (but drop from the first film) the gap will be smaller than you think.
Dark World will blow past it internationally (I don't think HG will pick up much from it's $283m OS) with an audience that's already proved it's interested in seeing where these characters go after Avengers.

Iron Man 3 is the first sequel off the Avengers and it stars the godfather of the MCU. It's the only real franchise that's blockbuster they have.

Again, we'll see when Thor 2 hits. I want it to be great but I just don't see this significant jump everyone else is.

 

[Morcego]

MOS is a moderate success (fiscally at least, creatively is still debatable). Anyone saying its a huge hit or a dud are wrong. I always thought this film would make $550 to $650 million WW.

Exactly.

 

[ares834]

You're saying TDW will barely increase at all? It should hit $600-700m overseas alone.

Eh, that seems far too high of an estimation.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

You of all people don't need to be lecturing anyone about box office after some of your ludicrous predictions through the years. Do I need to remind you of those 200+ opening weekend predictions you made for TDKR? What I said about Man of Steel is 100% correct.

You are quite unfair.
One year ago I predicted for a good BO performance of MOS, 257m in the US and 250-300 overseas. We can say that MOS will do more. But it seems in this forum I don't have the right to be happy and to call MOS a success.

The game "You predicted 1B, so MOS is a failure", IMO is simply trolling.
Then we can discuss about the box office, about how much MOS is frontloaded and so on, but we are not stupid enough to do not understand that the main part of the criticisms are just trolling/lamering.

 

[kalhawj]

Batman Begins had good word of mouth, but is odd how overrated it's run has become in recent years. In summer 2005 alone, MR. AND MRS. SMITH, CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY, and WEDDING CRASHERS all had more impressive staying power. I don't even think BATMAN BEGINS finished 2005 in the top 10 worldwide for the year.

Sure, it held well, but it's 45% 2nd weekend would have been a 51-53% drop had it opened on a Friday and not a Wednesday. Great box office legs are Pirates of the Carribean, which did the same 47 3 day.72 5 day BB did, but finished with 305 to BB's 205.

If Ledger had not passed away prior to release, THE DARK KNIGHT would have opened in the 120s. Still huge, but not even close to the 'phenomenon' it became.



What? This is all incorrect (outside of poor legs) and you know better than that.

New openers last weekend combined for 150 million. This weekend they will combine for nearly 100 million. The weekend after will be well over 100 million.

MOS's bad legs have far less to do with "mixed" WOM and far more to do with a lot of competition over performing. That is just a fact. Word of mouth isn't amazing, but to say it is bad is just as inaccurate as saying it is amazing.
How high MOS 2 opens is highly dependent on story, casting, RELEASE DATE, etc...but it will be significantly higher than MOS, that's for sure.

Get Superman 2 a better release date and better reviews, and it will challenge 400 million.

Well said...

 

[Ita-KalEl]

MOS is a moderate success (fiscally at least, creatively is still debatable). Anyone saying its a huge hit or a dud are wrong. I always thought this film would make $550 to $650 million WW.

Considering that a reboot of a franchise considered "dead" in this message board, is doing the same numbers of the first Iron Man, I say that it is a very successful relaunch.

 

[redfirebird2008]

You are quite unfair.
One year ago I predicted for a good BO performance of MOS, 257m in the US and 250-300 overseas. We can say that MOS will do more. But it seems in this forum I don't have the right to be happy and to call MOS a success.

The game "You predicted 1B, so MOS is a failure", IMO is simply trolling.
Then we can discuss about the box office, about how much MOS is frontloaded and so on, but we are not stupid enough to do not understand that the main part of the criticisms are just trolling/lamering.

Huh? I wasn't even talking to you and I certainly never said MOS was anything other than a success.

 

[Hammer!]

True, but MOS had a budget nearly $100 million dollars more, with the benefit of having an iconic hero, 3D/IMAX ticket sales, a heavy marketing push both domestically and overseas, and a slight inflation. MOS is a moderate success don't get me wrong, but IM's BO run was significantly more impressive all things considered.

 

[kalhawj]

Considering that a reboot of a franchise considered "dead" in this message board, is doing the same numbers of the first Iron Man, I say that it is a very successful relaunch.

Thank you for pointing this out again to everyone...

 

[redfirebird2008]

Reguarding the box office, in my opinion, people are still overreacting.

I would like to wait two weeks before saying that MOS is done.
Reading the numbers, I can not see a disaster

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=originshow.htm

Week 2: Monday

Spiderman:

$5,211,249
-75.2% / -52.8%
$228,251,280 / 11

Iron Man

$3,850,844
-74.2% / -44.5%
$181,675,868 / 11

MOS (estimate)

$4,500,00
- 65.5%
$214,578,153 / 10

I really have difficulties to see the tragedy.

You left out the more important figure. It dropped 64% from last Monday to this Monday. Huge difference between the weekly drops of those three films. I will also say SM1 was a more weekend oriented film. Its second weekend drop was under 40%. MOS's second weekend drop was nearly 65%. The problem for the film is competition will only keep getting worse and worse. It will have to give up screens as newer films come into the market.

 

[Raiden]

Considering that a reboot of a franchise considered "dead" in this message board, is doing the same numbers of the first Iron Man, I say that it is a very successful relaunch.

Well, GA didn't know anything about Iron Man before the first movie came out, unlike MOS which everybody knows Superman by heart, so I don't know if that's a good comparison between the two.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

You left out the more important figure. It dropped 64% from last Monday to this Monday. Huge difference between the weekly drops of those three films. I will also say SM1 was a more weekend oriented film. Its second weekend drop was under 40%. MOS's second weekend drop was nearly 65%. The problem for the film is competition will only keep getting worse and worse. It will have to give up screens as newer films come into the market.

It's true. But I would wait the final gross before saying if MOS is a disappointment or not. I repeat it again: I read the same things about TDKR last year. The incredible success of The Avengers made, for more than someone, the TDKR box office numbers...a failure.
The fact that for a second a lot of people believed/hoped that MOS would have hit 800-900m it doesn't make it a failure.

 

[redfirebird2008]

It's true. But I would wait the final gross before saying if MOS is a disappointment or not. I repeat it again: I read the same things about TDKR last year. The incredible success of The Avengers made, for more than someone, the TDKR box office numbers...a failure.
The fact that for a second a lot of people believed/hoped that MOS would have hit 800-900m it doesn't make it a failure.

It is definitely not a disappointment. Appears headed for $700m or so, which I think is pretty good. I was expecting around $550m.

 

[Hammer!]

It is definitely not a disappointment. Appears headed for $700m or so, which I think is pretty good. I was expecting around $550m.

$700m WW might be a little bit of a stretch. Its looking like it will finish closer to $600 than $700, although it will almost certainly fall in the middle.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Well, GA didn't know anything about Iron Man before the first movie came out, unlike MOS which everybody knows Superman by heart, so I don't know if that's a good comparison between the two.

It's not so simple. At FOX they did an excellent X-Men reboot after a series of successful movies (X-Men: The Last Stand did far more than Superman Returns), but If I remember well, X-Men: First Class did only $353,624,124 world wide.

 

[Poni_Boy]

There's no guarantee with any property, even if it's a good film. The audience just might not be interested.

Dredd

 

[Hammer!]

X-men: First Class is a terrible comparison. Not only is it clearly not a remake, but it came off of two poorly received movies and, besides for a three second uncredited cameo, didn't have the franchise's most popular character.

 

[ares834]

$700m WW might be a little bit of a stretch. Its looking like it will finish closer to $600 than $700, although it will almost certainly fall in the middle.

Don't really see that TBH. Admittedly, I've never been good at reading international numbers but 700 seems to be easily in reach.

 

[Poni_Boy]

It's not so simple. At FOX they did an excellent X-Men reboot after a series of successful movies (X-Men: The Last Stand did far more than Superman Returns), but If I remember well, X-Men: First Class did only $353,624,124 world wide.

X-Men First Class was not marketed to children. No toys. No tie-ins. No TV spots on kids channels. That's the comic book movie bread and butter. Plus Fox only put about 20 mil towards marketing domestically and it didn't have the franchise's flagship hero: Wolverine. It was a huge, huge risk for Fox in an effort to "soft reboot" a dead franchise. Brilliant decision that paid off and will continue to pay off with Days of Future Past.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Man of Steel is not dead. Not even a little bit. It just has poor legs. Even if it was highly praised by critics and had better word of mouth, it would be doing poorly. That's what happens when you sandwich an iffy movie in a release spot it has no right to be in.