Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[Hammer!]

Dredd

Second best CBM in 2012 behind Avengers IMO.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Don't really see that TBH. Admittedly, I've never been good at reading international numbers but 700 seems to be easily in reach.

$700m is definitely in reach. I'm as conservative as anyone and I wouldn't be saying $700m is in play if it wasn't.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

X-men: First Class is a terrible comparison. Not only is it clearly not a remake, but it came off of two poorly received movies and, besides for a three second uncredited cameo, didn't have the franchise's most popular character.

But you can not say that it was not a commercial success, expecially if you look at Superman Returns.
Fox tried a reboot of the successful X-Men Franchise with the excellent First Class, but it made far less than 400m ww.
WB did MOS after the poor recieved SR and made 400m ww in two weeks, but it is a disappointment because it is "Superman".

 

[Hammer!]

But you can not say that it was not a commercial success, expecially if you look at Superman Returns.
Fox tried a reboot of the successful X-Men Franchise with the excellent First Class, but it made far less than 400m ww.
WB did MOS after the poor recieved SR and made 400m ww in two weeks, but it is a disappointment because it is "Superman".

Except FOX can bank on the fact that they have a highly praised movie by critics, which gives them an out for a so-so BO track because a sequel should almost surely do better numbers in that retrospect. Two factors for studios continuing a franchise: positive reviews and high BO numbers.

 

[Poni_Boy]

But you can not say that it was a commercial success, expecially if you look at Superman Returns..Fox tried a reboot of the successful X-Men Franchise with the excellent First Class, but it made far less than 400m ww.
WB did MOS after the poor recieved SR and made 400m ww in two weeks, but it is a disappointment because it is "Superman".

First Class made 350 mil worldwide off of a 160 mil budget. That is a success. You cannot spin it any other way. And that's not even factoring in that it followed two poorly received X-Men movies within 6 years. And that it wasn't marketed to kids. Name one other recent comic book movie featuring popular Marvel or DC characters that wasn't marketed to kids.

And what the hell does First Class have to do with Superman Returns? They aren't comparable even in the slightest.

MOS is absolutely a disappointment. 400 m ww has nothing to do with it.

 

[kalhawj]

Except FOX can bank on the fact that they have a highly praised movie by critics, which gives them an out for a so-so BO track because a sequel should almost surely do better numbers in that retrospect. Two factors for studios continuing a franchise: positive reviews and high BO numbers.

Since when does a critics praised of any value for BO hit.... MOS has both GA positive review and high BO number so far... From your statement I assume you would agree with all of us that a Sequel will be a big hit for MOS 2 if done right...

 

[Poni_Boy]

Second best CBM in 2012 behind Avengers IMO.

I'd say it's the best. And I loved Avengers. Best world building I've seen in a sci-fi movie since District 9

 

[Ita-KalEl]

First Class made 350 mil worldwide off of a 160 mil budget. That is a success. You cannot spin it any other way. And that's not even factoring in that it followed two poorly received X-Men movies within 6 years. And that it wasn't marketed to kids. Name one other recent comic book movie featuring popular Marvel or DC characters that wasn't marketed to kids.

And what the hell does First Class have to do with Superman Returns? They aren't comparable even in the slightest.

MOS is absolutely a disappointment. 400 m ww has nothing to do with it.

So all the words about the marketing, the fact that only the 50% goes to the Studio and only during the first weeks, that the overseas market doesn't care too much, are valid only for DC movies. For Marvel movies it is all revenues .
I suppose that for you, MOS is doing less than First Class even in merchandise.

Now I know that you are only a marvel fanboy.
Don't try to convince me anymore. Thank you .

 

[Snark88]

Man of Steel is not dead. Not even a little bit. It just has poor legs. Even if it was highly praised by critics and had better word of mouth, it would be doing poorly. That's what happens when you sandwich an iffy movie in a release spot it has no right to be in.

I can't agree with that part. If Man of Steel had at least a 80% on RT and had a great WoM, it would definitely be having a better box office intake than it is now. By how much is another debate, but it would not have dropped as much as it did during the 2nd weekend and into the 3rd.

It's obvious that the main reason why Man of Steel has dropped so steeply lately is because of the competition. There's no denying that. But Critics and WoM have most certainly had an effect.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Since when does a critics praised of any valve for BO hit....

It has a lot of value. That's just silly. It depends on the audiences expectations. If they want crazy silly fun (Transformers) they won't wonder why the critics don't like it. If they want something that delivers on its promises of good story, drama and realism (The Dark Knight) they will pay attention.

It's the typical b.s. that happens with every superhero movie not meeting fan expectations. Nobody reads Rotten Tomatoes. Nobody listens to critics. Oh please

 

[Poni_Boy]

I can't agree with that part. If Man of Steel had at least a 80% on RT and had a great WoM, it would definitely be having a better box office intake than it is now. By how much is another debate, but it would not have dropped as much as it did during the 2nd weekend and into the 3rd.

It's obvious that the main reason why Man of Steel has dropped so steeply lately is because of the competition. There's no denying that. But Critics and WoM have most certainly had an effect.

That's the point I was trying to make. I didn't say it would break records, but it would surely be doing better if it had Pacific Rim's or Iron Man 3's slots.

80% on rotten tomatoes doesn't make much difference whatsoever when you are opening a week (Edit: before) a Pixar movie. And then every week after has two popular releases. A few million? Yes. another 60? Hell no

Now I know that you are only a marvel fanboy.

Actually I only read Vertigo but thanks for playing Mr. I'm On a Superhero Fan Site Messageboard Calling People Fanboys

 

[redfirebird2008]

I can't agree with that part. If Man of Steel had at least a 80% on RT and had a great WoM, it would definitely be having a better box office intake than it is now. By how much is another debate, but it would not have dropped as much as it did during the 2nd weekend and into the 3rd.

It's obvious that the main reason why Man of Steel has dropped so steeply lately is because of the competition. There's no denying that. But Critics and WoM have most certainly had an effect.

I don't buy the arguments about Rotten Tomatoes. But WOM with the audience is important. The film showed last week even before MU or WWZ showed up that it didn't have great WOM.

I don't think it has terrible WOM, but even slightly mixed WOM leads to a crap multiplier nowadays. That's what happens in an industry that gets more and more frontloaded with each passing year. Iron Man 3 is going to end up with a 2.35 multiplier and it has "good" WOM.

 

[Snark88]

I don't buy the arguments about Rotten Tomatoes. But WOM with the audience is important. The film showed last week even before MU or WWZ showed up that it didn't have great WOM.

I don't think it has terrible WOM, but even slightly mixed WOM leads to a crap multiplier nowadays. That's what happens in an industry that gets more and more frontloaded with each passing year. Iron Man 3 is going to end up with a 2.35 multiplier and it has "good" WOM.

I really talking about a combination of the two, I know WoM has more weight to it.

 

[Morcego]

It has a lot of value. That's just silly. It depends on the audiences expectations. If they want crazy silly fun (Transformers) they won't wonder why the critics don't like it. If they want something that delivers on its promises of good story, drama and realism (The Dark Knight) they will pay attention.

It's the typical b.s. that happens with every superhero movie not meeting fan expectations. Nobody reads Rotten Tomatoes. Nobody listens to critics. Oh please

Yup, the hipocrisy from some fans is laughable.

 

[Hammer!]

WOM for blockbusters is more accurately determined by BO numbers than anything else. WB doesn't consider people giving the film an 8.0 on IMDB as an indicator that the film has a good WOM when dropping BO numbers say otherwise. Again, this film doesn't have good or bad WOM, it is average.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Word of mouth is important, but not so much when there's wall to wall competition. Audiences have short attention spans. They want to see the BIG NEW THING EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT. Even with a "meh, it was ok" reaction on MOS it would do much better with a few weeks of breathing room. With no room as it is right now, very strong WOM could help it, but not by a lot.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

650 m WW is not a disappointment.

Every penny earned after the summer is profit.

That's better than Batman Begins, Captain America and X-men First Class.

 

[Poni_Boy]

WB doesn't consider people giving the film an 8.0 on IMDB as an indicator that the film has a good WOM

From what I recall someone else stating earlier, all IMDb movies start at 8.5 before any votes are added. Then it goes from there. That's why MOS kepts dropping 0.1 every two days.

650 m WW is not a disappointment.

It hasn't made that yet. When it does, then it can be used to argue the point. It's a disappointment because it doesn't have domestic legs (where they make the most profit) and the studio knows this. It's their fault.

 

[chiefchirpa]

650 m WW is not a disappointment.

Every penny earned after the summer is profit.

That's better than Batman Begins, Captain America and X-men First Class.

Those 3 films had sub $160 million budget and less money to market.

At the end only WB will know if the film is a big success or not.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Those 3 films had sub $150 million budget and less money to market.

At the end only WB will know if the film is a big success or not.

Yes, but I still don't understand why Captain America, with a budget of 140m and a box office of

Domestic: $176,654,505 47.9%
+ Foreign: $191,953,858 52.1%

is considered a success.
Man of Steel with a budget of 225m and a box office of around 600m should be considered a commercial disappointment.

The strange rules of the shh message boards.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yes, but I still don't understand why Captain America, with a budget of 140m and a box office of

Domestic: $176,654,505 47.9%
+ Foreign: $191,953,858 52.1%

is considered a success..

Because math

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Because math

So math is an opinion in this forum.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So math is an opinion in this forum.

Apparently. Need a textbook?

 

[Excel]

Check out the Tomb Raider article posted above by robot. MOS2 is not guaranteed to do better even if it is a better film. Author goes into lots of detail.

That article is hilarious.

You of all people don't need to be lecturing anyone about box office after some of your ludicrous predictions through the years. Do I need to remind you of those 200+ opening weekend predictions you made for TDKR? What I said about Man of Steel is 100% correct.

TDKR would have made 200m without the shooting. And my Skyfall predictions were so off. Child please! Man of Steel's word of mouth is good, but it isn't good ENOUGH to overcome all the new openers! Should have been in July!

 

[Poni_Boy]

Man of Steel's word of mouth is good, but it isn't good ENOUGH to overcome all the new openers! Should have been in July!

Bingo