Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[robot]

Nope. The statements released were something along the lines of "we've come to an undisclosed compromise" which to me means "Disney won but we want to save face and they're ok with that"

Yes, but Disney was asking for 65%.. not 80%, so even if disney won, it's 65%.. where's your source for 80%. You can't just throw up numbers from thin air...

 

[Poni_Boy]

I didn't know that DCE called all the shots on Lantern? Well, no wonder they're not getting another shot.

Yup. That's why they appointed Geoff Johns to the position of Chief Creative Officer. Translation: Scapegoat

 

[Hammer!]

How can one like Green Lantern and hate the Avengers?

 

[Green Goblin]

I say the film will earn around 650 million WW. That's good for a reboot.

 

[J.Howlett]

How can one like Green Lantern and hate the Avengers?

It's quite simple, actually. And I don't hate it. I just don't think it's 1.5 billion dollar box office good. It's merely fun to watch.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yes, but Disney was asking for 65%.. not 80%, so even if disney won, it's 65%.. where's your source for 80%. You can't just throw up numbers from thin air...

As I said before: Oh ok. 65% works too. Either way, the studio didn't budge. Which means they still hold the power with their most popular movies. That was the point you vehemently argued.

80% was the standard front load fee for opening weekend blockbuster movies until 2009/2010. For me, it's hard to believe that every studio readily accepted a 40% dive overnight for every movie. Small ones? Sure. Medium ones? Sure. big budget tentpoles where they want most of their budget back in the first week? Hell no.

 

[robot]

How can one like Green Lantern and hate the Avengers?

Bizzaro world?

 

[Tobias]

So basically, Man of Steel 2 has to make a billion or bust?

How insane is that that a billion is the norm now to some people? This is why my bubbling hate for what the Avengers did to the landscape of this genre is starting to boil over...

Time to get out of the game....

No. I didn't say a billion. I said huge numbers. Instead of the 600 million MOS will make I'd expect they'd want 800 million. Other franchises had this kind of jump in their second outing. Thor2 could be up there this year 700/800 million. WB is going to expect more out of an MOS2 than 600 million when so many other CBM franchises are doing it.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

So basically, Man of Steel 2 has to make a billion or bust?

How insane is that that a billion is the norm now to some people? This is why my bubbling hate for what the Avengers did to the landscape of this genre is starting to boil over...

Time to get out of the game....

Tobias is a funny guy, he rises the bar of bashing every hour.

 

[Poni_Boy]

How can one like Green Lantern and hate the Avengers?

I dunno. One of my writers thinks Sucker Punch is the best action movie ever. It's all subjective really. Then again, I don't let him write movie reviews for me anymore

 

[Hammer!]

The problem for WB is: if MOS 'only makes' $600, how much of a dive would a solo Aquaman, Flash, Wonder Woman take in? After GL, I have a hard time seeing this studio greenlighting $160-200 films for these characters.

 

[Tra-El]

WWZ did bigger than expected and many people have said they didn't seen Man of Steel yet but plan to. Any chance the people who saw WWZ (same audience) go back and see Man of Steel over 4th of July weekend?

I think one of the things that's hurting MOS is the lack of ending credit. I've seen this movie a lot and each time, the packed crowd waits in their seats to find nothing. That could rub people the wrong way....

 

[J.Howlett]

No. I didn't say a billion. I said huge numbers. Instead of the 600 million MOS will make I'd expect they'd want 800 million. Other franchises had this kind of jump in their second outing. Thor2 could be up there this year 700/800 million. WB is going to expect more out of an MOS2 than 600 million when so many other CBM franchises are doing it.

Thor 2 ain't making 700/800 million worldwide. No 'effing way. Of the MCU franchises, Thor's my favorite and I'm hoping the sequel is great but it's not getting that much of a bump.

 

[Tobias]

I wish i lived in the US.. that way i can go to ComicCon with my superman costume!!!!!! t:t:t:

Too cool.

ComiCon should be fun with the Spidey and Cap panels. WB not having anything in 2014 may be why they are not going to be there that I know.

One thing, I dunno if WB has decided what their next CBM will be and internally agreed to go ahead with it but, if they do so in the next month or two and if it's MOS2, they should announce it pronto. Show they have confidence in the franchise and offset some of the mixed WOM and reviews.

 

[Poni_Boy]

The problem for WB is: if MOS 'only makes' $600, how much of a dive would a solo Aquaman, Flash, Wonder Woman take in? After GL, I have a hard time seeing this studio greenlighting $160-200 films for these characters.

That's what I think caused the biggest (and final) rift between Legendary and WB. But maybe that's just me.

 

[J.Howlett]

No. I didn't say a billion. I said huge numbers. Instead of the 600 million MOS will make I'd expect they'd want 800 million. Other franchises had this kind of jump in their second outing. Thor2 could be up there this year 700/800 million. WB is going to expect more out of an MOS2 than 600 million when so many other CBM franchises are doing it.

And how could WB expect 800 million worldwide for MOS when no reboot has ever made that much on it's first trying?

Again, unrealistic expectations for this film.

 

[J.Howlett]

That's what I think caused the biggest (and final) rift between Legendary and WB. But maybe that's just me.

Meaning Legendary would've greenlit those films but WB was apprehensive about it at those prices?

 

[Poni_Boy]

WWZ did bigger than expected and many people have said they didn't seen Man of Steel yet but plan to. Any chance the people who saw WWZ (same audience) go back and see Man of Steel over 4th of July weekend?

Not likely considering Despicable Me 2, The Lone Ranger, White House Down, The Heat and Monsters University will all be newer movies than MOS in theaters that weekend.

 

[redfirebird2008]

It's quite simple, actually. And I don't hate it. I just don't think it's 1.5 billion dollar box office good. It's merely fun to watch.

You can't look at it like that. Do you believe TDK/TDKR are 3 times better than BB? That's what the box office suggests but I don't think very many fans of those three films would say the sequels were that much better.

 

[kalhawj]

Why do you think WB will not green light a sequel? If Batman Begin did only $374,218,673 WW its entire run and MOS did 400 Million in 10 days which franchise do you think is on the right start considering it’s a reboot and it had to live up to STM’s legacy and also clean everyone off the Superman Return’s stink. What's the right choice here? Also, you have to consider that the GA likes MOS with especially with an A- CinemaScore. If they didn't like it you can bet it is down to a B- or C, even the review from GA average 4/5. If BB can get a sequel with a mix GA and pull TDK out of it and everyone that once hated on it or doubted it begin to call it a master piece MOS can do the same. IF WB did not green light the sequel you would have never seen TDK. MOS is now in the same situation. WB knows that they are doing with their two top franchises. The problem was always trying to move on from STM and Superman Return. They have done that with MOS and can finally move on to their share DCU. It would be stupid to start everything over because a few fan boys and GA aren't happy with MOS and how Superman is not like what they wanted. If 85% of the GA loves MOS, 10% mix, 5% hate it why would you not move on with the sequel. It would just set you back 10-15 more years trying to start the franchise again.

Kevin Tsujihara is’t stupide and knows what’s he’s doing with WB. The man knows that this is the time to run with MOS and their JL movie. Everyone knows that just Batman and Superman on the same movie will be huge. One can only imagine what JL can do at the BO is done right. I bet he will establish the DC Studio to focus on bringing MOS 2, World Finest, JL, and all other DC character to the big screen. This is probably why they no longer need Legendary as their partner.

 

[robot]

As I said before: Oh ok. 65% works too. Either way, the studio didn't budge. Which means they still hold the power with their most popular movies. That was the point you vehemently argued.

80% was the standard front load fee for opening weekend blockbuster movies until 2009/2010. For me, it's hard to believe that every studio readily accepted a 40% dive overnight for every movie. Small ones? Sure. Medium ones? Sure. big budget tentpoles where they want most of their budget back in the first week? Hell no.

That's the 'facts'.. unless you have any sources, links to back up what you say.. the 80% don't exist anymore..

I have consistently said between 40-60%.. and the disney raising the bar to 65% is the highest i have seen... so, no way in hell they can get to 80%... give me just ONE example of an 80% now.. even if it's for the OW???

 

[Sup3rman81]

No. I didn't say a billion. I said huge numbers. Instead of the 600 million MOS will make I'd expect they'd want 800 million. Other franchises had this kind of jump in their second outing. Thor2 could be up there this year 700/800 million. WB is going to expect more out of an MOS2 than 600 million when so many other CBM franchises are doing it.

Thor 2 will make more than 1 but its too early to be saying it will make 700 to 800m. It could be a one week wonder and fall off the next week. When does HG2 open? It will crush Thor

 

[Tobias]

The problem for WB is: if MOS 'only makes' $600, how much of a dive would a solo Aquaman, Flash, Wonder Woman take in? After GL, I have a hard time seeing this studio greenlighting $160-200 films for these characters.

They probably said that about IM at one time and volia - first outing it took in 300 million domestic. It's not impossible that WB has a sleeper character - Flash, WW - that could do the same. Come out of nowhere and do 300 million in it's first outing.

 

[J.Howlett]

You can't look at it like that. Do you believe TDK/TDKR are 3 times better than BB? That's what the box office suggests but I don't think very many fans of those three films would say the sequels were that much better.

They're about 1.5 times better than Begins but I see your point.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Meaning Legendary would've greenlit those films but WB was apprehensive about it at those prices?

Well Legendary only puts about 15% of the production budget into those movies, so they can't greenlight anything. But personally I feel that the decision makers of Legendary kept pushing WB over and over to take some bigger and better risks and WB wouldn't have it. That's why they just shrugged and aren't renewing their contract with them.

The guys at Legendary that I've met are smart risk takers, they don't just throw money at the wall hoping it sticks. And they're huge, HUGE genre fans so they want these movies to have a high level of quality. If WB doesn't want to work with them Universal surely would.