Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[kalhawj]

That list doesn't sound too bad for the movie though. I mean, that makes it the #1 non sequel movie up there, right? All of those other movies listed are sequels. Isn't that pretty darn good?

I love coming to this thread, though it stresses me out (because I seriously want a sequel and for this movie to be a hit!). But I am confused by all of the negative posts that at this point, I really don't know what would be considered a good box office total vs a great box office total vs "OMG, this movie is a total failure" box office total. Can anyone tell me what a rationally good box office total would be for this movie? Thanks!

Rest azure and ignor the haters post... MOS is a successful reboot. It's a hit at the BO. Already making 400 mil WW and will probably be at 500 mil after this weekend.

 

[Cantis1]

Thanks, Morcego, kalhawjhttp://forums.superherohype.com/member.php?u=109761, and Liam H!

But how it gets to whatever total it finishes at is also important. A higher opening weekend multiplier is always more desirable than a lower one. Because the former is better news for any potential sequel.

I'm a little confused on this though. So wouldn't that mean that the fact that it was the #1 opener for June and that it did so well it's opening weekend, mean it was already a positive opening?

 

[Poni_Boy]

Fox usually has a huge box office animated film by the name of ice age somewhere in there.
I'm assuming DMe2 is fox? If so, those guys might just take over the animated game if they could only get one more franchise going.

Fox had Epic. It already came out. Didn't do so well.

Other largely talked about animated/kids films are Smurfs 2, Cloudy With A Chance of meatballs 2, Frozen and Turbo

All hit or miss but it wouldn't surprise me if any of them are big grossers (except for Turbo)

 

[Liam_H]

I'm a little confused on this though. So wouldn't that mean that the fact that it was the #1 opener for June and that it did so well it's opening weekend, mean it was already a positive opening?

Yea its undeniable that being having the #1 June opening is a big success, although TF2 would've easily been higher if it had a normal 3 day weekend.

However, if hypothetically it only finishes at $250M with that kind of an opening, which it won't. Then this movie had ***** legs. That does not bode very well for a sequel if WOM couldn't carry it any higher than that.

At one point after the opening weekend this movie had a legit shot at $325M+ so now that is down to $300M at best you can see where some of the negativity comes in.

So I do get a bit annoyed at people who automatically label anybody a hater by saying how much it dropped when all we are doing is just looking at the numbers and interpreting what they mean.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I would switch DM2 and TH2 and maybe MU with Thor 2. Definitely the former.

No way is Thor 2 going to outdo Despicable Me 2 right out the gate. Things couldcontribute to it doing it, but as of right now DM2 is looking like a huge hit.

 

[Liam_H]

No way is Thor 2 going to outdo Despicable Me 2 right out the gate. Things couldcontribute to it doing it, but as of right now DM2 is looking like a huge hit.

I meant I would swap the places of The Hobbit 2 and DM2. And swap MU with Thor 2.

 

[Poni_Boy]

At one point after the opening weekend this movie had a legit shot at $325M+ so now that is down to $300M at best you can see where some of the negativity comes in.

Exactly. That's why I don't get all this "hater" nonsense. Just because you take a few mil off every week or few days doesn't mean you want it to fail. Realistic projections based on how the movie is currently trending. Most people I've seen who have a basic knowledge of bo guesstimation are adjusting their expectations based on the (limited) facts at hand. It would be much easier to track MOS if there wasn't a double header coming at it every freaking weekend

 

[Cantis1]

Yea its undeniable that being having the #1 June opening is a big success, although TF2 would've easily been higher if it had a normal 3 day weekend.

However, if hypothetically it only finishes at $250M with that kind of an opening, which it won't. Then this movie had ***** legs. That does not bode very well for a sequel if WOM couldn't carry it any higher than that.

At one point after the opening weekend this movie had a legit shot at $325M+ so now that is down to $300M at best you can see where some of the negativity comes in.

So I do get a bit annoyed at people who automatically label anybody a hater by saying how much it dropped when all we are doing is just looking at the numbers and interpreting what they mean.

OK. Still a bit confused, but I think I got it for the most part. So the opening weekend was great but it needs to keep going to an overall good box office total.

Welp, I am going to keep my fingers crossed for that!

Thanks!

 

[Rowsdower!]

I still think MOS should have been released a week earlier. It would have had NO competition for two straight weeks.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I meant I would swap the places of The Hobbit 2 and DM2. And swap MU with Thor 2.

Ahh I see. That's also very possible. But The hobbit has a huge advantage being released with very little "spectacle" movie competition

And Monsters U could definitely beat out thor 2 but at this point I don't see it because of DM2 taking most of its thunder

 

[Liam_H]

OK. Still a bit confused, but I think I got it for the most part. So the opening weekend was great but it needs to keep going to an overall good box office total.

Welp, I am going to keep my fingers crossed for that!

Thanks!

To help you understand it a bit better let me put it this way...used this example before actually.

Imagine if MoS only opened with $90M instead of $116/128M. But both scenario gets you to a $300M finish. Which would you prefer?

Me, definitely the $90M because that would mean a 3.3 OW multiplier instead of a 2.3-2.5 one. In this age of frontloading, having legs is very impressive. It would mean to me people are enjoying the movie very much and are getting people to see it. Great potential would await the sequel.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I still think MOS should have been released a week earlier. It would have had NO competition for two straight weeks.

True, but WB wanted to get the first official weekend of the summer (school being out). There's a reason nothing big was scheduled for the first two weeks of June

 

[hafizbat]

I can't really go back and read pages and pages...so can anyone give me a definitive answer, or at least their opinion? The movie has been out a while now so it should be rather clear.

Is MoS successful? Did they succeed in rebooting Superman like Batman Begins? Is a sequel guaranteed? Is it good enough for WB to go forward with JL? Or is MoS a disappointment/failure? Can the MoS franchise ever reach the heights of the TDK trilogy?

That's all I'd like to know

 

[Tra-El]

I don't think it's the numbers not performing up to the high expectations of a BO estimate that are making people angry (some peoples expectations were simply too high and put too much pressure for a reboot to perform with stiff competition) but I think most of the angst is some people constantly throwing around the negativity of the good numbers it DID make and putting their own spin on these numbers to reflect an absolute failure and a total re-haul is upon us.

Regardless, that isn't the case. The numbers, when it's all said and done, should be more than enough to consider it highly successful (it already is) and a solid number to look forward to a sequel and the improvements that come with it.

 

[Liam_H]

Ahh I see. That's also very possible. But The hobbit has a huge advantage being released with very little "spectacle" movie competition

And Monsters U could definitely beat out thor 2 but at this point I don't see it because of DM2 taking most of its thunder

You could be right. But how I see it playing out is...

MU- Around $280-300M finish.
DM2-$350M+
Hobbit 2-$300M+, Basically around the first with maybe a little more.
Thor 2- $250M+

So I see a better chance of Thor 2 beating MU than Hobbit 2 beating DM2.

 

[Liam_H]

I can't really go back and read pages and pages...so can anyone give me a definitive answer, or at least their opinion? The movie has been out a while now so it should be rather clear.

Is MoS successful? Did they succeed in rebooting Superman like Batman Begins? Is a sequel guaranteed? Is it good enough for WB to go forward with JL? Can the MoS franchise ever reach the heights of the TDK trilogy?

That's all I'd like to know

Yes.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Is MoS successful?

Yes

Did they succeed in rebooting Superman like Batman Begins?

No idea

Is a sequel guaranteed?

No

Is it good enough for WB to go forward with JL?

No idea how to answer except that Cavill said something to the effect that they aren't working on JL for awhile

Or is MoS a disappointment/failure?

No way

Can the MoS franchise ever reach the heights of the TDK trilogy?

Yes/no/maybe

That's all I'd like to know

That's all I've got after 2 1/2 weeks

 

[Poni_Boy]

You could be right. But how I see it playing out is...

MU- Around $280-300M finish.
DM2-$350M+
Hobbit 2-$300M+, Basically around the first with maybe a little more.
Thor 2- $250M+

So I see a better chance of Thor 2 beating MU than Hobbit 2 beating DM2.

I could see that

 

[writer0327]

I can't really go back and read pages and pages...so can anyone give me a definitive answer, or at least their opinion? The movie has been out a while now so it should be rather clear.

Is MoS successful? Did they succeed in rebooting Superman like Batman Begins? Is a sequel guaranteed? Is it good enough for WB to go forward with JL? Or is MoS a disappointment/failure? Can the MoS franchise ever reach the heights of the TDK trilogy?

That's all I'd like to know

I'd say its a moderate success, but the word of mouth and bad reviews are hurting it enough to call into question the direction of the sequel and what it should be.

As far as a JLA movie, I think the WW, Flash, and GL films are the ones to worry about, not MOS.

 

[kalhawj]

I can't really go back and read pages and pages...so can anyone give me a definitive answer, or at least their opinion? The movie has been out a while now so it should be rather clear.

Is MoS successful? Did they succeed in rebooting Superman like Batman Begins? Is a sequel guaranteed? Is it good enough for WB to go forward with JL? Or is MoS a disappointment/failure? Can the MoS franchise ever reach the heights of the TDK trilogy?

That's all I'd like to know

Yes it is a successful reboot. It open with the highest OW ever for a reboot. It's still have lots of time to make more money. It already made its money back in 11 days with 400 mil WW. By the end if this weekend I bet it will be at 500 WW.

 

[Morcego]

Yes it is a successful reboot. It open with the highest OW ever for a reboot. It's still have lots of time to make more money. It already made its money back in 11 days with 400 mil WW. By the end if this weekend I bet it will be at 500 WW.

Sorry, but I don't think that's true.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Sorry, but I don't think that's true.

No, it's not. 400 ww is great for being 2 1/2 weeks in but it's what happens next that matters. the studio doesn't pocket the ww gross directly

 

[InJustice]

Sorry, but I don't think that's true.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=superman2012.htm

Domestic: $219,812,745 - 53.9%
+ Foreign: $188,300,000 - 46.1%
= Worldwide: $408,112,745

 

[Showtime]

You know that doesn't mean it actually "made it's money back" right?

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

Sorry, but I don't think that's true.

I was of the impession that at least 85-90% of it's budget was already covered by tie ins and merch. Am I way off? Also there is still a final international tally to be had. Plus a blu ray release... Plus VOD... Plus broadcast/cable rights to negotiate.... So is'nt the term "the rest is gravy" something that applys here? Seems like a lot of gravy to me. Have I missed anything?