Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[DarthSkywalker]

Forget the civil unrest, Man Of Steel box office is what's important.

Don't forget the Confederations Cup. Serious business.

 

[STARMAN]

Of course, the civil unrest is more important than MOS box office. But this is a MOS box office thread and so I'm tying everything to MOS.

 

[ElDuderino]

If Iron Man made $320mm domestic, and MOS is $35mm ahead of where Iron Man was in its run (and currently pacing ahead of Iron Man, with the next two weeks likely pacing ahead of Iron Man as well), then I don't see how anyone could possibly claim that $300mm is out of the picture.

 

[STARMAN]

Iron Man made 51 mill the second week. 31 mill the third week. 26 mill on Memorial day weekend. It had a very low drop-off rate during it's run.

 

[Mr.M]

What major franchises does Warner Bros have without Harry Potter and The Dark Knight?

The Hobbit and...wait for it...

Man of Steel.

There will be a MOS2.

Hobbit is practically done bro. They got six films out of it over 10 years, compared to 8 for Potter over 11ish years. They are short at least 1.5 billion right there, plus the originals were with New Line right? WB did not fully merge with them at the time, hence not as big a return. So between that and Supes, it makes up a mere fraction of the last decade. Disney Pictures is simply going to blow them out of the water at the box office and there is absolutely nothing WB can do about it, outside of being fiscally responsible, tactically resourceful, and more innovative than their competitors.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If Iron Man made $320mm domestic, and MOS is $35mm ahead of where Iron Man was in its run (and currently pacing ahead of Iron Man, with the next two weeks likely pacing ahead of Iron Man as well), then I don't see how anyone could possibly claim that $300mm is out of the picture.

Because the numbers say otherwise. The drop off is too high.

 

[Showtime]

Of course, the civil unrest is more important than MOS box office. But this is a MOS box office thread and so I'm tying everything to MOS.

Ha. I was kidding.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Ha. I was kidding.

I wasn't. Brazil is in the Confederations Cup final. Probably against Spain. Serious business.

 

[metaphysician]

If Iron Man made $320mm domestic, and MOS is $35mm ahead of where Iron Man was in its run (and currently pacing ahead of Iron Man, with the next two weeks likely pacing ahead of Iron Man as well), then I don't see how anyone could possibly claim that $300mm is out of the picture.

Because IM1 had less competition, and MoS' drop rate is higher?

Anyway, I see the issue of budgeting came up again. So, let me just mention: you really shouldn't pay too much attention to the marketing budget. The reason is because marketing dollars are not as "real" as production dollars.

When a studio pays for marketing, a whole hell of a lot of it is "paid" for with barter. When WB contracts with 7-11 to make MoS branded slushies, WB "pays" 7-11 in "license to use our trademark imagery in products", and 7-11 "pays" WB in "promise to make and distribute trademark imaged products." Both get the marketing boost they want, and they can *both* claim on their books to have "paid" the fair market value of those contracts, even though no actual dollars changed hands.

Combine that with stuff like the up front payments for merchandise licensing ( which happens behind the scenes for a lot of movies ), and your best just focusing on the production budget. Production costs are less fungible, because when you pay an actor or a CGI technician, you have to pay them in actual *money*.

 

[ElDuderino]

Iron Man made 51 mill the second week. 31 mill the third week. 26 mill on Memorial day weekend. It had a very low drop-off rate during it's run.

Iron Man made $51 million during the second weekend and MOS did $41 million during its second weekend. Let's assume the same percentage difference applies to both for the next two weekends. That would put MOS at $25 million its 3rd weekend and $21 million in its 4th weekend.

Let's also assume that the weekday totals are the same (although MOS has beaten Iron Man ever single weekday so far, earning nearly $20 million more during weekday performances to date).

Based on those assumptions, after the 4th weekend, MOS should still be ahead of Iron Man's based by $23 million. Of course, there's also the chance that MOS's 4th of July weekend outperforms Iron Man's 4th weekend. And there's also the fact that MOS is doing about 50% better numbers during weekdays.

 

[kalhawj]

Guys... it's a flop... give up... MOS is doom... Superman is done for good... It didn't make any money even though 80% of GA loves it, with 10% mix, and 5% hate it... Even though MOS has the record for June, 400 Mil WW in 11 days and will probably end up at 500 mil WW at the end of this weekend with more country yet to release. OS MOS is doing amazing and still #1 racking in $$. lol... It also holds the record for the highest Reboot opening ever. It hasn't even reach midway through its theater run yet... I hope you guys all know that the industry has change and Studio knows that the money is OS now... If you look at all the top grossing movie ever... all their OS total is 60-70%%+ over domestic. If studio that fail to see this trend they will be left behind... Anyway, all this doesn't matter because to some of you it's still doom... lol

 

[br0adband]

Looks like someone didn't see that Harry Potter image that clearly shows $600M+ worldwide and yet it is/was $167 million in the red...

Making a ton of cash doesn't mean a movie is or will be profitable, as weird as that might sound.

 

[STARMAN]

MOS is not making 25 mill this weekend. You're not going from a 65% drop-off to 48%. Iron Man had a remarkable run. It actually impresses me more than Iron Man 3. It did not lose 50% of it's box office until week 12.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Iron Man made $51 million during the second weekend and MOS did $41 million during its second weekend. Let's assume the same percentage difference applies to both for the next two weekends. That would put MOS at $25 million its 3rd weekend and $21 million in its 4th weekend.

Let's also assume that the weekday totals are the same (although MOS has beaten Iron Man ever single weekday so far, earning nearly $20 million more during weekday performances to date).

Based on those assumptions, after the 4th weekend, MOS should still be ahead of Iron Man's based by $23 million. Of course, there's also the chance that MOS's 4th of July weekend outperforms Iron Man's 4th weekend. And there's also the fact that MOS is doing about 50% better numbers during weekdays.

This is some horrible math and logic. Why would MoS suddenly make $25mil this weekend? That would be around a 40% drop. What makes you think this is going to happen all of suddenly after it lost 65% in its second weekend?

And how in the world do you expect MoS to claim $21mil in its 4th weekend? That would be only a drop of 16% with The Lone Ranger and DM2 coming out. Where did you get these numbers? The Phantom Zone?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I repeat: the WOM of MOS is no worse than the WOM for IM3.
They both have good WOM not great. No need to worry.
They are both fine.

 

[moguy]

Iron Man made $51 million during the second weekend and MOS did $41 million during its second weekend. Let's assume the same percentage difference applies to both for the next two weekends. That would put MOS at $25 million its 3rd weekend and $21 million in its 4th weekend.

Let's also assume that the weekday totals are the same (although MOS has beaten Iron Man ever single weekday so far, earning nearly $20 million more during weekday performances to date).

Based on those assumptions, after the 4th weekend, MOS should still be ahead of Iron Man's based by $23 million. Of course, there's also the chance that MOS's 4th of July weekend outperforms Iron Man's 4th weekend. And there's also the fact that MOS is doing about 50% better numbers during weekdays.

Agreed.

300M is still in play (although no longer a sure thing)

From day 12 on Iron man made an additional 133 Million. Man of Steel only needs 60% of that to hit 300 Million. So even with a significantly worse drop off, it can hit 300 Million.

Based on the numbers so far, the Man of Steel still has a very good shot at 300M.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Agreed.

300M is still in play (although no longer a sure thing)

From day 12 on Iron man made an additional 133 Million. Man of Steel only needs 60% of that to hit 300 Million. So even with a significantly worse drop off, it can hit 300 Million.

Based on the numbers so far, the Man of Steel still has a very good shot at 300M.

I give up. Seriously.

 

[Mysteryman]

After the weekend numbers people might be a bit less rosy about 300 million.
We shall see .

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Looks like someone didn't see that Harry Potter image that clearly shows $600M+ worldwide and yet it is/was $167 million in the red...

Making a ton of cash doesn't mean a movie is or will be profitable, as weird as that might sound.

That was quite deceiving.

Hollywood studios are infamous for creative accounting to avoid heavy taxes on profits.

Truthfully the vast majority of Warner Bros movies don't come close to 650 m WW, even the big budget ones.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

MoS has a remote chance at 300 million. It could happen, but its unlikely. My guess is that after this weekend it will go from "unlikely" to "impossible". We shall see.

STARMAN, your math is completely off, and what's left is mere wishful thinking and conjecture (or both). The foundation of your "predictions" is non-existent. Maybe you should reassess.

 

[moguy]

I give up. Seriously.

I don't have time to read through this whole thread (as it seems to be filled with mostly bickering), so I'm not clear why you are "giving up".

I take it by your reaction, that you don't believe it has a chance of making any where near the 74M it needs to hit 300M. What do you feel the final number will be?

Granted, Iron Man may not be the best example to compare MOS against.

Even if you use Superman Returns as an example, and simply follow the same trajectory(percentage drops not dollars), you'll hit 300M. And that movie typically had larger day to day drops than MOS (with the exception of the second Friday).

Like I said, I don't think it is a sure thing. But I do think there is a chance.

Cheers.

 

[STARMAN]

Joeyjojo72,

I said I don't think MOS can get to 300 mill. What's wrong with my math?

 

[Joeyjojo72]

So sorry man. Mixed you up with someone else. Your math is fine as far as I can tell. Apologies.

 

[ElDuderino]

I give up. Seriously.

That's probably best.

 

[STARMAN]

No problem.