Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[T"Challa]

There really isn't an event movie this year. IM3 looks same old. You either like it or you think "meh" (obviously most of the general audience likes it). Star Trek is a sequel, and people will see it if they enjoyed the first, much like Iron Man. Still not event movies. Pacific Rim isn't an event. The Wolverine? Obviously not. I would say MoS is the event movie this year. It's going to hold better than Iron Man or Trek if the WoM is good. The May movies will be front loaded and dead once MoS comes out.

That sounds more like wishful thinking than anything. And if we're talking the whole year, then Catching Fire will almost certainly be the event of the year, at least domestically

 

[Mysteryman]

EXCELLENT!
Well done, Hopeful Dreamer.
I always love hearing that .
How do your friends react ?
Are they curious about MOS or irritated with you?

 

[Tyrone Parker]

MOS is going to huge.

Can't wait for all the naysayers to eat crow.

 

[Marvin]

That sounds more like wishful thinking than anything. And if we're talking the whole year, then Catching Fire will almost certainly be the event of the year, at least domestically

The hunger games and the lord of the rings installment meet that criteria at the moment. Depending on the way WB sells MoS, it may become an event film pre release.

 

[Mysteryman]

MOS is going to huge.

Can't wait for all the naysayers to eat crow.

MOS, will do well,
But it wont be Avengers Huge, WB simply isnt aiming for that .

 

[Mysteryman]

The hunger games and the lord of the rings installment meet that criteria at the moment. Depending on the way WB sells MoS, it may become an event film pre release.

Just curious, what was the last film to become a Pre Release event film?

 

[T"Challa]

The hunger games and the lord of the rings installment meet that criteria at the moment. Depending on the way WB sells MoS, it may become an event film pre release.

Oh no doubt MOS can become an event film. But Catching fire is coming off a very well-received Hunger Games unlike the Hobbit which had lukewarm reviews. And Jennifer Lawrence's popularity is high as all hell right now coming off a bunch of awards. I honestly believe its going to be the most hyped film of the year.

 

[hopefuldreamer]

EXCELLENT!
Well done, Hopeful Dreamer.
I always love hearing that .
How do your friends react ?
Are they curious about MOS or irritated with you?

Definitely curious. The girls are easy, I just have to show em a pic of Henry and they are like 'I'm there' And most of the guys, even the ones who were like 'Superman's boring, that last film sucked' at least concede that this one looks a lot better and they'll probably go see it after having seen the trailer

 

[mohoo]

MOS, will do well,
But it wont be Avengers Huge, WB simply isnt aiming for that .

I doubt even Marvel was aiming to what Avengers has accomplished

 

[Mysteryman]

That sounds great .
I think MOS will do VERY WELL with Female Audiences .
Not only because of Henry ,but the last Trailer didnt emphasize action as much as story and character ..

 

[snyderrocks]

There really isn't an event movie this year. IM3 looks same old. You either like it or you think "meh" (obviously most of the general audience likes it). Star Trek is a sequel, and people will see it if they enjoyed the first, much like Iron Man. Still not event movies. Pacific Rim isn't an event. The Wolverine? Obviously not. I would say MoS is the event movie this year. It's going to hold better than Iron Man or Trek if the WoM is good. The May movies will be front loaded and dead once MoS comes out.

iron man 3 has Shane black that will better then the avengers but man of steel even if it produce's disappointing box office returns like watchmen did zack snyder's man of steel will still be the best film of the year .

 

[GreenKToo]

I think 600 million ww, more precisely 575/600 mill. anything more than that and it will truly be something special, like tdk type of special.
Now, if this does that well ( 600 mill ) and has great DvD sales, then I think you can aim higher on the guesses and expectations for the sequel. 700 mill + ww. *if there is a sequel..
I just dont see a reboot making more than what I predicted. hope i'm wrong.

 

[Mysteryman]

I doubt even Marvel was aiming to what Avengers has accomplished

the level of saturation in the media last year indicates they were aiming pretty high.
That and just the patience and planning of building Public Awareness through the other movies that led up to The Avengers .

 

[Mysteryman]

I think 600 million ww, more precisely 575/600 mill. anything more than that and it will truly be something special, like tdk type of special.
Now, if this does that well ( 600 mill ) and has great DvD sales, then I think you can aim higher on the guesses and expectations for the sequel. 700 mill + ww.
I just dont see a reboot making more than what I predicted. hope i'm wrong.

That is my thinking as well.
600 million , 700 million tops.
Which isnt bad at all.

 

[BH/HHH]

That is my thinking as well.
600 million , 700 million tops.
Which isnt bad at all.

Yeah this is probably what WBs is expecting if it does more then great :d

 

[snyderrocks]

the level of saturation in the media last year indicates they were aiming pretty high.
That and just the patience and planning of building Public Awareness through the other movies that led up to The Avengers .

marvel studios struck box office gold with the iron man film's and Thor so i could see how the avengers did well with the people .

 

[G.Godfrey]

My big dream is that MOS outguesses TASM. I would be 100% happy with that. With a better (perhaps Late July) release date or marketing at least on par with TDKR (meaning we should have had a trailer by now and a bunch of posters, banners and first TV spot at the end of the month) I think it could. As it is however, I think it's going to make 650 mil WW tops. My prediction would be 320 domestic and 260 int. for a 580 million WW. Im being conservative with the international market as I have no idea how popular Superman or how it could take off. SR didn't do too well overseas. I could potentially see it take off and pass the domestic gross with the WW approaching 700 mil. I'll revisit my prediction a month from now.

 

[GreenKToo]

yeah, too many unknowns right now. I'm sure i'll change my guess a month from now as well. ( hopefully higher )

 

[Astrodust]

I think MoS will do very well overseas if it is seen as a good movie cause it will get the help of 3D. Plus Nolan, Costner, and Crowe probably have some international appeal. I'm thinking if MoS can get a positive score of 85% or higher with critics, it will take in 400 million minimum overseas.

 

[Micromind]

SR didn't do too well overseas. I could potentially see it take off and pass the domestic gross with the WW approaching 700 mil. I'll revisit my prediction a month from now.

SR didn't do well overseas because it did not have enough action and the fact that it was completely overshadowed by much popular Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006).

I just hope that Pixar's Monsters University does not become as popular as POTC 2, otherwise it will be 2006 again.

 

[Marvin]

Just curious, what was the last film to become a Pre Release event film?

The Hobbit/Skyfall.
Both in pre release hype and in post mortem box office.

Before those two would be TDKR/Avengers and Hunger Games.
imo.

There were a crap ton of bombs in between the heavy hitters last year and though this year doesn't look to have as many, as big films dropping, it does have a really good chance of being more consistent.
Our may, may very well bring in more dough than last years may, avengers or no.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

There really isn't an event movie this year. IM3 looks same old. You either like it or you think "meh" (obviously most of the general audience likes it). Star Trek is a sequel, and people will see it if they enjoyed the first, much like Iron Man. Still not event movies. Pacific Rim isn't an event. The Wolverine? Obviously not. I would say MoS is the event movie this year. It's going to hold better than Iron Man or Trek if the WoM is good. The May movies will be front loaded and dead once MoS comes out.

Make up your mind man.

 

[Mr.M]

Make up your mind man.

If you had to pick one.

Also, why didn't WB go with their usual mid July release? Pacific Rim is also WB right? That seems more like a June movie. MoS looks more like a main event movie. Not sure why they'd release it in the sandwich month. I think they could have muscled Wolverine out of there if they really wanted to. Or manybe they just want extra legs from the July 4th Holiday. Should do fine either way.

 

[Marvin]

MoS out grossing Spidey and the rest of those marvel films(mainly internationally)...it will signal Superman's arrival.

 

[Mad Love]

It's kind of impossible for me to judge general audience knowledge of the film, because every single person around me knows about it...

... because I don't shut up about it

hopefuldreamer IS the marketing t:

WB will clone her and parachute her all over the place.